Nov 12, 2012; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers forward Thaddeus Young (21) is defended by Milwaukee Bucks guard Marquis Daniels (6) during the third quarter at the Wachovia Center. The Bucks defeated the Sixers 105-96. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

The Bucks are locked in two very different playoff races and they can stick a dagger in one of them with a win in Philadelphia tonight.

On the one hand, they are chasing Boston in an effort to avoid the Heat in the first round.  Boston lost last night, and plays again tonight in Cleveland.  Milwaukee trails Boston by only 1.5 games despite losing six of their last eight contests.  Throw in the fact that Kevin Garnett is out for the next week or two, and the Celtics have even more chance of losing ground in one of the most pathetic seeding battles in NBA history.

The Bucks are also trying to seal the lottery fates of Washington, Toronto, and Philadelphia.  The Bucks have a 7.5-game lead over the 76ers, and 8.5-game leads over Toronto and Washington.  A win tonight over Philadelphia would bump the Bucks’ lead over Philly to 8.5 games and make a near-certainty of their first playoff appearance in three seasons with just 12 games left in the season.

Milwaukee has won the three games it has played against the 76ers this season, including a 94-92 victory at home on Feb. 13 in their most recent contest.

Projected Lineups

76ers: Jrue Holiday, Damien Wilkins, Evan Turner, Thaddeus Young, Spencer Hawes
Bucks: Brandon Jennings, Monta Ellis, Marquis Daniels, Ersan Ilyasova, Larry Sanders

Injuries

Luc Mbah a Moute traveled with the team to Philadelphia and is listed as questionable with a turf toe injury. For the 76ers, Andrew Bynum and noted Bucks killer Jason Richardson are both out following knee surgeries.

Some numbers

For starters, here’s one to ponder: Marquis Daniels has converted 20.0% of his field goal attempts between 16 and 24 feet.  To his credit, he’s done well to make himself a decent corner three-point shooter this season (10-of-27), but my gosh, 20% on long twos.  Twenty freaking percent!

As for the team stats, the two teams compare rather evenly.  The Bucks are better on the offensive glass and at creating free throw attempts.  Other than that, the differences are negligible.

Finally, one optimistic note (for Bucks fans) from the 76ers media guide:

Opponents have scored 20+ points off turnovers in four of the past five games and are averaging 18.5 points off turnovers over the past 12 games, up from an average of 13.7 the first 58 games of the season.

76ers head coach Doug Collins inserted guard Damien Wilkins into the starting lineup nine games ago, so they may be a correlation between his increased minutes and the extra points off turnovers for Philadelphia’s opponents.

Even more than usual, the Bucks need their guards to defend.

Dec 29, 2012; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Monta Ellis (11) (left) and Miami Heat guard Ray Allen (34) (right) reach for the ball during the game at the BMO Harris Bradley Center. The Bucks won 104-85. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Heat make a bit tonight at winning their 21st consecutive game. The Bucks want to stop them.

Miami comes into town on a 20-game winning streak, tying them with the 1970-71 Bucks for the third-longest winning streak in NBA history.  They are also the league’s defending champs, and they feature the reigning MVP. So they may be fairly good.

As Larry Sanders said recently about the Heat win streak, “They’re primed. They’re ready.”

In other words, the Bucks have a rare chance to seize the national spotlight.  The Bucks have had success against Miami recently, winning four of their last six games against the Heat.

But the conundrum for the Bucks is figuring out a way to stop LeBron James.  Luc Mbah a Moute has turf toe and is listed as questionable for the game.  Tobias Harris took a shot at guarding him early this season, but he’s been traded.  Mike Dunleavy is older, lighter, and slower than James.  He may get the assignment at the start of the game, but tasking Dunleavy with the job of guarding LeBron for 20+ minutes borders on the side of unfair.

If Luc is unable to go, then presumably a big defensive burden falls on reserves Marquis Daniels and Ekpe Udoh.

Projected Lineups

Heat: Mario Chalmers, Dwyane Wade, Lebron James, Udonis Haslem, Chris Bosh
Bucks: Brandon Jennings, Monta Ellis, Mike Dunleavy, Ersan Ilyasova, Larry Sanders

Injuries

Luc Mbah a Moute missed Milwaukee’s game Wednesday due to a turf toe injury. He is listed as questionable.

Udonis Haslem

With the players around him on the Heat, Udonis Haslem doesn’t have be much offensively other than enough of a threat to keep the defense honest.  Lately, he had done just that.

In February and March, Haslem has converted 61% of his shots from 16-23 feet.

The Heat need a physical interior presence that Haslem gives them, both on defense and on the glass.  If his offense helps keep the floor spaced in April, May, and June, then Miami may soon be hoisting another trophy.

Some numbers

It’s a tad bit surprising that Milwaukee and Miami share comparable numbers on many of the ‘Four Factors’ numbers.  But the Heat do have an enormous advantage in the most important of the factors: shotmaking.  Scott Skiles used to like to say that it’s a shotmaker’s league.

If he’s correct and the Heat do make their shots, then they will likely add another tally to their streak.  If, on the other hand, the Bucks summon a high percentage of stops tonight, then they’re going to have a fair chance at stealing the headlines.