As we continue to countdown to the NBA Draft, we put together the first edition of our new staff roundtable series to discuss the decisions facing the Milwaukee Bucks.
With the 2016 NBA Draft now just a matter of hours away, it’s time to lock in and try to figure what the Milwaukee Bucks are going to do. Maybe, even more pressing is the debate over what they should do.
And what better way is there to do just that, than to gather a few of our staff writers together to talk out all of the key points involved?
So, that’s exactly what we did. I was joined by site editor-in-chief Adam McGee and long time staff writers Jordan Treske and John Heffernon, for the first in what will hopefully be a regular series of Bucks roundtable discussions.
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Highlighting four of the key issues facing the Bucks in our questions, we look to tackle some of those talking points, and establish some clarity on the options Milwaukee may choose to take.
What would we do if we were in John Hammond’s shoes this evening? Should the Bucks be considering best player available or fit? Which prospects have already captured our hearts? And who should the Bucks look out for in round two?
Read on to hear all of our answers!
Next: What Should John Hammond Do?
You’re in John Hammond’s shoes, it’s Draft Night and the Bucks have just been put on the clock. What do you do and why?
Adam McGee (@AdamMcGee11): It’s going to sound like a horrible cliché, but like every other team, the Bucks have to go with what, to the best of their judgement and research, seems best.
If it was me in that position I would certainly enter into discussions with teams like Phoenix, Boston and Denver to see if there was a possibility of trading down for two first rounders. The Bucks aren’t keen to bring three rookies in for next season, but bundling the two seconds with 10 could lead to two chances to find a diamond in the rough in the middle of the first.
Deals of that nature are generally tricky to pull off though, so the most likely option is making the pick.
In that case, I go with Wade Baldwin if available. We’ve all done so much talking about the right kind of point guard to slot into a lineup where Giannis handles the ball, and here we are looking at an ultra long guard who can shoot and defend. If they pass him up, I’m not sure when the next best chance to get a guy like that comes around.
John Heffernon (@Silky__Johnson_): I like that thought on turning our three draft picks into two 1st rounders. I would be all for that, especially because I am of the belief the players we could get at 11 through 16 are pretty similar to the player we could get at 10. It is just so hard to predict what options there are out there, however.
Because of that I will take the easy way out on this question and say I would just select someone with the 10th pick.
The person I would take (if he was available, of course) would be Henry Ellenson. I think the Bucks (and any team for that matter) could use a player like Ellenson to their advantage in the modern NBA. He definitely has the look and build of a stretch four but I think Ellenson would be a great fit for the Bucks at the center position (especially in smaller lineups, which for the Bucks are still pretty big because of a 7’0″ PG). His range would help stretch the floor and open up space for both Giannis and Jabari to operate. Basically most of the things that made Greg Monroe such a bad fit for the Bucks on offense are reasons why Ellenson is a pretty good fit.
Defensively, Ellenson leaves a lot to be desired. The combo of Jabari and Henry in the front court would be below average (at best). But I think he is worth the risk. He is still young and pretty athletic for his size. Maybe he can turn into an above average defender with hard work and good coaching.
Jordan Treske (@JordanTreske): I think Adam put it best that it would be in the team’s best interest to see what’s out there, to see what players teams are targeting in the draft, etc. That doesn’t mean you have to move your pick, but in the words of the great John Hammond, you have to do your due diligence.
In terms of picking someone at 10, I’d be fine with many of the players in that range. I certainly prefer some more than others like a Deyonta Davis, Wade Baldwin or Jakob Poeltl. I think all three would be great fits for the Bucks at their respective positions and we certainly solve a lot of problems for them as well.
To me, it’s just all a matter of who’s available by the time the Bucks are on the clock but either of those players would leave me satisfied.
Tim Wray (@TRW24): I agree with Adam too, I think the best possible trade scenario the Bucks could hope for would be to package all of their picks together and send them to either Denver for the 15th and 19th picks or to Boston for the 16th and 23rd picks. You could probably include Atlanta in that mix too, who acquired the 12th pick in the Jeff Teague-George Hill trade and also have their own 21st pick, both of which are reportedly available. With these options in mind, sending picks to Phoenix for the 13th and 28th selections seems like the most realistic outcome.
However, as Adam said, these types of deals are extremely difficult to pull off and that is compounded by the fact that the Bucks would be trying to sell more draft picks to most of the teams who already have too many. That being said, running with this scenario, this type of trade is seriously worth pursuing because the Bucks get another first rounder where they probably don’t want two second rounders and as John noted, there isn’t a massive gap in the skill level, talent or ceiling of someone the Bucks could take at 10 as opposed to most of the mid-first round.
If Milwaukee was able to pull off this sort of trade, then I’d probably lean towards drafting a versatile guard like Denzel Valentine or Wade Baldwin in the 12-16 range, especially considering that they’re probably the two best players in terms of fit for the Bucks in this draft. Obviously, given that they may not be available, I’d also be keeping an eye on Timothe Luwawu and Henry Ellenson here. Acquiring a pick in the mid-late first round would also open up the opportunity to take a gamble on developing Thon Maker, which is extremely enticing given his outlandish athleticism at 7’1″ and seemingly unlimited potential.
In all likelihood, the Bucks are going to play it safe and keep their pick, which isn’t a bad outcome at all. Whilst I have said that I like versatile guards like Denzel Valentine and Wade Baldwin, I’d probably take Jakob Poeltl ahead of them if he’s available, especially if Milwaukee is serious about trading Greg Monroe. Poeltl has a solid all-around game whilst giving the Bucks the defensive presence that was severely lacking for the most part last season.
AM: I’m really starting to feel like it’s going to be Deyonta Davis. I’m trying really hard to believe that’s the right pick too, but as of yet I’m just not seeing what everyone else seems to see in him. He’s super laid back to the point many scouts have described him as being lethargic during games, Tom Izzo has made statements about him “learning to work harder”, and then even if his potential ceiling is as high as many believe, how do we know he’ll get there considering personality type?
I know it’s a concern for many who’ve been following the draft closely, but that’s what I like about Wade Baldwin. He’s incredibly driven, maybe too much. He’s going to get on guys, he’s going to be aggressive, he’s a leader. That sort of drilled, competitive desire is engrained in him. His parents are an FBI agent and a DEA agent! Davis’ personality might be a more natural fit with what the Bucks currently have, but I feel like it’s time to throw some different types of voices into the mix with this team.
JH: The Izzo quotes are the first part of a longish list of things that scare me about Deyonta Davis. I realize every player has their flaws but Davis’ flaws negate his potential. He is not the hardest worker so how can he live up to his potential if he is not going to develop as a player.
I certainly wasn’t on the Baldwin train a month ago but I have been convinced he would be a great pick by many people’s points of view. He has a lot of the attributes and skills the Bucks need. I would have no problem with a Baldwin selection.
I really like Denzel Valentine. The only thing about him that concerns me is his defense. But as I showed in my own personal pick at 10 with Henry Ellenson, for reasons I cannot explain at all, I don’t care too much about defense in this draft. Valentine, like Baldwin, checks a lot of the boxes for the Bucks. At the same time he is super versatile on offense which I like a lot.
Jakob Poeltl is the player I am having the hardest time with. Like two weeks ago (and maybe this is still accurate today) more draft experts had mocked Poeltl to the Bucks at 10 than any other player. He can help this team with or without Monroe. Something in my gut tells me Poeltl wouldn’t be the right pick but I don’t have evidence from his game or his behavior to give me a cause for concern.
JT: We may have our preferences, but can we all agree that we want no part of Dejounte Murray, especially at 10?
It isn’t necessarily about who he is as a player, but if he were to go the Bucks at 10, it would leave me very concerned that they haven’t learned from their mistakes yet.
JH: I don’t like Dejounte Murray at 10. I think he is very worthy of a second round pick. I don’t see why anyone would draft him before pick 25. If the Bucks need to take a guard then I would so much rather see them spend the 10th pick on Wade Baldwin, Denzel Valentine, or Malik Beasley. Shoot, I would rather the Bucks take Tyler Ulis at 10 than Dejounte Murray! I think Ulis is a much better fit for the Bucks and I like the way he plays ball. Ulis is only going in the second round in mocks though and I don’t understand why it isn’t the same for Murray.
If I had to rank all the guards the Bucks could select at 10 in order of how much I want the Bucks to select them it would be:
1) Denzel Valentine
2) Malik Beasley
3) Timothe Luwawu
4) Wade Baldwin
5) Tyler Ulis
6) Demetrius Jackson
7) Dejounte Murray
I would be happy with any of my top four guards going at 10. Anyone else I would consider to be a major reach (and I think most people would consider Beasley a major reach).
AM: I like most of the guys on that list, although I definitely wouldn’t order them like that! Saying that, I’m also very opposed to the idea of Murray. He’s like hitting the reset on MCW in pursuit of an even rawer version. None of us need to go through that.
Next: Fit or Best Player Available?
Assuming the Bucks keep the #10 pick, are you more concerned with taking the best player available or their potential fit?
AM: The painfully optimistic, soon to be disappointed voice inside of me wants to answer this by saying a combination of both would be great. Unfortunately, we don’t live in such an idyllic world.
I know drafting by fit is a widely unpopular philosophy, but just as there’s a time and place for a BPA strategy, there’s a point in time when you have to consider fit too.
The Bucks are in this great place where we’re lucky enough to say that they have these core pieces already in place. They have their best guys, and at 10 there’s a low likelihood of them finding someone better. When you’re searching for players who are going to fill a complementary role, you’ve got to consider what you’ve already got in place.
If the Bucks draft a power forward who turns out to be really good and shares minutes with Jabari, that’s great. The problem is that we’d still be looking for a point guard, a center and some shooters. With the cap rising, there has never been a wiser time than the present to use rookie scale contracts to fill your biggest roster needs.
JH: I think the Bucks should take the best player available at 10, whoever they think that is. I don’t care if it’s a player who is ready to play in the NBA tomorrow or a player who needs a few years to develop up to his potential. Fit is important but the Bucks don’t have much set in stone years down the road beyond the “big three”. I think because of this they can take a player at any position without too much concern for ruining what they already have.
This is an advantageous position for the BPA strategy. Even if the player at 10 duplicates a position they already have that player can become a solid 6th man option off of the bench. Two of the Bucks core pieces of Middleton and Antetokounmpo can play multiple positions on offense and defense and I think that allows the team to not have to pigeon-hole themselves into taking a certain position.
In short, I think when you have a team that is on the verge of/is a contender you go for fit. When you have a team that is still a while away from contending you go for the best player available. You cannot always accurately predict what the team is going to look like when the team is be ready to contend.
JT: I definitely side with Adam on this and I think you could argue that the Bucks could do both with whoever they select at 10.
The state of the Bucks roster, outside of the core three, is still in flux. The trade rumors regarding Greg Monroe have quickly reappeared and I’m sure the same will go for Michael Carter-Williams once free agency begins (or even sooner). Plus, the bench is in need of bolstering and who knows who the Bucks will bring back from the group of players who will enter free agency (outside of Steve Novak probably).
So, to me, I don’t see how the Bucks couldn’t kill two birds with one stone. Of course, I can see them doing something totally unexpected and frustrating, but that’s what years of being a Bucks fan will do to you I guess.
TW: I think how a player fits with a team is becoming an increasingly important consideration for front offices around the league and has certainly become a more prevalent point of discussion in light of the success teams like Golden State and San Antonio have had in the past couple of years.
However, as John said, drafting for fit largely depends on where the team sits and is certainly a more applicable strategy for contenders rather than rebuilding lottery teams. In this sense, especially in the first round of the draft, I don’t believe the Bucks should be reaching too far down the draft board for a better fit as opposed to selecting the best player available, especially as Jordan said, when the majority of the roster is consistently in flux.
Although the Bucks core is locked in, with the team’s push towards versatility and position-less basketball, I think Milwaukee has the luxury of being able to select the best player available. That being said, a player’s potential fit with the team cannot be totally ignored and needs to factor into the decision.
As Adam alluded to, I probably wouldn’t be in favor of drafting a player who plays the same position as one of the core three, especially when the major needs are at point guard, center and to find shooters. Luckily with the 10th pick, I think it’s likely that the Bucks will be presented a couple of options like Jakob Poeltl, Denzel Valentine and Wade Baldwin who largely fulfill both criteria.
AM: In terms of the fluid nature of the roster and the potential for change, does a lot of that not come down to not having the right role players though? The core three guys aren’t going anywhere any time soon (or so we’ve been told), and hitting the jackpot and adding the role players that the team needs around them would quickly negate any sense of the roster being in flux.
With either strategy, there’s always a chance that you pick a bust, so that can’t be safeguarded against, but at the point the Bucks are at I feel that taking the gamble on filling one or more of their needs on draft night is worthwhile. It could save a lot of dollars for free agency.
JH: I think Jordan put it nicely in describing the ever-changing nature of the roster. That statement isn’t disputed by those of us in the fit side or the BPA side of this argument. Yet, our conclusions about what this statement by Jordan means to draft strategy are totally different.
As a proponent for best player available, I would say look at players in the NBA like Andre Iguodala, Jamal Crawford, Dennis Schröder, Shaun Livingston, Enes Kanter, and Bismack Biyombo. All of these guys played on good or very good teams this year and they all, primarily, came off of the bench.
Good teams in the NBA need good bench players. Even at positions where the team is stacked (i.e. the Warriors where Steph Curry backed up by Livingston or the Clippers where Chris Paul is backed up by Crawford).
I’d say the worst position to draft for regarding the Bucks is small or power forward because each of our core players can play that position. The Bucks do not need a forward for the starting lineup, certainly. But drafting a guy who would exclusively be an NBA 3 or 4 wouldn’t hurt this Bucks team, if that player is the best available.
Players like that who are possible Bucks targets are Henry Ellenson, Jaylen Brown (though he is likely to be gone by the time the 10th pick arrives), and Marquese Chriss (though he is also likely to be gone by the time the 10th pick arrives). All of those could be great sixth man options for the Bucks if shown they need to exclusively play the 3 or the 4. I think having good bench players that can grow with the team can help the Bucks.
We have the core of our starting lineup in place. Imagine a bench that follows that lineup which includes Henry Ellenson and Rashad Vaughn. That could be the makings of a strong offensive bench (if the players develop as we expect). I think that could help the team just as much as another good starter who fits nicely into the lineup.
Next: Favorite Prospects
Regardless of whether they fit for the Bucks or not, who is your favorite prospect in this class?
AM: Hands down, my favorite prospect is Louisville’s sophomore center Chinanu Onuaku. It’s not even close, to be honest.
When you first see photos of him, or look at his stats, or start to watch tape on his game, your brain quickly decides what he’s going to be. The fun part is that he’s so much more than your first impression could possibly imagine.
He looks like no more than a stocky, undersized, traditional center, but he breaks out these incredible passes (behind the back being one of his specialities), he has this surprising athleticism and mobility, and he’s got this non-stop desire to cover guys that leads him all across the floor on defense without being found out very often.
That’s not to mention the underhand free throws! He’s likely going to go in the early second round, but I see a long, long career ahead for him as a backup big or spot starter in the NBA.
JH: Malik Beasley. I actually really hope the Bucks can package their two second round picks to move back into the late first round to grab this guy.
Beasley is a super athletic player (who is scary in transition), efficient offensively, a really good shooter (especially from three), a good rebounding guard, and a good overall teammate. I spend too much time day-dreaming about Beasley, Parker, Antetokounmpo fast breaks…
JT: Hmm, that’s a tough one honestly.
While this draft class is far from a perfect one from a quality standpoint, I think there are plenty of players who will have a nice future in the NBA. But in terms of favorite prospects, I think I’d lean towards Gary Payton II (or Two, if that suits you).
He certainly carries some glaring flaws (like PG skills and perimeter shooting), but I just think he’ll be able to carve out a role in the league, likely as a defensive stopper. That’s not even mentioning his incredible athleticism, which you can see on any highlight play of his.
Yes, he may just be a second round pick, but you could do a lot worse at that half of the draft. If you want a player who can give you solid minutes as a backup point guardwith the hopes he can play off the ball, Payton II’s your guy.
TW: As a proud Australian, it’s Ben Simmons.
About five or six years ago, a former coach of mine would rave on about how good this young kid from Melbourne was after watching him at a junior carnival. “Future number one overall pick” and “he’ll be Australia’s greatest ever basketball player” he’d say every time we talked about him and watched his footage. It’s safe to say that Simmons has been on the Australian basketball radar for a very long time, so it’s amazing that he’s been as good as advertised to this point and is finally going to the NBA, likely as the number one pick. Even more incredible is that he could become the third Australian-born player to be taken first overall in the past 11 years (Andrew Bogut, Kyrie Irving). If he does, my coach will be the first to say “I called it.”
As for his game, I’m not going to say that he’s going to be a ‘superstar’, but at the same time I’m not ruling it out either. His one year at LSU wasn’t ideal, but he did showcase why he’s such a unique talent with almost unlimited potential as an extremely versatile point forward who plays the game like very few others have. Shooting is the glaring weakness that everyone points to, but by no means do I think he will be an awful shooter in the NBA. I think many confuse his pass first orientation and decision not to shoot the ball with the notion that he can’t shoot at all. His work ethic and free throw numbers show enough promise that once he’s in an NBA environment, I believe he’ll be able to develop a decent jump shot.
I also have to mention Thon Maker. For a long time his YouTube mix tapes painted him as the “next Kevin Durant” with unbelievable length, athleticism and a seemingly amazing shooting touch for a guy that’s 7’1″. After five minutes of watching him play, it’s evident that’s not the kind of player he is, or will become, yet he still has amazing potential as a high energy big who can protect the rim. It was an interesting decision to see that he would skip college and enter the NBA draft, so it’s going to take a lot of patient development for the team that ends up drafting him, especially on the physical side of things, but he could definitely turn out to be a home run.
AM: Yeah, I get the hype and the appeal for Maker, but he’s going to need to spend probably an entire season in the D-League. I’m not sure how people can look at him and see anything other than that. Having skipped college, the team he lands with will almost have to artificially give him that extra year to develop.
That’s what I find so confusing about how passionate many Bucks fans are about him. Without a D-League team I’d be reluctant to take him at all. Even if the potential is what everyone hopes it is, if you don’t have the right infrastructure in place to develop him, he may never reach those heights anyway.
TW: That’s a fair call.
It’s going to be extremely interesting to see where he ends up. Even in a draft where there isn’t a lot of consensus beyond the middle of the first round, he definitely has the largest range in terms of draft position. I think he’ll be taken in the late first round, but It’s feasible that we could see him taken anywhere from the late teens to the early forties.
Next: Any Second Round Intrigue?
Does anybody in the second round interest you at #36 or #38?
AM: Unsurprisingly from my earlier answer, Onuaku would be my first choice here. I’m over here screaming his name from the rooftops. Aside from Nanu, there are a number of other guys I like though.
Virginia’s Malcolm Brogdon is a senior two guard who can shoot the ball and is a lockdown defender. He’d likely find a role in the rotation pretty quickly considering Milwaukee’s weaknesses. Patrick McCaw is another interesting combo guard, and a former teammate of Rashad Vaughn’s at UNLV.
Another guy who I’m a really big fan of is Guerschon Yabusele. He’s a French power forward who was in for a workout last week, and the only way I’ve been able to describe him is as a mixture of the old and the new styles at that position. He’s undersized, but incredibly strong and well-built, designed to thrive in contact inside, but he can also step out and shoot over 40 percent from deep. If Yabusele became a Buck, there’s a strong possibility that not even arena security would remember who Johnny O’Bryant was within a few months.
JH: I agree with Adam on Onuaku and Brogdon. I like both of those guys a lot.
I also really like Tyler Ulis and Kay Felder.
Tyler Ulis probably should go in the first round but if he doesn’t I really hope the Bucks snatch him up. He can score in a variety of ways, can shoot it from anywhere, is a really good passer, and a great ball handler. Ulis is also a pesky defender. His only issue is his height, he is only 5’10”. But if height was everything Isaiah Thomas and Nate Robinson wouldn’t have had careers in the NBA. I think Ulis is on par skills-wise with IT. Not as good at creating shots but could have the same overall impact on games.
Kay Felder is similar to Ulis. He is shorter though at 5’9″. But he can score from anywhere and was the best passer in college last year. This guy actually looks like Isaiah Thomas with the way he plays the game at his size (with a little better passing). I wouldn’t be upset if Milwaukee took a chance on him.
JT: I, too, am a fan of all the players mentioned by both John and Adam (this is where I must say #Onuwaukee).
As far as players that haven’t been mentioned yet, I have to advocate for Paul Zipser. I’d be surprised if he’s available at either 36 or 38, but in the case that he’s still on the board by the time the Bucks are on the clock, it would be a no-brainer decision for me personally. The potential that he has as a backup 3-and-D wing/ stretch four who can really defend is what makes him so appealing to me and it would really solve some of the problems the Bucks have with their forward depth.
Another player that intrigues me is Georgios Papagiannis. He’s still very young (he’s about to turn 19 years old), but the fact that he’s likely a draft-and-stash candidate could be a good option for the Bucks and if they really want to hone in on developing him closely, he would be a good player to have once they have a D-League team.
TW: #Onuwaukee it is!
I really like Malcolm Brogdon too. I wouldn’t hesitate to take him with either the 36th or the 38th pick because he’s ready to contribute to the Bucks immediately. As Adam pointed out, he fills two of Milwaukee’s main weaknesses and I’m really impressed with his defensively ability which could make him a very valuable piece in the Bucks rotation.
Caris LeVert, Ben Bentil and Isaiah Whitehead are some other names that come to mind. Thon Maker is mocked to the Bucks in the second round by DraftExpress, but I think a playoff team in the mid-late first round will take a chance on him.
If Diamond Stone slides into the second round and is available at 36, do the Bucks take him?
AM: They might because he’s a talented player for that spot in the order, but they shouldn’t. The romanticism of a hometown prospect is nice, but Stone has limited range and isn’t a good defender. I’m not sure where the spot for him on the roster would be.
If they take a big man at 10, then it’ll definitely be out of the question. Even if they go with a guard, I just don’t think he’s the type of player they’re looking to add this summer.
TW: That’s basically what I was thinking. Although I largely supported drafting the best player available (fit still needs to be considered, you just shouldn’t reach too far down the draft board for that player), I think the second round is where drafting for fit becomes the priority over selecting the best player available. With guys like Brogdon and Onuaku available, it’s a no brainier for me.
JH: Stone, if he lives up to his max potential, is a guy who scores exactly like Monroe but probably a few less PTS per game and is a weak rebounder. So basically he would be a Monroe clone, who is worse than Monroe no matter how he develops. I don’t think the Bucks are looking for that kind of player.
JT: Yeah, John put it best. Even if Stone eventually reaches his ceiling, he leaves a lot to be desired in areas where the Bucks need help with.
I wish all the best for him, but I think there are players that fall in that range who could be better fits for the Bucks.
Next: NBA Mock Draft 4.0: Countdown To Draft Night
That’s it for this week’s roundtable. Watch out for more coming soon to reflect on the draft and look ahead to free agency.