Purdue plays a style that gives Wisconsin troubles. They pick you up in aggressive man to man defense and this has given the Badgers trouble in the past getting into their offense. Purdue has won three of the last four games.
Effective Field Goal %: The Badgers have a slight edge on both the offensive and defensive EFG%. The Badgers shoot 52.4%, while surrendering 45.2%. Purdue shoots 51.7% and surrenders 46.2%.
Turnovers: Purdue does rely on forcing turnovers and the Badgers lead the country in protecting the ball on offense. I would expect the Badgers protect the ball very well tonigh at home.
Rebounding: The Badgers have a slight rebounding edge as well, they haul in 35.1% if their misses on offense while only allowing the other team to bring in 29% of their misses. Purdue brings in 34.4% and allows 30%.
3 Point Shooting: The Badgers shoot 37.3% and allow 34.8%, Purdue shoots 38.6%, allows 33.9%.
Miscellaneous: The Badgers are the best free throw shooting team in the country at an astounding 81.8%, but they are among the worst in the country at actually getting to the line. The Badgers are in the top ten in both not giving up steals or giving up blocked shots but Purdue is not particularly strong in forcing either on defense. As usual, the Badgers are among the worst in the country at forcing turnovers and creating steals.
I think this game comes down to Pudue’s tight man to man defense not allowing the Badgers to get off enough three point shots, which they have become dependant on this season. The Badgers do not possess enough guys that can beat their man off of the dribble and that hurts them here. The Badgers are favored by 5 points tonight and even though they are tough at home I am going with Purdue to cover and possibly win outright.