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Feb 26, 2013; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks power forward Elton Brand (42) blocks a shot by Milwaukee Bucks point guard Brandon Jennings (3) during the second half at the American Airlines Center. The Bucks defeated the Mavericks 95-90. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Three Slightly Damning Shooting Splits for Brandon Jennings

Here are three charming shooting splits for Jennings to take into consideration when considering his overall numbers for the season.  I’ll leave it to you to decide whether they mean anything or not.

1)  Jennings fares much better when one team has a substantial lead.  When the game is close, his numbers suffer.

When the lead (for the Bucks or their opposition) is larger than 10 points, Jennings converts 44.2% of his field goal attempts.  When the game gets closer — within 10 points or tied — Jennings’ field-goal percentage dips to 38.2%.

His three-point shooting swoops by an even larger margin in those closer games, taking a fairly staggering drop (over 10%!) from 44.9% to 34.8%.

Granted, defenses tend to get a bit softer in proportion to the size of the lead, but if Jennings can’t reasonably produce for his team in close games, is he worth ‘face of the franchise’-type of money?

2)  Jennings’ numbers take a big dip in the fourth quarter.

His field goal percentage in the first three quarters of a game is 41.2%  In the fourth quarter and overtime, that number sinks to 34.5%.

(If you prefer eFG%, which weighs in the added value of a three-point shot, the difference is 47.9% vs. 41.0%, i.e., a comparable drop.)

If you take Jennings out of the team numbers, the Bucks are fairly consistent across all quarters (with a slight positive bump up for the second quarter), so this dip isn’t team-wide. It’s largely unique to Brandon.

3)  Jennings misses with great regularity in the painted area.  On the season, he has made 42.8% of his shots in the paint.

(Numbers from Vorped.com). For comparison’s sake, if the Bucks bring Jennings back, here is a list of the point guards for the Central Division heading into next season along with their field goal percentages in the paint. (All percentages are from this season, except for Rose’s, which is from 2011-12.)

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George Hill 58.6%
Derrick Rose 52.9% **
Kyrie Irving 50.9%
Brandon Knight 47.7% / Jose Calderon 57.7%
Brandon Jennings 42.8%

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Keep calm and take 10 to 12 million grains of salt (annually) into your next contract negotiation.

Tags: Brandon Jennings Milwaukee Bucks

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