In light of recent Milwaukee Bucks trade rumors, if the team is looking for players back in a potential Greg Monroe trade, who could they go after?
Regular readers will already have read my thoughts on why it wouldn’t necessarily be a bad idea for the Milwaukee Bucks to have a long, hard think about trading away Greg Monroe, and I’ve also touched on what it might take for the Bucks to listen to offers.
After all of this, Monroe remains the team’s marquee free agent signing. He’s a player who can average close to a double-double every night, even though he certainly hurts his team on defense. With all of that considered, has he not been exactly as billed then?
The issue for Milwaukee likely rests more in the fact that their group as a whole hasn’t necessarily proven as capable of covering up his inefficiencies as many expected, but in spite of that, to the right team Greg Monroe could still offer a really meaningful impact with his offensive skill.
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If it’s not going to work out with Monroe, I would certainly be concerned about the risk of letting him walk away for nothing next summer, as it would be nice to have some return to show from a genuine free agency coup. At the same time though, the Bucks don’t want to tie themselves into a bad position for the future with any trade they make.
With that in mind a return comprised mostly of a mix of picks and expiring contracts seems like a safer option, but if the Bucks were to take players back, what sort of talent should they be interested in?
Specifically, I’d say any deal for Monroe involving players as the core pieces of the trade should center around Milwaukee taking on young talent on cheap contracts with further room to develop, or established role players who could slot in to help the team’s cohesion moving forward without having a crippling influence on usage or the salary bill.
Looking at three of the teams most regularly thrown into the mix for Monroe, let’s take a look at how some of those deals could potentially come about.
Next: Portland Trail Blazers
CJ McCollum and Ed Davis
The joy for any team dealing with the Trail Blazers is that there are so many options. There might not be another team who’s cap situation is quite as well managed as Portland’s is right now.
Of course, that’s not entirely by design. That will happen quite organically after a summer when four of your five starters leave for pastures new as free agents, and you also strike out on top free agent targets. Yet in spite of that, Portland still has some good young players, no bad contracts and the freedom to move as they see fit.
For the Bucks, I can’t really see a situation that I like more than this one, it keeps the Bucks flexible this summer and beyond (if they wish) while also giving them talented young players who can help in areas where the team struggles.
Ed Davis is an active and intelligent role player who can fill in at the four or five, offering a nice mix of skills on both ends. He’s an outstanding rebounder averaging 7.2 rebounds in 21 minutes per game with Portland this season and 10.8 per 36 for his career.
Per Basketball-Reference, he’s also posting a mind-blowing net rating of plus 25 this season (first for Portland in offensive rating, second in defensive rating). That would seem like some sort of freak statistic until you look back throughout his career. Davis’ teams have always been better with him on the floor, and for his career his net rating rounds out at plus 12.
If you were to move on from Monroe, a Henson and Davis combination would seem like a great answer at center.
How much selling do I have to do with C.J. McCollum? With the mass exodus in Rip City, McCollum has become the team’s second banana and he’s proven more capable than anybody could have expected. For the season he’s averaging 20.8 points per game, shooting just below 40 percent from deep.
The obvious question you’re probably asking yourself right now is why would Portland have any interest in giving up a guy with that ability for Monroe?
The answer to that is there are question marks over the long-term fit and potential ceiling of a backcourt that includes both Damian Lillard and McCollum. To truly contend Portland would likely need better defense and a more diverse threat overall. John Canzano of The Oregonian is thinking along those same lines:
"The Blazers general manager should be quietly shopping McCollum, gauging his trade value. If the return resulted in a front-line player who would start for multiple seasons and better complement Lillard, you’d have to consider making it."
This is certainly a suggestion that fans in Portland would certainly hate, as they understandably love what McCollum has brought to the court this year, but if the front office has any doubts over whether they want to eventually use their current cap space on maxing out McCollum as a second option, this is a phone call worth making for Milwaukee.
Sealing a deal realized may potentially take the Bucks forfeiting a pick which is not an idea that anybody is going to be enamored with, but adding a dynamic young scorer like McCollum gives Milwaukee’s future a different dynamic.
If the front office are really concerned about how Jabari Parker is going to develop, McCollum would present a form of offensive insurance as Milwaukee’s wings could move up a spot to make room for him in a grim, hypothetical world without Jabari.
McCollum could also potentially play some time at point guard either, although I’ll stress that would probably not be the best use of him. As a Sixth Man he could transform Milwaukee’s bench next season, if they chose to go that way, and in his case the fact that there’s no long-term commitment could prove to be a real positive.
If the Bucks want to re-sign him next summer, they can do so with the money that may have become Greg Monroe’s otherwise. If it doesn’t quite work out, or they feel more comfortable saving cap space for their current young core or future additions, they could simply let him walk either.
In a deal such as this one, Portland could get Monroe, the man they really wanted last summer and still have $13 million in cap space as it stands. To find an ideal scenario for both sides it might take a few tweaks here and there, but exploring this option could potentially help both front offices to move a step closer to realizing their visions for their teams.
Next: Boston Celtics
Amir Johnson or Jae Crowder or Avery Bradley
If Portland’s cap leaves a whole plethora of options for making a deal with them, the manner in which the Celtics have built a roster that is stacked with high quality role players and complementary pieces will have it’s own appeal for trade shoppers too.
It’s no secret that the Celtics are eager to start making a splash. Danny Ainge has been waiting to pull the trigger on a trade for a high profile established star or an appealing free agent for a long time.
Greg Monroe may not quite fit in as the top tier guy that they’re hoping to bring in, but he could be the piece of real talent that makes it easier for them to hook in the type of big fish that they’re ultimately after.
The Celtics have no end of draft picks they could offer if they wanted to pick up a player like Monroe without giving up any real players, and as I’ve previously discussed, offloading David Lee’s expiring with a couple of solid picks would certainly seem like an option that could be worth both Boston and Milwaukee’s while.
The Celtics have enough good young players that, if traded, could help another team to improve without necessarily debilitating Boston’s present and future too though.
Ainge likely wouldn’t be willing to give up multiple players of that ilk for a guy like Monroe (particularly with his current contract) but there are certainly deals worth Milwaukee’s while involving any one of them.
Amir Johnson would give the Bucks a strong interior presence on defense with enough shooting touch to also be able to stretch the floor out a little bit. In place of Monroe, at least as a type, that could be exactly the type of big man the Bucks are after.
At 28 years old, Johnson is a veteran presence also, without being too old to play a role with the team moving forward. His $12 million a year salary isn’t exactly bargain cheap, but expiring in a couple of years it certainly wouldn’t be bad if packaged with a nice pick.
Avery Bradley would be another player who could significantly bolster the shape of the Bucks backcourt. Bradley is one of the best on ball defenders in the entire NBA, while he also averages 36 percent on his shots from deep.
At only 25, Bradley is young enough to fit in with the “Own The Future” movement for years to come, and with two years remaining after this season on a contract that will see him earn $8.2 million in 2017 and $8.8 million in 2018, he’s a bargain that could certainly play a part in Milwaukee for years to come.
Then there’s Jae Crowder. With Giannis Antetokounmpo in place, chances are that Crowder wouldn’t get the same level of opportunities afforded to him with the Bucks as he has in Boston, but his contract means that shouldn’t even detract from going after him.
Crowder is one of the better three-and-D role players in the league and he’s tied in to a contract that will see him earn between $6.5-$8 million until 2020. That’s outstanding value for a player who at 25 years old could be a core bench piece through the team’s development and hopefully later into a time of contention.
With the combination of expirings that both Milwaukee and Boston have, there are endless possibilities for how these deals could play out. If the front office feel with conviction that Monroe isn’t going to work out for Milwaukee, Boston certainly could help them to make a deal.
Next: Charlotte Hornets
Frank Kaminsky
Kaminsky is certainly the least glamorous of returns here, and obviously a deal for Monroe would need to see the Bucks receive more in return.
I’ll be honest, as someone who is not an avid college basketball watcher, I was not very optimistic about the chances of Frank the Tank being anything other than a bust in the NBA.
Sure, stretch shooting big men are more valuable than ever, but the signs weren’t exactly trending upwards for a late blooming, four year college guy who had never been an elite rebounder, and it seemed like could have challenges defensively against the pros.
To my surprise, Kaminsky has been pleasantly effective in the NBA. He can make his shot from the NBA three-point line and has shown no fear in taking them either. He’s certainly not a lockdown defender, or even plus on that side of the ball, but he doesn’t really hurt you that much.
For Charlotte, a move to bring in Monroe makes perfect sense. Al Jefferson and Nicolas Batum are both unrestricted free agents this summer, so they likely wouldn’t be opposed to having a bit more security heading into the summer.
Monroe could offer them a skill set which isn’t dramatically different to Jefferson’s, yet as a considerably younger and healthier option, he’d be one who they’re more likely going to be prepared to invest in.
On Milwaukee’s side, to make a deal work salary wise, there’s a strong chance that they may have to take Jefferson back in a deal, but that would be nothing more than an expiring contract of a player who they would allow to walk away in the summer.
Batum could come back either, but Charlotte may be more inclined to try their hand at re-signing him themselves.
Kaminsky would be a nice, young role player for the Bucks to add, and he would be undoubtedly popular among the fans due to his Wisconsin Badger ties to the state.
Alongside Kaminsky, the Bucks could look to take a punt on a young player like P.J. Hairston who hasn’t worked out at all for the Hornets, but may still have some salvageable potential as a shooting wing, or Aaron Harrison, the former Kentucky Wildcat who has had minimal opportunities as a pro to date.
In all likelihood, a deal like this would require the addition of a pick for the Bucks. It’s not a major haul in return either way, and certainly not as appealing as the others above but if the Bucks are looking to bring back players in exchange for Monroe without really impacting their future outlook and core of young talent, they could certainly do worse than adding another young role player in exchange for a deal that didn’t pan out as they had hoped.
In terms of a trade, this might be the definition of selling low, but if you’re not confident in Monroe working out long term, there’s no way to sell lower than having him take up cap space for two seasons before ultimately leaving for nothing.
Next: Overall Picture
If Greg Monroe does end up being traded by the Milwaukee Bucks, I’m still of the belief that it will be as part of a deal that is more focused on draft picks than players.
The team still rightfully like a lot of what they have assembled to date, and one way or another are going to be wary of protecting that above all else.
It’s vital that the Bucks don’t get caught up in a deal that hurriedly leaves them tied to another big money player in the long term, and the chances of that scenario playing out would seem incredibly slim.
Padding out the roster with more and more young talent doesn’t seem like something that’s ever not advisable though, so if the Bucks feel they can move Monroe for further future gains, a trade is a no-brainer. If it’s not a move that can improve them without rocking the apple cart, well then they’re probably better sticking as they are.
Maybe the Bucks and Monroe could figure it out next year, and if not, the worst that happens is they end up with cap space again soon.
In the meantime, let’s hope the front office shows a nerve to see what’s out there. Monroe’s trade value is not necessarily being advertised at it’s highest right now, but Milwaukee can’t take that perception as gospel. Monroe has been exactly what most expected him to be.
Next: Giannis Antetokounmpo Needs To Keep Getting To The Line
Make phone calls, chase young talent, and if the answer is no, let’s not panic.
I’m of the opinion that Greg Monroe is a very good offensive player, but isn’t going to work out for the Bucks in their current construction. If you still hold out hope otherwise, there’s a wait and see game still to be played.