Bucks Poor Shooting Dropping Brandon Jennings PER PG Ranking; NFL Week 14 Picks

Brandon Jennings and the Bucks shooting woes are killing Brandon Jennings PER.  ESPN has the point guard rankings according to each players Player Efficiency Rating(PER) and Jennings ranks 18th in point guards.

The top three are Chris Paul, Russel Westbrook and Deron Williams according to PER and common sense.  I have no issue with those three other than Rajon Rondo belongs in the top three but not according to PER.  Rondo is 12th.  Much too low but the stats are the stats.

Jennings has two low numbers that are killing his PER, his own total shooting %(TS%) is only .504 and his assist ratio is 20.7.  Jennings is not within 20 points of anybody above him in shooting and only one player, Shannon Brown(a statistical outlier due to small minutes and great shooting) above Jennings has a lower assist rate.  Jennings will never be a pure distributor who averages 10+ assists per game but if he would ever get some free-bee assists on open jumpers he creates this number would be much higher.  Or simply said, the Bucks horrible shooting brings this number way down.

I also think the Bucks horrible shooting forces Jennings into some more poor shots which brings down his own shooting rating as well.  If the Bucks just were able to rise into slightly below average in shooting as opposed to the worst f@*cking shooting team in the history of the league Jennings would jump into the top seven or eight very easily.

In the five other stats the factor into the PER here are Jennings ranks in relation to other point guards.

Turnover Ratio: Jennings has a 9.4, Chris Paul has a 9.5, Jose Calderon has a 9.6, nobody else is in single digits among the top eighteen PER point guards.

Usage Rate:  Jennings has a 26.4 which is better than 14 of the players ahead of him

Offensive Rebound Rate:  Jennings has a 2.6 which is better than 11 of the players ahead of him.

Defensive Rebound Rate: Jennings has a 11.6 which is better than 16 of the players ahead of him.

Rebound Rate: Jennings has a 6.8 which is better than 13 of the players ahead of him.

Jennings is in or near the top five in all the other categories yet the shooting is killing his rating.  If the Bucks ever start knocking down shots I predict both TS% and Assist ratio for Jennings will go up allowing him to fly up the PER rating.

NFL Picks

Raiders @ Jags -4 - West Coast team in the early game on the East Coast.  A gambling gem.

Bengals@ Steelers -8.5 – I do not like betting on the Ravens or Steelers after they play each other, did you see that game.  Or any of their games in the past five years?  The whirlpools in Pittsburgh and Baltimore had to be full this week.

Patriots -3 @ Bears - I hate this Bears team and do feel they are one of the worst good teams in a long time, all the stats support that.  But they are getting a lot of breaks this year, schedule included.  They got to face the Eagles after they were feeling too good about themselves and the same thing here with the Pats.  The field in Chicago is an embarrassment for an NFL field to be that bad but it will help them again here.  The Eagles, Pats and Packers passing games depend on precision and timing and the horrible field in Chicago destroys that timing and precision.  I think the Bears will start losing next week when they are expected to win at Minnesota.

Browns @ Bills -1 – The Browns remain the best bad team in the league.

Giants -3 @ Vikings - The Giants may get lucky here is Jackson starts but I still think they also are not very good for a good team.

Packers -6.5 @ Lions – See Next Pick

Falcons -7 @ Panthers – The Falcons and Packers will meet again in the playoffs, NFC Champ Game.  They will both roll this week.

Bucs -2@ Redskins – The Skins suck, at least the Bucs try every week.  I cannot bet on quitters.

Rams @ Saints -9 - Not sure how the Rams will score enough to stay in it.

Seahawks @ 49ers -5.5 – All of these West teams suck, take the points.

Dolphins @ Jets -5.5 – The Jets are classic bullies.  They have been beaten, somewhat handily by the Packers, Ravens(even though it was close it felt like Baltimore was dominating) and Patriots.  Here they beat up on a weakling who is hanging on by a thread that breaks this week.

Broncos -4.5 @ Cardinals – Who cares.

Chiefs @ Chargers -7  – The Chargers bounce back and forth between pretender and contender more than any team I can ever remember.

Eagles -3.5@ Cowboys – I think Vick explodes in prime-time again.

Ravens -3 @ Texans  - The Texans got extra rest after a Thursday game while Baltimore suffered a tough loss to Pittsburgh.  Tough spot for the Ravens to travel.

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