One of the most persistent Milwaukee Bucks trade rumors of recent weeks has included talk of Houston’s Ty Lawson coming to Wisconsin. The question remains: why?
It would be fair to describe the NBA’s trade deadline as the league’s silly season. Maybe even more so than in the summer when the combination of the draft and free agency would seem like a more natural time for rumors to run wild.
There’s something about mid-season urgency that can force things to escalate to a different level, and that’s exactly why this time of year lends itself to some of the more puzzling suggested deals. With no intention of being left out, some of the recent Milwaukee Bucks trade rumors have proved no different.
One has stood astride as the most puzzling of the bunch for me throughout though, and it’s a whisper that just doesn’t really seem to go away.
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Ty Lawson has failed to truly find his form since he landed with the Houston Rockets last summer and as such, uncertainty has swirled around his future. As an underachieving team with their own occasional point guard issues, the Bucks might seem like an obvious trade partner from the outside looking in, but there’s more to consider than that.
Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders is the man who most significantly stoked the fire of Bucks/Lawson rumors, even though he tried to extinguish it almost immediately:
"A name that continues to get connected to the Bucks is Houston Rockets guard Ty Lawson, but sources close to the Lawson situation say a deal to Milwaukee is highly unlikely at this point."
Kyler had been vocal about the Rockets’ willingness to move Lawson since back in December, when he insisted that there was a chance he “could be had cheaply”. Yet without any concrete reasons why, it’s the Bucks who get tied to him.
Yahoo! Sports’ Adrian Wojnarowski added further weight to Houston’s intentions to move Lawon, reporting:
"The Rockets’ front office has been cooperating with Lawson’s representatives in exploring possible deals to bring back some measure of return on the organization’s original investment in Lawson, league sources said."
Even more recently, USA Today’s Sam Amick has indicated that Houston expects to keep Lawson, in spite of recent Bucks “chatter”.
More Rockets: I'm told they expect to keep Ty Lawson past Feb. 18 trade deadline. Recent chatter about Bucks, but they're rolling w/ him.
— Sam Amick (@sam_amick) January 22, 2016
So in spite of how often the question is being raised, all we’ve got is “chatter” and “connections” linking the 28-year-old with Milwaukee. Could that just be an effort on the Rockets behalf to pump up his trade value?
I’d say the answer is: most likely.
If there is something more concrete behind it, the real question has to be what do the Bucks and so many others apparently see as a fit between Lawson and Milwaukee?
Let’s try to get to the bottom of it.
Next: Lawson's Fit As A Buck
How Lawson Would Fit
This is a tough one to tie down. Let’s start by looking at Lawson’s skills and some of the Bucks needs. In a vacuum, Lawson would technically boost the Bucks in a variety of ways.
His career numbers have shown that he’s been an excellent playmaker, at least at times throughout his NBA playing days. Career averages of 13.5 points and 6.3 assists certainly don’t dazzle but with recent season highs coming in at 17.6 and 9.6, there can be little doubting that the ability is there.
Could the Bucks use a more dynamic and diverse scorer? Absolutely.
Would they benefit from a top class distributor at point guard? Without question.
When you consider the fact that Lawson is a competent three-point shooter, 36.6 percent for his career, it starts to seem like a potential slam dunk for Milwaukee, but there are real problems here.
Lawson would offer major drop offs in some of the areas where the Bucks are already struggling significantly, such as defense and rebounding. Going through a world of off-the-court issues, it’s not unfair to call Lawson’s attitude into question either.
Even more pressing than all of that, the Bucks would have to be concerned about the scenarios in which the former UNC Tar Heel has thrived and those in which he’s failed.
Lawson plays better when his usage is higher and much of the best basketball has come on Denver teams where there was minimal talent around him. That’s a theory supported by how much he has struggled with James Harden and Dwight Howard for company in Houston also.
To get the best out of Lawson, you need to let him take control. With Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker on the floor, that is definitely not what Milwaukee needs.
Next: Pros
Pros
The pros with Lawson are all going to come on the offensive end of the floor. With Lawson in the saddle, Milwaukee’s offense would open up significantly.
That would be in part due to his experience playing under varied offensive schemes (including George Karl‘s high pace Nuggets), but also his name value would add something to the Bucks in how opposing teams and players perceive them.
At the moment, only Middleton’s game is accomplished enough to consistently draw attention from multiple defenders, but whether it’s earned or not, Lawson has name recognition around the league and can command respect from defenders when the ball is in his hands.
Lawson would give Milwaukee a shooting backcourt, which is a strange and foreign concept right now, but with the team’s current construction that still may not be enough for the potential positives to outweigh the negatives that he could bring to the team.
Next: Cons
Cons
So much has been spoken of just how young this current Bucks group is, and if anybody is worried about how impressionable they may or may not be, then the addition of Lawson may not be for the best.
Lawson has a storied history of legal troubles, notably including multiple DUI arrests among other incidents. That leaves a decision to be made on if he could even help the players to learn in terms of basketball, would he be the guy you want to be mentoring young players?
Aside from any question marks over his attitude, it’s tough to dispute that Lawson is very much a one-dimensional player. By that I mean that defense has generally come as an afterthought to him, having never posted a single season defensive rating better than 108 according to Basketball Reference.
Michael Carter-Williams‘ defense is by no means lockdown, but to contrast the two, MCW’s career worst defensive rating came as a rookie when he matched the mark of 108 that acts as Lawson’s best.
Lawson’s addition could set the Bucks back further than they already are in a number of crucial areas.
Next: Making A Deal
The Trade
At this stage, I think we’re pretty clear that Lawson is not what the Bucks need, but if Milwaukee still wanted to make a move for him what would it take?
The reality is this may not even be a tough deal to pull off, and perhaps that explains the reasons for the rumors better than anything else.
If Houston has little faith in Lawson and wants to cut ties and move on, can there be a better return than players who can help them this season before expiring to create greater cap space this summer?
I’m not sure that there can, and if that’s the case, adding O.J. Mayo and Jerryd Bayless into the backcourt mix represents good value for Houston, without the Bucks being forced to give up anything of real value with both men coming off the books in the summer.
Next: Milwaukee Bucks Chasing Jeff Teague Again?
There really is a deal there to be done, but if I were the Bucks and I was set on trying to upgrade at point guard, I’d still focus my energy on finding a deal for Jeff Teague instead.
Time will tell if there was ever any merit to the endless mentions of Ty Lawson and the Bucks.