Jabari Parker is a young and extremely talented franchise building player who has now torn his ACL twice. As a result, the Milwaukee Bucks have decisions to make when it comes to extending his contract.
Prior to ever taking to an NBA court with the Milwaukee Bucks, Jabari Parker was dubbed by Sports Illustrated as the best high school player since LeBron James.
Parker attended Duke university for one year under the tutelage of coach Mike Krzyzewski before declaring for the NBA draft. The Bucks then selected Parker with the second overall pick of the 2014 NBA draft and the excitement of Bucks fans began to rise.
In the time since, there has been plenty of cause for further optimism among Bucks fans, although to date Parker hasn’t always been at the center of what’s translated on the court.
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Two of Parker’s three seasons in the NBA have been cut short with ACL injuries, both in his rookie season and in the season that has just wrapped up for Milwaukee. While the circumstances and personnel were different in each year, it must be noted the Milwaukee Bucks made the playoffs in both of the seasons that Parker fell to injury.
Now with his rookie deal winding down, player and team are both put in a difficult situation. As it stands with Parker still in the early stages of rehabilitation, both parties have to take a hard look at the risks and rewards of a possible contract extension.
Parker is under contract with Milwaukee for next season with the team having exercised its fourth year option, but is eligible for an early extension this summer that would prevent him from hitting the market as a restricted free agent next summer.
What are the chances of that materializing, and what would it mean for Parker and the Bucks? Let’s get into some of the details.
Parker’s Qualifications
In three NBA seasons Parker has shown vast improvements in his overall game, but most notably in terms of his ability to score.
In his rookie year Parker averaged 12.3 points per game followed up by improvements to 14.1 points in 2015-2016 and 20.1 points per game this past season.
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/10/2017.
As Parker has moved to play more of a stretch forward position, allowing Giannis Antetokounmpo to play at power forward, offensively his three-point field goal attempts and accuracy have hit career-highs. Parker made a total of 13 three-point field goals in his first two seasons, followed by a breakout shooting performance this year when he hit 65 three-point field goals at a respectable 36.5 percent clip.
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/10/2017.
Parker is an offensive weapon, and all offensive measures point to him bringing at least 20 points and five rebounds to the table on a nightly basis.
If anything, in terms of Parker’s skill-set, is going to concern the Bucks, it’s going to be his defensive deficiencies.
With Parker on the court this season the Bucks allowed 109.3 points to their opponents per 100 possessions. This was the worst mark on the team outside of the likes of Axel Toupane and Gary Payton II who only played a combined eight games.
The leaders in defensive rating of players who average 25 minutes or more per game include Joel Embiid (99.1), Draymond Green (99.3), and Rudy Gobert (100.6). The chances of Parker ever finding his name in that kind of company are close to zero, but it’s the disparity between him and the rest of his teammates that’s alarming in its own right.
While the Bucks can’t expect Parker to be the best defensive player on the court, they’d certainly hope for a positive net rating. To put it simply, the aim would be for his offensive gains to outweigh his defensive drawbacks.
In the context of the season overall, assessing Parker’s net rating against his teammates may not be entirely fair as the shape of the team changed after Parker’s injury and Khris Middleton‘s return.
The most common five man combination Parker played with this past year — Giannis Antetokounmpo, Matthew Dellavedova, John Henson, and Tony Snell — did not include the likes of Khris Middleton (104.7) or Thon Maker (105.4), who are both considered to be strong defensive players.
In 2015-2016, it included a combination of Antetokounmpo, Michael Carter-Williams, Middleton, and Greg Monroe. In Parker’s rookie season the most common five man combination included Antekokuonmpo, Brandon Knight, O.J. Mayo, and Larry Sanders.
Parker has been faced with three new faces in his most common five man combinations every season in his young career to date, with Antetokounmpo being the only mainstay. Although there’s no doubt Parker has his own issues with awareness defensively, that means it’s also difficult for Bucks management to feel they have an accurate picture of Parker defensively.
Risk
Unfortunately — troublesome as it is — defense is far from the biggest concern surrounding Jabari Parker. The elephant in the room in any talks involving an extension for Jabari is going to be his injury struggles.
Injuries are a part of the game. Each year a player goes down with an injury that derails or, in extreme cases, even finishes their career. Some of the names that come to mind from having suffered such injuries include Shaun Livingston, Grant Hill, and the Bucks’ very own Michael Redd.
Looking more specifically at Parker’s injury, players who have suffered multiple ACL injuries include Josh Howard, and the aformentioned Redd. Considering both were past 30 years of age at the time, the injuries effectively ended their careers and can’t easily be used as a measuring stick for Parker’s recovery.
A ray of light for Parker could be the recovery of San Antonio Spurs forward Davis Bertans. Still only 24 years old, the Latvian recovered from two torn ACLs early in his career in Europe and has since managed to make an impact in the NBA.
Granting Parker a big extension in the middle of the recovery process would certainly be a leap of faith, though.
The primary example of a player signing a long term deal and suffering a potential career changing injury is another former Simeon alumni, Derrick Rose. Prior to securing a long-term contract, Rose won the 2010-11 MVP. Rose signed a five-year extension for $94.3 million on Dec. 21, 2011.
The Chicago Bulls were contenders again as the talented, athletic point guard cut through and exploded over defenses on a regular basis.
Rose signed that extension with only minor injuries throughout his first three seasons in the NBA. In the playoffs of the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season, Rose suffered an ACL injury causing him to miss the entirety of the following season. In the following year, Rose suffered another major injury, tearing a meniscus in his knee and only playing 10 games.
Rose came back from injury, but has never really been the same explosive player that many expected to challenge LeBron James’ lengthy run of dominance in the East. A player who often relied on athleticism to score has since been caught relying on a shaky jump shot instead.
Rose went from MVP and franchise player to being traded away for rotation players.
Parker is faced with his second comeback from an ACL injury. The risks are obvious for a player coming back from a serious injury, and for that matter, two significant injuries like Derrick Rose had to before Jabari.
We may see a completely different Jabari Parker. Parker’s dunk attempts after finding a hole in the defense may be limited, along with the potential for less lift on his jump shot. The Bucks may see a different player come back into the lineup next year, and one that may not look like the Parker of the past three years.
If you’re a glass half empty kind of fan, the reasons to be concerned about how an extension for Parker would age are plentiful.
Stephen Curry Like Reward
Stephen Curry came into the league in 2009 and finished second in the NBA Rookie of the Year voting with season averages of 17.5 points and 5.9 assists. The next year he added to that promise, following up those high rookie marks with 18.6 points and 5.8 assists.
However during the 2011-12 season, Curry only played a total of 26 games due to injury in a lockout-shortened season. Curry appeared to have “a cloud hanging over” his NBA future, as reported at the time by the Mercury News.
"“For most of the previous two seasons, Curry’s right ankle has been a cloud hanging over his NBA career and the Warriors’ chances. He sprained the same ankle multiple times during the 2010-11 season, prompting surgery in May 2011 to repair torn ligaments. But that didn’t prevent multiple sprains during the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season. He had another surgery in April 2012 on his right ankle. And after months of rehab, he returned to action in time for training camp. He showed enough progress for the Warriors to sign him to a four-year, $44 million contract extension.”"
At the time of the signing many writers around the NBA didn’t approve of Curry’s contract extension. Today, it is thought of as a steal, and one of the main reasons behind the Warriors’ ability to re-sign the likes of Klay Thompson and Draymond Green and sign newcomer Kevin Durant.
The gamble on Curry allowed both parties to be happy. Curry was able to secure a long term guaranteed contract and the Warriors gained flexibility and a great value deal as Curry eventually secured MVP honors.
The contract numbers have changed with the new CBA, but the Bucks and Jabari Parker could find themselves in a similar situation. What happen in the next few months could potentially have a significant impact on the future of the franchise.
Options
Two main deadlines lie ahead for Jabari Parker and the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks have until Oct. 31, 2017 to offer an extension to Parker, and until Jun. 29, 2018 to make a qualifying offer and make him a restricted free agent.
The issue lies in the fact that Parker is not expected back until some time around the 2018 All-Star break. This would put Parker playing his first NBA minutes post-injury in Feb. 2018, and at best giving him the opportunity to play in 30-40 games next season.
While Parker’s health remains an issue, this also is an opportunity to offer Parker an extension at a discounted rate. If the Bucks were to wait until after the Oct. 31 deadline and instead make a qualifying offer, Parker would become a restricted free agent (RFA), similar to the Tony Snell contract situation this summer.
Parker would be able to see what the free agent market would offer and allow the Bucks to match any potential offer.
The Bucks could go this route as it would allow more time to see if Parker is healthy. Teams may be unwilling to offer a large contract with the unknowns of Parker’s health and only a small sample of games next season. However, if he did return playing well, he could end up fielding more lucrative offers than Milwaukee could secure him for at present. Very few young franchise players are available via free agency at the age of 23 years old, coming back from injury or not.
Another franchise could offer a max deal and the Bucks would lose all negotiation leverage. The Bucks could still match an offer from another team, but they would lose the ability to dictate the term and amount of the contract. In this kind of situation, simply being seen to match a deal can even come back to haunt a team further down the line when a player hits unrestricted free agency and potentially questions their team’s belief in them.
The NBA is a business and this is a business decision, but the players are still human and for Parker it might not sit well during his next contract negotiation with the team.
There is risk and reward with any player the Bucks choose to give a contract extension to and this case is no different.
As a fan, it’s impossible not to want what’s best for both the franchise and the player in the long term, and I would lean toward signing Parker this year before the Oct. 31 deadline and before Parker ever touches the court.
If the Bucks are fair with the amount they offer Parker, he may be prepared to leave some money on the table in exchange for the security of guaranteed money.
Milwaukee need to present Parker with an offer that proves the organization values him, trusts in his recovery, and believes in him as a cornerstone of the franchise.
Next: Milwaukee Bucks: Best and Worst of the 2016-17 Season
What do you think the Bucks and Parker should do? Let us know in the comments below.