Proof that Jennings will be best PG and Griffin may not be Best PF from Rookie Class

Anyone who was able to see any of the summer league action or read about it found out about Brandon Jennings.  He is ultra quick, not shy, flashy, a risk taker, and to some people, too cocky.  Thats all fine, what he also is, is a very good point guard, who will be the best PG out of this class.  Some summer league stats help back that up.

I already feel that Jennings has the chance to be the star of the draft.  Most of that conjecture is from his placement in his HS class recruiting rankings.  But it is always nice when a theory is backed up by some numbers and Jennings summer league did not disappoint.  Here are some summer league PER stats for rookies.  

                              PER    PPR

Jonny Flynn         21.6   -1

Ty Lawson          21.4  1.11

Jennings             20.7  3.86

S. Curry              16.7   -2.5

Jennings did rate slightly lower than Flynn and Lawson when it came to his Player Efficiency Rating, but for a PG, the main stat is the Pure Point Rating

Pure Point Rating

The most obvious thing a point guard needs to do is to bring the ball up the court and initiate the team’s offense. But after that, a point guard is expected to create points for others, which is judged in box scores as “assists”.

Pure point rating (ppr) was developed by ESPN’s John Hollinger to replace “assist to turnover ratio”. The problem with assist to turnover ratio is that it assumes that a) assists and turnovers are equal and b) all levels of productivity are equal. PPR adjusts for the fact that good point guards play more minutes and get more turnovers because they take more risks with the ball as they create for others.

Hollinger also wisely points out that assists are a three part statistic:

  • The Passer has to pass it to the would be shooter
  • The shooter has to get open
  • The shooter has to make the shot

So Hollinger counts 2/3 of an assist in order to represent the true value of what the passer did.

The full equation

Pure Point Rating = 100 x (League Pace / Team Pace) x ([(Assists x 2/3) - Turnovers] / Minutes)

If you want a good PG, he needs a good PPR  and Jennings had the best rating by far of any rookie in Summer League.  It does not guarantee anything, but it is more evidence that Jennings could be the best PG in this draft class.

The rookie summer league PER ratings also show something interesting in regards to Blake Griffin.  According to the stats, he did not dominate like everybody at ESPN or everywhere else has made it out to be.  He ranked 14thamong rookies in the PER statistic, hardly dominating.  With DeJuan Blair having a better PER and rebounding% than Griffin.  I am not suggesting that Griffin will not be a good player due to his summer league stats.  But I do feel that he is a little overrated due to how watered down college basketball was this season.  He was rated 18th in his class, most of the elite players from his class came out as Freshman, why did he stay?  If he came out as a freshman, would he have been in the top 10.  If Beasley had stayed at Kansas State, would Griffin even been 1st team all conference at center?

Like I stated earlier, I am not suggesting Griffin will not become a good player.  I do feel that with his placement in his recruiting class along with him not dominating summer league that he will not star in the NBA, and will likely be a fringe all star at best.

For Bucks fans, Jodie Meeks also had a very promising summer according to the stats.  He rated 9th among rookies in PER, and had the 2nd best True Shooting % of all rookies.

Tags: Blake Griffin Brandon Jennings Jodie Meeks

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  • Lives In New Jersey, Loves New York

    Sorry Justin, nice post and theory but those summer league stats are practically useless. I was there for most of the summer league games and Jennings was good. But, first the competition is uneven as the goal of the games isn’t always to win but to evaluate players; second, not all of the players were allowed to play their games at all times (for example Griffin tended to play all out and his play was moderated to avoid injury in the Summer League; Gerald Henderson got a lot of opportunities, as a nod to the Bobcats, when he played alongside Flynn on the Timberwolves’ Vegas entry thereby diluting Flynn’s efficiency)

    Blake Griffin was by far the superior talent in the summer league. He was a must see. Jennings was very good, but he did not show the strength, maturity and skill of either Jonny Flynn, Ty Lawson or James Harden. But Jennings was very good — better than I thought he would be.

    The bottom line is that Summer League Stats are not a good indicator of who is better, but you should be happy at the chance to have him lead your team.

  • Justin Malaise

    I agree the summer league is generally not an even playing field and tough to guage. I am not as sold on Blake Griffin due to the fact he is so physically dominant in his Sophmore year, but he will not be able to just outmuscle guys in the NBA. I was looking for any validation, and was surprised his numbers were not greater.

    For Jennings, he needs a lot of polish, but the fact he was closer to really good, and far from disaster is a good sign for us beaten down Buck fans.

    There isn’t much else that can beat the eye-ball test, since you were there I appreciate the feedback.

  • Lives In New Jersey, Loves New York

    My pleasure Justin. Feel free to stop by Knicks Fanatics when our teams play each other. We usually Live Blog every game and would appreciate your input.
    I stopped by to see what you guys were saying about Sessions. I can’t make heads or tells of this situation. It seems to really be screwing with Knicks’ management.

    Regarding, Griffin, I suggest that you not form your opinion just yet and go see him play. I felt exactly the same way as you before I saw him against the almost NBA level competition. Anyone there will tell you this guy is the “real deal” because his game is far more than muscle. He was a treat to watch. It is unfortunate that he is a Clipper.

    What was really a revelation was 1) his really good handle, 2) excellent pin-point passing on the move. 3) refusal to take crazy shots or to force them and the killer was his constant motion on defense with one eye on the ball; he always seemed to be in position to rebound the ball as though he knew where the ball would bounce off the rim. Very few guys (Rodman comes to mind) studied the ball like that. He was so much more impressive than our guy Jordan Hill and that unfortunate pick, Thabeet.

    I’m not asking you to believe me; just make sure you go and see him live when he hits BrewTown. And if you don’t have manlove (LOL) for him then, I’ll leave the topic alone.

    Thanks for the response. Good luck on your season.

  • Lives In New Jersey, Loves New York

    Forgot. Visit Knicks Fanatics here or put this address in your browser

  • Justin

    At this point I have no idea what to make of the Sessions deal either. I just wish something would happen.

    I still have an open mind regarding Griffen, and will take your observations into consideration. I do think it could hurt him playing with a PG in Davis that dominates the ball. It will be interesting to see how many touches he gets.

  • Nova Follis

    Extremely interesting blog post thank you for writing it I have added your website to my bookmarks and will check back.