Since the NBA off-season has started to slow down with moves I thought this as good as any time to throw out what I think Vegas will set the Bucks over/under number at. In 2009-2010 the Bucks were listed at 28.5 which they obliterated by winning 46.
Vegas usually does not like to go wild, they keep things closer to the middle to entice action on both sides. They had to realize fairly early last season that the over was going to hit for the Bucks. Once Brandon Jennings showed he was a star in the making and Andrew Bogut proved he was healthy the Bucks looked like a team that could get to 40 wins. When they had some other players step up, Ersan Ilyasova and Carlos Delfino, along with adding John Salmons, and maybe the biggest addition, Michael Redd going out for the year, the Bucks were able to push the total to 46.
When teams come out of nowhere to really surprise, and breaking your over/under by almost 20 games definitely qualifies as a surprise, Vegas will not over-react and set this number at over 50. Teams that surprise usually take a small step back, for the Bucks, with the additions they have made, taking a step back could be another 46 win season.
If the Bucks would have stood pat with what they had I think the Vegas number would have been around 40, which still would have been a huge leap over last season’s 28.5. They would recognize the Bucks were better than they thought, but not ready to make them a lock playoff team by giving them a total over .500.
But…. the Bucks have added pieces, several pieces. They resigned John Salmons, added Drew Gooden, Corey Maggette, Chris Douglas Roberts, Larry Sanders and John Brockman. They even added a serviceable backup point guard, Keyon Dooling, to replace their only notable loss, Luke Ridnour to the Minnesota Timberwolves, who by the way I have no idea what in the hell that team is doing but that might be worth a whole separate blog article. The Bucks were not very impressive on paper last year with the moves they made, this year their list of moves is very impressive. Take out what the Miami Heat have done with adding Lebron James and Chris Bosh with Dwayne Wade and I think the Bucks are the off-season winner of the NBA.
Vegas will have to recognize the Bucks will be in playoff contention, and may clinch a spot fairly early. Vegas will also have to recognize their will be several really bad teams that winning teams like the Bucks can pile up wins against. even with all of this I still think Vegas will error on the conservative side and only slightly go beyond the 46 that the Bucks posted last year.
My Prediction 47.5