If Bucks fans smile after tonight’s game against the Nuggets, it will be because of Monta Ellis. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Having clinched a playoff spot (the eighth seed, naturally), now is the time the Bucks can relax. They’re too far behind Boston to climb into the seventh spot and avoid a first round series against the Miami Heat. Add the fact that two of their primary playmakers, Larry Sanders and Brandon Jennings, are ailing and tonight’s regular season home finale against the Denver Nuggets is when Milwaukee can inflate minutes for back-ups and hypothetically be content no matter the outcome. Or at least that should be the case.

The Bucks managed to botch every contest during a four-game road trip, dropping games to Miami and Atlanta in addition to teams with less respectable records, the Orlando Magic and Charlotte Bobcats. What should have been a 50/50 split spun into four consecutive losses, leaving the Bucks hungry for one more victory before the postseason begins. Tonight offers them their best chance to snag one. It is their last game in Milwaukee and, even if it is against one of the Western Conference’s best teams, the odds of winning in Oklahoma City for the Thunder’s final home game are drastically worse than nabbing a ‘W’ over a Nuggets team featuring a less-than-100 percent Ty Lawson and missing Kenneth Faried and Danilo Gallinari.

Projected Lineups:

Nuggets: Ty Lawson, Evan Fournier, Andre Iguodala, Corey Brewer, Kosta Koufos
Bucks: Monta Ellis, J.J. Redick, Ersan Ilyasova, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, John Henson

This is not the Bucks’ last stand, but it is their best. Jennings is doubtful for Monday’s game and will probably rest his sore left Achilles. That is less of a worry than it would have been earlier in the season, before Monta Ellis, point guard, re-emerged from a post-Golden State fog over the weekend. Either has speed to match up well against Lawson, although Ellis may be the better candidate. Lawson forced Jennings into seven turnovers and held the sometimes-mercurial PG to 33 percent shooting when the two teams met on Feb. 5. It must be noted, Ellis had an awful game (6-21, 0-5 from three) that night, too. That happens against Andre Iguodala, though. It’s no secret.

The absence of Gallinari and Faried — who will likely rest until the playoffs — is fortunate for the Bucks, as Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Ersan Ilyasova both compiled five fouls. Along with John Henson (power forwards! Thanks, John Hammond!), those two will have to execute their roles perfectly: Mbah a Moute has to lock down on defense and force a draw with Iggy while Ilyasova has to be efficient from the field. Henson has been spotty throughout the season, but has the potential to be a mini-Sanders in the paint due to his length. If nothing else, tonight will be good practice in game-time situations for Henson, something that could be valuable if nagging injuries force Sanders to miss any time during the playoffs.

As favorable a match-up as the depleted Nuggets are for the Bucks, Milwaukee must play as well as possible to stop its skid. That means minimizing fast break points (easier than usual, with Lawson’s heel still on the mend) and getting solid production from players used to playing off the bench (hard, if Redick can’t fully shake the funk he’s been experiencing).

Oklahoma City will want to put on a show Wednesday to close the regular season. The Heat awaits in the playoffs and there is a chance LeBron James and Co. sweep the Bucks regardless of tonight’s outcome versus Denver. Tonight may be “do or die.” It could be win now or win in the fall. Can Ellis guide the Bucks to a victory? Let us know in the comments.

Weird tiger-striped, possibly leather shooting sleeves, Drew Gooden. Weird that you played Gooden, Jim Boylan. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The Dallas Mavericks could conceivably still crack the Western Conference’s playoff seeding, but their current concern is breaking out their razors. At 29-33, the Mavs are at least four games away from their goal of a clean shaven, .500 record and the Bucks are the next obstacle. Milwaukee, as Dallas must know, is no pushover right now, having won six of its last seven games — a stretch of games that includes wins over four potential playoff teams and one which began when the Bucks visited Dallas on Feb. 26.

These teams were both much different two weeks ago. A three-game losing streak made the Bucks’ playoff prospects shaky and J.J. Redick was only one game into his career in green. The Mavs had just missed out on adding Brandon Jennings or any point guard through trade and were only slightly farther away from de-bearding. Since then, Vince Carter has had five consecutive double-digit scoring performances (still intact) and, more often than not, the duo of Jennings and Monta Ellis has been what John Hammond envisioned at last season’s trade deadline.

Projected Lineups:

Mavericks: Mike James, O.J. Mayo, Jae Crowder, Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Kaman
Bucks: Brandon Jennings, Monta Ellis, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Ekpe Udoh, Samuel Dalembert

Just as Dallas is surviving at the hand of a shooting guard, so is Milwaukee. Ellis is averaging 26.8 points, 6.8 assists, 3.8 rebounds and 2.5 assists in the six games since the last time these teams met. He’s shooting 50.4 percent, an obviously good number that becomes even better when considering Ellis is hitting an atrocious (maybe not by his standards) 26.9 percent from three. In short, he has been efficient near the rim (and, against the Kings, from the free throw line, going 11-12), but every Buck has been afforded extra space in the interior since Redick arrived to space the floor. The former Orlando guard missed Sunday’s game against the Kings after tweaking an ankle, but is expected to return this evening.

While the three-point sharpshooter’s presence will alleviate some of the issues in the paint, it will not resolve them all. Larry Sanders (hyperextended left knee) and Ersan Ilyasova (bone bruise in left knee) may be absent again, making way for Ekpe Udoh and Samuel Dalembert each to play 20-plus minutes. Udoh is most useful when making defensive rotations, but is a non-factor on offense. Dalembert has been better more often than he has been worse in the past two months (remember his show-off games before the trade deadline?), but the pair gave up most of 60 points in the paint to the Sacramento Kings during a 115-113 victory Sunday night. That may not be the case tonight, as Dirk Nowitzki is likely to draw Udoh away from the lane, but that just means he will have to guard the shooting big man nearer the perimeter and open himself up to a set of crafty veteran tricks.

If All Else Fails…

…funnel Mike Dunleavy the ball. The Bucks are 15-3 when he scores at least 13 points, a mark he surpassed with 16 against the Kings.