Syracuse-Georgetown Pick

This is a great day for the conference tourneys.  When the teams care the conference tourneys can be just as good as a the majority of the NCAA tourney due to the rivalries and the fact that it is big boys against big boys.  Sometimes the NCAA has too many upsets, which are exciting in the moment, but they take away higher profile matchups.  These matchups cannot be avoiding in conference tourneys.

Syracuse-Georgetown

Line: Syracuse -6.5   O/U 139

Syracuse won both regular season matchups, 75-71 and 73-56.

This is a treat to get such a great matchup this early in a conference tournament.  Syracuse is rated #4 in the Pomeroy Ratings, Georgetown is #15.  These are too really good teams that can both make a run in the NCAA tourney, hopefully they both come to play.

The teams are pretty even, Syracuse scores at a slightly higher rate per possession 117.5-115.1, and hold opponents on defense slightly better 88.3-90.7.  By stats alone this amounts to a 4.8 points per possession advantage, factored over the projected 69 possessions give the Cuse a minimal 3 point edge.  These general stats really tell us nothing.

In looking for a matchup of strength versus weakness I look to the four major factors below.

Effective Field Goal%:  Both teams shoot well and do a decent job holding down the opponents effective field goal%. Even

Turnover%:  Syracuse is ranked 48th in the country at creating turnovers, Georgetown is below average at taking care of the ball, ranked 231st.  Syracuse

Off Reb%:  Syracuse is strong at getting offensive rebounds, ranked 29th, but weak on the defensive glass, ranked 282.  Georgetown is below average at offensive rebounding 198 and average on defense 142.  I think this evens out.  Even

Free Throw%: Neither team gets to the line at an above average rate, but Syracuse is the 5th rated team at allowing free throw attempts.  This is not a huge factor since Georgetown does not depend on getting to the line but it is an advantage.  syracuse

Misc Stats:  Georgetown is slightly better at 3pt%.  Both teams are exceptional at 2pt%.  Syracuse is a dominant Block% team, on offense they do not get blocked ranked 5th, on defense they are ranked 3rd in blocks.  While Georgetown is also good at getting blocks, 21st, they also get blocked 267th.  To go along with the turnover battle from before Syracuse is the 4th best team in the country at forcing Steals.  Syracuse

Pick:  Syracuse

There is no advantage for Georgetown.  In everything that Georgetown is good at, Syracuse is just as good if not better.  Syracuse also forces more turnovers and gets more blocks, leading to extra possessions.  Georgetown’s best chance in this game would be to slow it down and limit possessions to cut down on the overall number of possessions.  Otherwise, the more possessions this game has due to a faster pace the more likely Syracuse gets another block or steal which leads to dunks.  The problem with that is this Georgetown team plays much better at a faster pace.

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