Proof that Jennings will be best PG and Griffin may not be Best PF from Rookie Class

Anyone who was able to see any of the summer league action or read about it found out about Brandon Jennings.  He is ultra quick, not shy, flashy, a risk taker, and to some people, too cocky.  Thats all fine, what he also is, is a very good point guard, who will be the best PG out of this class.  Some summer league stats help back that up.

I already feel that Jennings has the chance to be the star of the draft.  Most of that conjecture is from his placement in his HS class recruiting rankings.  But it is always nice when a theory is backed up by some numbers and Jennings summer league did not disappoint.  Here are some summer league PER stats for rookies.  

                              PER    PPR

Jonny Flynn         21.6   -1

Ty Lawson          21.4  1.11

Jennings             20.7  3.86

S. Curry              16.7   -2.5

Jennings did rate slightly lower than Flynn and Lawson when it came to his Player Efficiency Rating, but for a PG, the main stat is the Pure Point Rating

Pure Point Rating

The most obvious thing a point guard needs to do is to bring the ball up the court and initiate the team’s offense. But after that, a point guard is expected to create points for others, which is judged in box scores as “assists”.

Pure point rating (ppr) was developed by ESPN’s John Hollinger to replace “assist to turnover ratio”. The problem with assist to turnover ratio is that it assumes that a) assists and turnovers are equal and b) all levels of productivity are equal. PPR adjusts for the fact that good point guards play more minutes and get more turnovers because they take more risks with the ball as they create for others.

Hollinger also wisely points out that assists are a three part statistic:

  • The Passer has to pass it to the would be shooter
  • The shooter has to get open
  • The shooter has to make the shot

So Hollinger counts 2/3 of an assist in order to represent the true value of what the passer did.

The full equation

Pure Point Rating = 100 x (League Pace / Team Pace) x ([(Assists x 2/3) - Turnovers] / Minutes)

If you want a good PG, he needs a good PPR  and Jennings had the best rating by far of any rookie in Summer League.  It does not guarantee anything, but it is more evidence that Jennings could be the best PG in this draft class.

The rookie summer league PER ratings also show something interesting in regards to Blake Griffin.  According to the stats, he did not dominate like everybody at ESPN or everywhere else has made it out to be.  He ranked 14thamong rookies in the PER statistic, hardly dominating.  With DeJuan Blair having a better PER and rebounding% than Griffin.  I am not suggesting that Griffin will not be a good player due to his summer league stats.  But I do feel that he is a little overrated due to how watered down college basketball was this season.  He was rated 18th in his class, most of the elite players from his class came out as Freshman, why did he stay?  If he came out as a freshman, would he have been in the top 10.  If Beasley had stayed at Kansas State, would Griffin even been 1st team all conference at center?

Like I stated earlier, I am not suggesting Griffin will not become a good player.  I do feel that with his placement in his recruiting class along with him not dominating summer league that he will not star in the NBA, and will likely be a fringe all star at best.

For Bucks fans, Jodie Meeks also had a very promising summer according to the stats.  He rated 9th among rookies in PER, and had the 2nd best True Shooting % of all rookies.

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Tags: Blake Griffin Brandon Jennings Jodie Meeks

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