After heading to UCLA as a McDonald’s All-American, T.J. Leaf had a productive season to help the Bruins reach their highest level of national media attention since Kevin Love and Russell Westbrook.
Who is T.J. Leaf?
T.J. Leaf was born in Israel, where his father played ball professionally. He holds dual citizenship, but spent most of his childhood learning the game in Lakeside, California. After originally committing to the University of Arizona, Leaf had a change of heart and committed to the Bruins.
The freshman had a very nice season, earning himself a spot on the First-Team All-Pac-12, and leading the Bruins in points and rebounds.
| School | G | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 2P | 2PA | 2P% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | 35 | 29.9 | 6.7 | 10.9 | .617 | 5.9 | 9.2 | .644 | 0.8 | 1.7 | .466 | 2.1 | 3.0 | .679 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 16.3 |
Provided by CBB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 4/6/2017.
Leaf declared for the draft and signed with an agent shortly after UCLA lost their sweet 16 game to Kentucky. There wasn’t a ton of NBA hype around the freshman before the season started, but his impressive season shot him into first round and lottery considerations.
He’s set to turn 20 years old on Apr. 30. Draft stocks tend to flat-line outside of the lottery when a prospect is set to turn 21, so it’s smart for Leaf to capitalize on his opportunity to be a first round pick this year.
The UCLA big man would have needed a Frank Kaminsky-type sophomore season to see his draft projections improve even more.
As it stands, he should be a fairly safe pick for a team that’s in need of a stretch four with a high basketball IQ.
Now, let’s look more in depth what the Bruins freshman did well, struggled with, and his possible fit with the Milwaukee Bucks.
Strengths
Leaf’s game is built around his knowledge of the game. He plays hard and knows how to maneuver within the offense. He averaged 2.4 assists per game, which is pretty impressive for a forward in college basketball, as many point guards struggle to hit three assists per game.
Leaf shot an impressive percentage from the three-point line, but didn’t shoot enough to give team’s an adequate sample size. His UCLA team was loaded with talent, and as is the case with most Kentucky teams, some prospects have to play within the system more than showing their individual skill-set off. As a result, teams will need to decide if Leaf’s unorthodox shooting form will fly in the NBA.
He did hold his own scoring in the paint, as he was able to back down weaker opponents and score through contact. He played well in both matchups with Kentucky, but struggled against many of the better defenses on the Bruins schedule.
That being said he did shoot 64 percent from the field on the season, and if you look at the highlights from his conference play, Leaf made a lot of contested shots in the paint. He’s got a great touch around the basket. He’s able to take the contact, and time his release to shoot the ball at the exact moment when he’s able to squeeze it through his defender’s arms.
Leaf is not the most talented defender, but puts adequate effort into putting a body on his man and contesting shots. Opponents can push Leaf around in the paint, but with his obvious understanding of the game, he’s able to stand with stronger opponents.
Weaknesses
There are a number of concerns about Leaf’s game. For a stretch four, he’ll struggle to consistently shoot at a high mark from three with his form. Leaf’s elbow torques in an odd fashion, hurting his extension, and possibly his vision of the rim. His off arm also could effect his shot, as it bends in a way that makes my arm very uncomfortable as I try to recreate it.
Perhaps more concerning, Leaf lets the ball rest deep in his palm. Keeping the ball on the tips of your fingers may seem like you don’t have an acceptable grip on the ball, but it allows the shooter to have far more accuracy.
Shooting from your palm makes the ball come off in different directions. It can also influence the depth perception and arc. Shooting from your fingertips allows you to hit your target at a much higher clip. As an example, Kyle Korver rarely misses badly, and that can be attributed to his incredible form.
All that being said, Leaf has been known to have an impressive work ethic. The more shots he puts up, the more lethal of a shooter he could become, simple as that. His form may always impact his consistency, but his work ethic can make him a threat.
Another concern with Leaf’s game is his ability to hold up defensively in the paint. The NBA is full of big dudes, and that was a problem for the potential lottery pick during his freshman season.
Bucks fans may remember Mirza Teletovic trying to guard Anthony Davis in the paint multiple times this season. Well, T.J. Leaf may fare similarly. Once again, his work ethic will hopefully limit disadvantages in the post as he enters the NBA training system. Bulking up could make a world of difference.
Although he is a plus playmaker for his position, he looks uncomfortable with the ball in his hands. He can get too straight up while dribbling the ball, and questions exactly what to do with it. Leaf usually makes the correct decision, but it feels like he overthinks every movement on the floor.
What The Experts Say
(As of 4/11/17)
Draft Express (Jonathan Givony): 24th
ESPN (Chad Ford): 17th
CBS (Howard Megdal): 22nd
Sporting News (Sam Vecenie): 26th
The Step Back (Trevor Magnotti and Chris Stone): 33rd
Quotes:
Jonathan Givony of Draft Express breaks down the importance of the eventual UCLA loss to the Kentucky Wildcats for the prospect’s draft stock, and the concerns some scouts have about the freshman.
"“Scouts will also be keeping a close eye on T.J. Leaf, who continues to be a lightning rod of a prospect, with no clear consensus from talent evaluators. Naysayers point to his shockingly poor splits, which indicate that he struggles mightily against quality competition, while putting up tremendous numbers against woefully overmatched opponents. Supporters are quick to bring up his game against Kentucky in December, where he had 17 points, 13 rebounds and 5 assists and was likely the catalyst behind UCLA’s upset win in Lexington."
Sam Vecenie of Sporting News is very complimentary of Leaf’s game, but alludes to his difficulties on the defensive end.
"“Leaf is the same guy he was early in the season: a polished stretch-four with some post ability, passing skill and better athleticism than he gets credit for. He also, though, hasn’t quite gotten to where he needs to be on defense.”"
Fit With The Bucks
Drafting T.J. Leaf would be an interesting choice by the Milwaukee front office. Although expected to come off the bench to start his professional career, he’s still at a position of depth for the Bucks.
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That being said, there may not be a better situation for the UCLA freshman than the Milwaukee Bucks. Playing alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo would give him the best chance at finding the space needed to get his shot off.
Leaf certainly has the potential to crack a starting lineup in the league, but it’s more likely he’d spend his time in Milwaukee as the team’s back up, unless Jabari Parker continues to struggle with his health. The Bucks may be better served adding another guard to the fold.
Leaf would be a nice fit for the offensive schemes, but would be a liability chasing three-point shooters out to the line on the defensive end. He’d also have a hard time changing directions to help his teammate contest their assignment left open.
Next: NBA Draft 2017 Prospect Watch: Malik Monk
Despite the questionable need of another stretch four, Leaf is expected to be available when the Bucks draft. It’s not every year that a McDonald’s All-American is available in the second half of the draft after an impressive freshman season, and maybe the Bucks will decide to make a bold move.