On top of looking to bring in new faces, the Milwaukee Bucks have to decide if they wish to bring back some of last year’s roster when free agency opens.
With free agency set to begin in earnest on July 1, teams and front offices around the league are tasked with making difficult personnel decisions about who will play for their team next year.
Many teams begin this process by taking a look at their own talent, including pending free agents that they may look to bring back, and the Bucks are no different.
Much of the decision making process will hinge around what the market bears in terms of outside pieces that could be brought in, but the Bucks certainly need to understand what they are working with prior to the start of the free agent process.
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None of the cherished young core of Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Jabari Parker are set on expiring contracts, but role players and secondary options are necessary to any team’s success.
With the salary cap set to jump up next season, contracts will be harder to contextualize, and more teams will be provided with the funds to take a run at any assets they covet, including their own.
For the Bucks, these assets include O.J. Mayo, Greivis Vasquez, Jerryd Bayless, Miles Plumlee, and Steve Novak, all in their own right with something to bring to the proverbial table.
With five players set to hit the open market, I take a closer look at what each player brings to the table, where they fit with the Bucks, and whether or not they should be re-signed.
Next: O.J. Mayo
O.J. Mayo
2015-16 Key Stats: 7.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.9 apg
2015-16 Cap Hit: $8 million
After signing with the Bucks in the summer of 2013, O.J. Mayo has seen his role with the team change dramatically, from being a major piece of a terrible 2013-2014 squad that went 15-67, to last season being tasked with mentoring and leading young guns such as Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker.
As one of the oldest players on the team at just 28 years old, part of these new-found leadership duties involved giving up possessions and shots to those younger core players, as evidenced in his numbers.
Mayo did deal with injury problems throughout the year, as hamstring issues sidelined him for 41 games, and also dealt with frequent lineup changes; he saw himself coming off the bench as a shooting guard and starting in the backcourt at both guard positions. In playing more of a complementary role, O.J.’s usage dropped from 23.6 percent in 2014-2015 to just 17 percent last season, by far his career low.
Whether it was the injury troubles or the change in roles, Mayo struggled on the offensive end last season. While obviously his scoring output was down, O.J. also posted a below-average PER of 7.7, a steep downturn from his previous career low of 12.6. For a shooter who took over half of his field goal attempts from behind the arc, a 32 percent three-point percentage simply won’t cut it either.
Mayo’s overall FG percent of just over 37 percent is also not worthy of either the money nor the role given to him. On the defensive end, Mayo performed slightly better, using his veteran knowledge and IQ to post a positive Defensive Win Shares (DWS) rating, as well as finishing third on the team in terms of steal rate.
It’s unclear what Mayo’s role with the team will be next season, but it seems safe to assume that the Bucks will not need as much of the Juice Man on the court as they did in previous years.
Young shooting guards Rashad Vaughn and Malcolm Brogdon need minutes to continue their development, and the biggest impact Mayo will have going forward should he re-sign would be in mentoring those two as well as the rest of the core.
With the salary cap going up, some contending team may want to bring in O.J. to provide shooting depth and leadership, believing that last season was not indicative of O.J.’s talent level and ability going forward.
If O.J. wants to return to the Bucks, it would have to be on a substantial pay cut, one that I don’t think Mayo would realistically be interested in.
Final Verdict: Let Go
Next: Greivis Vasquez
Greivis Vasquez
2015-16 Key Stats: 5.5 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 4.0 apg
2015-16 Cap Hit: $6.6 million
During the 2015 NBA draft, the Bucks pulled the trigger on a deal that seemed to solidify their status as a contender, dealing their Clippers lottery-protected 2017 1st round pick and the number 46 pick in the 2015 draft for Raptors reserve point guard Greivis Vasquez.
Although the general consensus around the league was that the Bucks overpaid for the one season left on Vasquez’s contract, on paper, the move filled three of the Bucks most glaring roster holes – veteran presence, playoff experience, and three-point shooting.
Coming off of an encouraging season capped off by a comeback playoff run at the Chicago Bulls and later the signing of marquee free agent Greg Monroe, things were looking up for the Bucks, with sights set on another playoff berth. In practice (and games) however, the addition of Vasquez flopped horribly.
Just one season removed from playing all 82 games for the Raptors, Vasquez suffered an ankle injury 16 games into his season in Milwaukee, sidelining him until April, at which point his contributions were effectively rendered meaningless. Even when healthy, Vasquez was not effective though, posting his lowest per game scoring average since his rookie campaign, as well as his lowest career PER at just 7.4.
Playing for a team with a shortage of three-point shooters such as the Bucks did led to a change in General Greivis’ shot selection; over half (53 percent) of his FGA were from three-point range, up from his previous career high rate of 48 percent.
However, his 38 percent three-point stroke from the year before did not translate across the Canadian border, as he shot only 25 percent from behind the arc with the Bucks. This could possibly be explained with the change in Vasquez’s shot type.
With the Raptors, over 80 percent of his treys came from an assist, often from more ball-dominant backcourt mates Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, while only 66 percent of his three-pointers in a Bucks uniform were assisted. Vasquez’s inefficiency continued through all aspects of his shooting, as his 32.6 percent overall field goal mark ranked 450th out of all 476 players who suited up last season.
On the other side of the trade, former UCLA shooting guard Norman Powell, taken by the Raptors with the second round pick ceded by Milwaukee broke out late in the season, starting 24 games, including three in the playoffs. Powell’s numbers are especially disconcerting for Bucks fans when he is compared to struggling 2015 first-round pick Rashad Vaughn, as Powell bests the younger UNLV product in virtually every category.
| Player | G | GS | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | 2P | 2PA | 2P% | FT | FTA | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS | ORtg | DRtg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell | 49 | 24 | 725 | 6.9 | 16.3 | .424 | 2.6 | 6.3 | .404 | 4.3 | 10.0 | .436 | 3.1 | 3.8 | .811 | 1.1 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 19.5 | 107 | 105 |
| Rashad Vaughn | 70 | 6 | 1001 | 4.1 | 13.5 | .305 | 2.2 | 7.5 | .293 | 1.9 | 6.1 | .319 | 0.6 | 0.8 | .800 | 0.6 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 3.7 | 11.0 | 83 | 112 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/29/2016.
Even if the Clippers lottery-protected pick does not deliver to its full potential as a first-rounder, the Bucks are still faced with the reality of giving up at the least three second-round picks, one of which (Powell) is already showing value.
Of course, we have no guarantee that Powell would have been Milwaukee’s selection if they had chosen to retain the pick for themselves, but the sense of “what could have been” ensures that his progress stings Bucks fans nonetheless.
The cost and outcomes of the trade don’t really matter when looking at the specific value of Vasquez to the Bucks roster, but recalling the deal by re-signing Greivis to a new contract would dredge up bad memories of a transaction gone awry.
All of the above issues would be somewhat excusable if Vasquez were a boon to the Bucks’ rather paltry defense, but the simple fact is he is not. Vasquez posted an even worse Defensive Box Plus-Minus (DBPM) at minus-3.9 points per 100 possessions than his offensive BPM counterpart (-3.0) in 2016, and last season was not an isolated case.
Vasquez has posted a negative DBPM every season of his career, meaning he is consistently a detriment to his squad’s point-preventing effort, and the Bucks in their current state, what with incumbent starters and a defensively challenged frontcourt of Jabari Parker and Greg Monroe, simply cannot afford to play a player of that type for major minutes.
At 29 years old, Vasquez’s best days on the court are likely behind him, and although he may not be in line to make as much next season as the $6.6 million he garnered in 2016, Bucks fans and execs are presumably ready to rid themselves of the bad taste the 2015 season left, and in turn, let one of the worst pieces of that season walk away.
Vasquez is an unrestricted free agent, so John Hammond and Company do not have the responsibility of matching potential offer sheets the guard would ink with other franchises.
A player that excels in the same role Vasquez was brought in to fill would be a great addition to the current Bucks roster; however last season should be taken as evidence that Vasquez is not capable of filling this role for the team.
Final Verdict: Let Go
Next: Jerryd Bayless
Jerryd Bayless
2015-16 Key Stats:10.4 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 3.1 apg
2015-16 Cap Hit: $3 million
Like the aforementioned Vasquez and Mayo, Jerryd Bayless is yet another combo guard brought in to provide perimeter shooting and bench scoring. Like Mayo, the former Arizona Wildcat saw time at starting point guard and reserve two-guard.
Unlike the previous two players, Bayless was at large, a success in filling this role. Shooting nearly 43 percent from three-point range was largely unexpected but a welcome boost from a player with a career 36.5 percentage.
Bayless’ behind the arc efficiency was even more impressive when one considers it came on 4.4 attempts per game, a career high.
Some regression to the mean is to be expected, but chances are the Bucks will want to bring back a mature player who can shoot the three, play both guard positions, and provide leadership.
None of this is to say bringing him back will be easy, as the rest of the league surely took notice of his shooting exploits. Bayless stands to make much more than the $3 million he earned last season, and given that he is an unrestricted free agent, retaining him may be difficult.
In spite of this, the Bucks front office should do everything within reason to ensure he ends up back in a Bucks uniform next season.
Final Verdict: Re-sign
Next: Miles Plumlee
Miles Plumlee
2015-16 Key Stats: 5.1 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 0.8 bpg
2015-16 Cap Hit:$2.1 million
With the Buck’ offseason signings of centers Greg Monroe and John Henson (extension), the role of reserve center Miles Plumlee coming into the season seemed unclear.
Being thrown in as an addition to the Brandon Knight/Michael Carter-Williams trade, Plumlee seemed destined to wallow on the bench, playing only 10 minutes per game with the Bucks after the All-Star break in 2014-2015. Last season, Plumlee started the year playing 9.5 minutes per game, mostly in mop-up duty and in relief of John Henson, who missed 25 games with various injuries.
However, after the All-Star break, Coach Kidd turned to Plumlee, as the Duke product started 11 of the Bucks final 28 games, also seeing his minutes rise to 19.9 per game. Perhaps not coincidentally, the Bucks were 7-7 in games Plumlee started, compared to their overall record of 33-49.
In contrast to the largely unathletic Greg Monroe, whose game revolves around low-block touches and back-to-the-basket post ups, Plumlee operates as an explosive rim-runner and finisher, pairing nicely in the pick and roll with Giannis Antetokounmpo. Plumlee became a fan favorite due to his pure activity, hustle in contesting shots, and rebounding with an intensity that was seemingly sometimes lacking with Monroe.
As detailed recently, the Bucks have a desire to bring Plumlee back, extending a qualifying offer that allows them to match any offer he would receive from another team. Plumlee’s improved play has not gone unnoticed around the league, and he is likely to receive a substantial offer under the new salary cap structure.
Miles, although only four seasons into his NBA career, is already 27 years old, so there may not be much room for improvement, and with three men capable of playing minutes at center in Henson, Monroe, and the newly drafted Thon Maker under contract, it appears as if there may be another logjam down low.
However, reports detail an increased desire on the part of the front office to move Monroe, and with questions about almost every facet of Maker’s career (enough about his age!), signing Plumlee becomes if not a necessity, certainly a goal, as long as the front office doesn’t drastically overpay.
Final Verdict: Re-sign
Next: Steve Novak
Steve Novak
2015-16 Key Stats: 2.4 ppg
2015-16 Cap Hit: $300k
The signing of Steve Novak late in the season gave a new kind of hope to Bucks fans that didn’t necessarily come with a boost on the court.
Sure the journeyman three-point marksman replaced Chris Copeland as the Bucks resident three-point shooting power forward with defensive limitations, but Novak, who played college ball locally at Marquette, brought a maturity and zeal for the city and organization to the Bucks.
Even this summer, when he is not under contract, Novak has been a community ambassador for the Bucks, appearing at unveilings of the new arena and showing support for new draftees.
A career 43 percent three-point shooter, he can be a boost in specialized roles even though virtually all other aspects of his game are subpar. Novak can likely be had at the very minimum price, and this is a signing the Bucks should have no trouble pulling off.
Final Verdict: Re-sign
Next: Thon Maker Is Paving A Path For Others Like Him To Follow
Be sure to check in with us at Behind the Buck Pass over the coming days and weeks for more free agent news and analysis!