Apr 25, 2013; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Brandon Jennings reacts after he was called for a foul against the Miami Heat during game three of the first round of the 2013 NBA playoffs at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

The Bucks can’t mathematically win in six games. The Bucks aren’t going to win in seven games, either.

Milwaukee hosts Miami in a Game 4 matinee on Sunday, and if history tells us anything, it’s that the Bucks have literally no chance to win the series. No NBA team — let alone an eighth seed — has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a playoff series. Zero.

Yet, the Bucks still have to go through the motions and play Game 4. It’s win or stay home. If the Bucks steal Game 4, they will travel to Miami and enter Game 5 with the exact same odds of winning the series as they had before.

It’s now a matter of pride:

B. Jennings: I know my head is still high. I’m still going to finish out…I’m still going to play until the buzzer is over. #BucksPlayoffs

— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) April 27, 2013

And if “playing for pride” is a bit too cliché, “playing for contracts” might be more appropriate for this team anyway.

Playoff exposure provides soon-to-be free agents a chance to strike gold. It can create a lasting — even if completely misleading —  impression. One must look no further than former NBA center Jerome James, who entered the 2005 NBA playoffs as Seattle’s underwhelming starting center and exited as a hot commodity around the NBA. James started 80 games in the 2004-05 season for the Sonics, in which he posted a very modest statline: 16.6 mpg, 4.9 ppg, 3.0 rpg and 1.4 bpg. In the playoffs, however, he seemingly broke out. With an expanded role, James posted a 19.3 PER in 11 games during the playoffs and increased his averages to 12.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg and 1.8 bpg.

James’ 11-game sample size was more than enough to lure in the New York Knicks, who rewarded James with a 5-year, $30 million contract. The rest is history. He went on to play 90 more games in his career.

So, why is this relevant? The Bucks have seven players — and a head coach — who are about to hit free agency this summer, assuming Monta Ellis opts out of his contract and the Bucks decline Gustavo Ayon’s option. In particular, each member of Milwaukee’s marquee guard trio will likely be testing the market. Unlike James — and both Jerome and LeBron apply here — Jennings, Ellis and J.J. Redick are doing little to impress in the playoffs:

Brandon Jennings:

• 16.7 points per game
• 37.0 minutes per game
• 32.0 field goal percentage
• 20.8 three-point percentage
• 43.2 true shooting percentage
• 5.0 assists per game
• 3.0 steals per game
• 12.3 PER

Monta Ellis:

J.J. Redick:

These players may have only one more game to enhance their worth to teams around the league. Sunday would be a smart time for one or more of these players to break out of their respective slumps. A win couldn’t hurt, either.

Wade Questionable

Heat shooting guard Dwyane Wade, who is nursing a sore right knee, is questionable for Game 4. Via Charles Gardner of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra is monitoring the nagging injury on a day-by-day basis:

“He’s been dealing with this for over a month. It’s getting better, but he plays a physical game. He was on the ground four or five times last night. One of those collisions when he was fouled in the first half, he got hit on the elbow, he got hit in the face, and he got hit on the knee all on one play. He’s fighting through it. Some days are better than others, depending on the collisions he has the night before.”

“That’s why we’re treating it day-to-day. This was a bone bruise. What it needs is time and it gets better. But what it also needs is no collisions.”

Hampered by knee pain, Wade had a woeful Game 3 performance. He only converted one of his 12 field goal attempts and turned the ball over six times. However, Wade still almost managed to register a unique double-double — finishing with 11 assists and nine rebounds.

Wade missed 13 games during the regular season due to injury. If he doesn’t suit up, expect Mike Miller to slide into the starting lineup.  Miller, who has only played two minutes in the series, started each of the Heat’s last 11 games of the regular season — seven of which Wade missed with injury. Shane Battier is another option for the Heat. He started 20 games during the regular season and is averaging 25.3 minutes per game in the series.

Udoh Limited By Injury

Backup center Ekpe Udoh only played four minutes in Thursday’s game, and Bucks coach Jim Boylan later revealed that Udoh is battling an Achilles’ heel injury. That helps explain why seldom-used Samuel Dalembert, who hadn’t appeared in a game since April 3, received nine minutes of action off the bench. He appeared out of shape and was noticeably a step slow on defensive rotations. After playing four minutes in the first half, Dalembert re-entered with 4:59 remaining in the third quarter and quickly committed two fouls and couple careless turnovers. Miami extended their three-point lead to ten by the end of the frame.

Series Stats:

Game Information:

Time: 2:3o p.m. CDT
Watch: ABC
Listen: 620 AM WTMJ

Suffice it to say, the two players brought baggage along with them. And while that metaphor is worthy of an eye roll, it is an easy way to summarize the struggles Bogut and Ellis have faced since swapping franchises.

Bucks fans are used to the sight of Bogut in a suit. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-US PRESSWIRE

Bogut played in just 12 games last season. The lockout truncated the entire league’s basketball schedule, but a fractured left ankle did Bogut in for the remaining 54 games. His string of injuries made him increasingly and frustratingly confined to the bench. It made sense to sell high on him, the former No. 1 overall pick who had only been healthy enough to play one full season to that (and this) point.

It made sense, right? Supplanting a partial season of savvy defense for Ellis’ proven scoring ability (though he has never played a full 82-game season, either) was entirely justifiable to a team vying for a playoff push.

Right?

At the moment, it did. Amidst the details of a win-now strategy — one that, for what it’s worth, had the penultimate goal of obtaining a low seed in the playoffs — having broken merchandise does nothing to propel a team forward.

Enter: Ellis.

For the most part, he has produced as everyone expected. Through 13 games this season, Ellis is on the NBA leaderboard at 13th in field goal attempts, 13th in points per game, and eighth in usage percentage, consuming 28.6 percent of available possessions while on the hardwood.

“As everyone expected,” it should be noted, does not encompass efficiency. Ellis’ reputation as a chucker is still intact and that he ranks 66th in per-game efficiency according to NBA.com should surprise exactly zero people (unless the shock comes from him not being further down the list, in which case the inverse may be true). Among qualified players in John Hollinger’s PER statistics, Ellis 16.8 lands at 98th, sandwiched between Houston’s Patrick Patterson and the Mavericks’ Chris Kaman. The number looks even worse when including all players regardless of minutes played, since 18 players with small sample sizes have better ratings than the Bucks shooting guard.

Monta Ellis’ early struggles were not originally included in the Bogut deal. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-US PRESSWIRE

Ellis is a scorer and does well to put points on the board, plus when he’s willing — a big caveat — Ellis is a proficient passer and can set up teammates near the rim. But he’s also a defensive sieve, failing to keep up with even Rip Hamilton in the two games the Bucks have played against the Bulls this season. In those games, Hamilton scored a combined 52 points and put together a 45.2 effective field goal percentage. Given, 72.2 percent of Hamilton’s shots were assisted, but he should not be so wide open that the man guarding him a majority of the time — who happens to be seven years Hamilton’s junior — cannot jump the passing lane.

The defensive sagging is something Bucks brass had to take into account when they dealt Bogut and troublesome shooting guard Stephen Jackson to the Warriors in return for Ellis, forward Ekpe Udoh and since-departed center Kwame Brown. Milwaukee’s powers that be could not have accounted for Ellis’ relatively slow start on the offensive end in 2012-13, though.

A sub-19 percent three-point shooting start through the first 15 games doesn’t necessarily qualify as holding up his end of the bargain as being part of an explosive scoring back court.

It’s fair to mention that shooting triples is not Ellis’ forte, but he has put on some clinics of truly horrendous shooting this season, too. Going 6-20 in the season opener against Boston; producing a 27.8 percent shooting percentage (5-18) in the loss to Memphis; and the piece de resistance of awful, a 4-16 performance against the Heat that included hitting one of five attempted treys over the course of 39 minutes and 26 seconds.

Ellis’ showing against Miami is an anomaly, but not as much of one as might be expected. By the numbers, he had two worse shooting performances (2-14, .143 in a loss in Madison Square Garden; 2-12, .167 in a futile home effort against the Grizzlies) in the 21 games he played for the Bucks at the end of last season.

That’s not to bash Ellis, just to say that his slump of a start to ’12-’13 is a concentrated example of what he has done several times in the past. Through his first 34 games as a Buck, Ellis has also had 10 games in which he shot .500 or better from the field, four of them being in this young season. When Ellis has had those kinds of outings, the Bucks have gone 6-4.

That’s what Ellis brings to the table. Like anyone whose play veers toward risky, Ellis can win games with hero ball or position his team on the wrong side of a loss. It might work for a sixth-man like J.R. Smith in New York, but not for a starter on a team lacking an All-Star.

At the very least, Ekpe Udoh (13) fits into Skiles’ system as a help defender. Photo Credit: Sam Sharpe-USA TODAY Sports

On the court, Bogut is more of a sure thing. The Australian is 0.7 rebounds away from averaging a double-double for his career. Add to that his average of 2.3 assists and 1.3 blocks per game since 2005-2006, and any question about consistency is put to rest. Even with a bum ankle, Bogut put up average numbers in the four games he has played in a Warriors jersey.

But that means nothing if he can’t stay on the court.

Bogut recently revealed that he had microfracture surgery on the injured ankle, not the arthroscopic procedure originally touted. Golden State’s front office has given several projected dates of return for the center, and they have all passed.

As a franchise, the Warriors are trending up. This is happening without Bogut and Ellis, although the ex-Buck is a big part of future plans. On the other end of the spectrum, Ellis is slated to be an unrestricted free agent next summer and the common thought is that he will sign somewhere other than Milwaukee.

The ancillary players in the trade may be more important in this situation, if neither big “get” works out for their new-ish teams. By sending Ellis away, the Warriors cleared up questions about who was running their back court and solidified Stephen Curry’s role as primary ball-handler. The Bucks traded an asset they could not use while simultaneously shipping out Jackson, whose malcontent ways were a bad influence on Brandon Jennings, the franchise’s current face. Additionally, Udoh may be out-kicking his coverage by developing as an individual player and fitting into Scott Skiles’ defense.

Like any game, basketball is about winning and losing. If the Warriors’ gamble on a broken Bogut works out, they will win this trade in the long-term. Ellis could walk after just over 100 games, leaving the Bucks without himself or Jackson, but with Udoh. It seems like a short-term win.

Those are too many if’s, might’s and could’s to declare a winner right now, though.