The Milwaukee Bucks and Miles Plumlee have reportedly agreed to a four-year, $52 million deal. Is that good value?
After a long, quiet waiting period the Milwaukee Bucks have finally agreed to a deal with restricted free agent center Miles Plumlee.
No reports about Plumlee meeting with any teams had come up all summer, but on Monday morning ESPN’s Marc Stein tweeted that he and the Bucks had reached an agreement.
Restricted free agent Miles Plumlee and the Bucks have come to terms on a four-year, $52 million deal, agent Mark Bartelstein tells ESPN.
— Marc Stein (@TheSteinLine) July 18, 2016
That’s quite a bit of money for a guy who was battling to get minutes for the first half of last season, but not a ridiculous amount for a guy who led the 2015-16 Milwaukee Bucks in net rating and offensive rating.
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Plumlee and the Bucks both expressed interest in staying together after this season, and that makes sense. Both parties benefit from this deal–Plumlee gets paid and gets to stay on a team that emphasizes his strengths, and the Bucks solidify their center rotation for the next four years.
Ignoring the Moose in the room for the moment, John Henson and Miles Plumlee will make up a strong two-man center group for the Bucks. Thon Maker could probably sneak in as the third guy there, although those two likely won’t leave too many minutes on the table when healthy.
Still, is giving Miles Plumlee $52 million an overpay? Was this a good contract for Milwaukee? Let’s look through the pros, cons, salary and fit of Plumlee to determine how the Bucks did.
Next: Pros
Pros
Miles Plumlee is efficient. He hit over 60 percent of his field goal attempts last season, which ranks first among all Bucks. The bulk of Plumlee’s shots (68.7 percent) came within three feet of the basket, which is fine for a center.
In spot minutes last season Plumlee found ways to impress. His per game stats aren’t remarkable due to not playing all too often, but he averaged 13.0 points, 9.7 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per 36 minutes last year.
Plumlee was especially good in the 14 games he started for the Bucks last season. His field goal percentage rose to 66.7 percent, his offensive rating spiked to 120, and his defensive rating dropped to 107 when Plumlee got the starting nod. He was also good as a starter on the Phoenix Suns, averaging 8.1 points, 7.8 rebounds and 1.1 blocks in 24.6 minutes per game back in 2014.
There’s no guarantee he’ll be the starter in Milwaukee going forward, but it is good to note that Plumlee can and has thrived in that role before. Considering he’s likely going to be a backup center behind John Henson going forward, Plumlee almost feels overqualified.
Next: Cons
Cons
As good as Plumlee was last season, he’s fairly far from a proven player. $52 million is a lot of money to pay out to someone whose: never averaged ten points per game in a season, never averaged eight rebounds per game in a season, has logged just 16 playoff minutes, and who never posted an above-average PER until this past season.
Lots of statistics like Plumlee’s efficiency, but there’s not much denying that his game is largely based on hustle. It’s great that he puts so much energy into his performances on the floor, but Plumlee needs to do that to stay on the floor.
Plumlee also isn’t a good free throw shooter, which means the Milwaukee Bucks will likely be the first ones to vote yes on any rule banning Hack-A-Shaq. With both Plumlee and Henson on the team, Milwaukee won’t be able to escape being hacked if Greg Monroe really is dealt.
The final concern with Miles Plumlee is that his high level of play last year was an aberration. Here are Plumlee’s true shooting percentages by season: 28.6, 52.9, 53.6 and 60.6. After an atrocious and short rookie season, Plumlee milled around in the low 50s until suddenly shooting up to over 60 percent.
Is that indicative of just how well he fits with these Milwaukee Bucks, or did Plumlee just happen to peak right before free agency? The Bucks certainly hope it’s the former and not the latter.
Next: Salary
Salary
$52 million is a lot of money. It’s not insane to give to a role player considering the new NBA salary cap, but it’s still a lot of money. Plumlee’s deal falls somewhere between great and terrible when looking at what other centers got this summer.
It doesn’t look too great compared to Festus Ezeli‘s two-year, $14.7 million deal, Boban Marjanovic‘s three-year, $21 million deal or Al Jefferson‘s three-year, $30 million deal.
But compared to Timofey Mozgov getting a four-year, $64 million deal or Joakim Noah getting $72 million over the same duration, Plumlee’s contract doesn’t seem so ridiculous.
The real disapointment here is that it seems the Bucks were bidding against themselves, and still ended up shelling out that kind of cash. There could have been other suitors in the wings for Plumlee, but this deal would be easier to swallow if it were Milwaukee matching an offer sheet rather than the Bucks simply paying out that kind of money.
Next: Fit
Fit
Whether he’s starting games or relieving John Henson, there’s no question that Miles Plumlee is an ideal fit for the Milwaukee Bucks. Unlike the Mirza Teletovic and Matthew Dellavedova signings there’s no need to predict anything here–Plumlee has proven he’s an ideal guy to pair with the young core.
His high motor and rim-running style makes him an ideal partner for the high-flying young Bucks, especially Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker. Those two need to get inside the paint to score for the most part.
Plumlee is good at getting out of the way of those two, something Greg Monroe simply couldn;t do. He’s always a threat to finish an alley-oop as well–teams have to keep an eye on the rim at all times with Plumlee on the floor.
His attitude is a boon too. Plumlee is a hard worker who has never been involved with a negative chemistry story or anything like that–he’s not going to do anything crazy. Instead he’ll work hard and do some damage around the rim on both ends of the floor.
Next: Final Grade
Final Grade
It can be hard to stomach a role player like Miles Plumlee getting a four-year, $52 million deal for fans of the NBA. It shouldn’t be, though. That’s just simple economics, considering where the salary cap is going.
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The salary cap is around $93 million this year. Plumlee and Henson combine to make around $24 million. That’s slightly more than a fourth of the cap this year and likely around a fifth of it over the next three to ensure the team has a strong, deep center rotation.
Was this an overpay? Probably. Was it worth it to keep Plumlee around and solidify the Bucks young core? Hopefully.
If the Bucks can find a way to add a real back-up wing player at this point–still possible because Plumlee hasn’t officially signed just yet–they’ll have a complete depth chart at every position. That’s saying a ton considering the disaster Milwaukee’s bench turned out to be last season.
Final Grade: C
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Overpaying for Miles Plumlee to make that happen might be worth it, even if Plumlee himself might not be.