Realistic Goals For The 2015-16 Milwaukee Bucks

Have there ever been higher expectations for a team without a single All-Star?

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Probably not.

Yet here we are, roughly a month away from the start of training camp and the Milwaukee Bucks are set to field a roster with loftier expectations than Star Wars: The Force Awakens, but with less proven pedigree than an early Quentin Tarantino film.

There’s little debate that someone will finally step up and play at an All-Star level, becoming the first Milwaukee Bucks All-Star since Michael Redd (2004).

Perhaps that’s why expectations feel so high for the Bucks. Because for the first time since Ray Allen, Milwaukee has a young, affable, sky-is-the-limit star in Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Not only that, but there’s his sidekick Jabari Parker whose face was plastered all over the NBA Finals through Gatorade promotions. Two star players who’s combined age (40) matches that of Milwaukee’s last superstar.

The future is imminent for Milwaukee–but that’s not the reason fans expect an elite team now.

The future is imminent for Milwaukee–but that’s not the reason fans expect an elite team now. There’s more.

The wave of: new ownership, Jason Kidd’s virtuoso coaching, new branding, the new arena, and Greg Monroe’s surprise signing has fans sipping more sugary kool-aid than ever. They are all key links in a growing antler-link chain. But none of those moves, on their own merits, is strong enough to generate the hype winds that are blowing through Milwaukee.

Not even the chain of great moves itself is enough to explain exactly why fans can’t wait for October 28th.

Expectations are high because for the first time in well over a decade we head into the season knowing the Bucks will be good.

How good? That remains to be seen.

The most ambitious of fans expect the Bucks to challenge for a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals. They’re not alone. Upon hearing the news that the Bucks signed Greg Monroe, sports aficionado and media celebrity Dan Patrick made this bold prediction.

You heard the man: “Pencil them in”.

While such rampant success so soon wouldn’t be unprecedented (the 2010-11 Oklahoma City Thunder jumped from 8 seed to Western Conference finalist) is it reasonable to expect so much from a team that’s proven so little?

Maybe not.

ESPN.com’s annual Summer Forecast has the Bucks finishing 7th in the Eastern Conference with a 44-38 record (just a three game improvement over last season). If Dan Patrick’s lofty E.C.F. prediction was ambitious than ESPN’s prediction is downright pessimistic.

How on earth can a team that traded away it’s top-scorer challenge the mighty Chicago Bulls in the playoffs just months later? How can that same team add Greg Monroe and a healthy Jabari Parker and only win three more games than last season? Its preposterous. There’s no way that duo makes just a 1.5 game each difference.

Throw in the off-season progression of Giannis Antetokounmpo (who’s been killing it with the Greek national team), and Michael Carter-Williams (who spent time with Team USA) and a 44-38 record seems downright silly.

But that’s where this Bucks team stands. Polarizing. On one hand you have a squad of world beaters complete with a pair of potential superstars (the Own the Future duo). On the other hand there’s questions at every position.

Can Michael Carter-Williams make a jumper? Will Giannis develop his three point game? Can Jabari Parker return completely healthy? Will Greg Monroe hamstring the defense?

Can Michael Carter-Williams make a jumper? Will Giannis develop his three point game? Can Jabari Parker return completely healthy? Will Greg Monroe hamstring the defense? All of these questions and more will swirl around the team when they take the floor in October.

For every opinion that has the Bucks taking a major stride forward and heading to the E.C.F. there’s another, more sobering opinion that has them finishing in the bottom half of the beleaguered Eastern Conference. Hell, SI.com’s projected standing doesn’t even have the Bucks qualifying for the playoffs. They’re the odd man out, finishing in ninth position with a 40-44 record.

From where we stand right now the chances of the Bucks missing the playoffs are about as high as their chances of making the E.C.F. Possible, but not likely.

For one the Cleveland Cavaliers still play in the Eastern Conference. So do the Atlanta Hawks. Who, despite their disappointing broom-job in the conference finals last season are contenders should they remain healthy (despite the loss of DeMarre Carroll).

Then there’s the Chicago Bulls. Does the addition of Greg Monroe provide enough horsepower for the Bucks to get past the Bulls? He will certainly bring much needed rebounding to the Bucks vs. Bulls match-up. In last season’s first round playoffs series the Bucks only out-rebounded the Bulls once, 48-45 in Game 5, and were out-rebounded 300-262 overall in the six-game series. Greg Monroe’s 10.2 rebounds per game should help with that.

If the Cavaliers, Hawks, and Bulls finish 1-2-3 in the Eastern Conference (and they should) that leaves the fourth seed more open than the presidential race.

The contenders for the fourth seed are: Miami, Toronto, Milwaukee, and Washington. Each team has their own strengths and weaknesses. Each comes in with as many questions as the next. And with the exception of Miami, each hoping to build something truly special for the first time in generations.

The additions of Greg Monroe and Jabari Parker should translate into even match-ups among second-tier Eastern Conference teams.

From a head to head standpoint the Bucks should be able to compete with any of those teams. Last season Milwaukee swept the Miami Heat 4-0; but dropped the season series to both the Wizards and Raptors, 2-1. The additions of Greg Monroe and Jabari Parker should translate into even match-ups among second-tier Eastern Conference teams. Monroe, in particular, gives the Bucks an advantage at center over each of those teams.

Should fans expect the Bucks to make a Cinderella run to the Eastern Conference Finals? Probably not. Their mix of youth, generally poor shooting, and injury question marks will likely stymie a run that deep.

On the other side of the coin there’s NO CHANCE the Bucks miss the playoffs. There’s simply too much talent on this squad–even if the team sustains significant injuries to core players.

So then what, on this first week of September, should be a realistic goal for the 2015-16 Milwaukee Bucks season?

The answer is tri-fold: win 50 games or more, earn the Eastern Conference’s 4th seed, and advance past the first round of the playoffs.

A day will come (and it’s coming very, very soon) that the Bucks will be playing for the right to advance to the NBA finals. But for now they’re too young and too inexperienced to overcome the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference.

Baby steps.

Let’s start with sending a Bucks player to the All-Star game.

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