One of the best shooters in college basketball a year ago, sophomore guard Luke Kennard has a lot of game he can bring to the table in the NBA.
Who is Luke Kennard?
A top-25 recruit across three of the major sites (ESPN – 24, Rivals – 25, Scout – 22), Luke Kennard came into his own during his sophomore season at Duke to assert himself as one of the country’s best young players.
During his senior year in high school, Kennard dropped over 50 points in five games en route to putting up 38.1 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game. But in addition to basketball, Kennard was a three-year varsity quarterback in Franklin, Ohio, even being awarded the 2013 Offensive Player of the Year in Division II in his state.
In his freshman season at Duke, Kennard was a solid player. He held averages of 11.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game. This past season, though, Kennard exploded on to the scene, starting 36 of 37 games for the Blue Devils and becoming an elite shooter from three-point land.
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After just shooting just 31.8 percent from three as a freshman on 4.8 attempts per game, Kennard shot a scorching 43.8 percent as a sophomore on 5.4 attempts per game. This improvement in consistency from deep made him an incredibly versatile scorer both beyond the arc and inside, which led him to nearly 20 points per game on the season.
As a reward for his play in 2016-17, Kennard was named to the second team All-America in addition to being a unanimous choice for the All-ACC team. In regard to his future in professional basketball, Kennard declared for the NBA Draft on April 6, and is regarded as a first round prospect.
He is listed at 6’6″ with a 6’5″ wingspan and will turn 21 years of age just two days after the NBA Draft.
| Season | G | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 2P% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 37 | 35.5 | 6.4 | 13.1 | .490 | .527 | 2.4 | 5.4 | .438 | 4.3 | 5.1 | .856 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 19.5 |
Provided by CBB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
| Season | PER | TS% | eFG% | 3PAr | FTr | PProd | TRB% | AST% | TOV% | USG% | WS/40 | OBPM | DBPM | BPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 24.4 | .630 | .581 | .415 | .386 | 673 | 8.2 | 13.6 | 9.3 | 24.0 | .218 | 8.4 | 1.2 | 9.5 |
Provided by CBB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Strengths
The biggest strength in Luke Kennard’s game is definitely his shooting. Thanks to teams like the Golden State Warriors, the NBA is transitioning towards much more three-point shooting. With that being said, every team can use another shooter, even if that shooter comes off the bench. In college, Kennard shot 43.8 percent from three, a rate that can hopefully translate well to the NBA.
Due to his ability to shoot the three and get to the free throw line, Kennard ended his sophomore campaign with a true shooting percentage at 63.0 percent, which ranks second among guards expected to be drafted this June. Lonzo Ball is the only prospect who had a higher percentage (67.3 percent).
Not only does Kennard knock down his open three-pointers, but he does a great job in pull-up situations and reading when to take jump shots in the pick-and-roll. Although his 6’6″ frame and skill-set lends itself to playing the shooting guard, Kennard’s decisionmaking leaves potential for him to play as a combo guard, spending some possessions at the point.
Kennard’s 2.5 assists per game hardly tell the tale of his passing ability. Although Kennard lacks a great wingspan, his height allows him to see over a lot of defenders. Even with a 24 percent usage percentage, Kennard only committed 1.6 turnovers per game during his sophomore season. He takes care of the ball well and seems to always make the right pass.
In addition to spot-up shooting and passing, Kennard has incredible footwork for a guard. He does not possess the athleticism a lot of guards have in the NBA, but he is crafty in getting to his spot and finding room to get his shot off. He uses a wide array of moves, including a nifty up-and-under to score while working in one-on-one situations. And despite not being an incredibly good scorer around the rim, he finishes well with either hand when in the paint.
On the whole, Kennard is a versatile offensive scorer with the way that he spreads the floor and can play within a team offense. Kennard does not need to have the ball in his hands to make an impact, but when he does, he can either score on his own or find the open man for a better shot.
Weaknesses
The biggest weakness in Kennard’s game is that he lacks elite athleticism. His size is solid for the guard position at 6’6″, but his wingspan measures at 6’5″ and he is not overly quick or a great leaper. With that being said, several limitations come with his lack of athleticism, most of which come on the defensive end of the floor.
Before getting too far into the downfalls of Kennard’s defensive game, it is important to note that Kennard is a solid defender in the frame of a team’s defense. He understands where to be in rotations and can read the opponent rather well. Yet, when placed in a one-on-one situation against a ball-handler, he can be beaten easily.
Kennard does not have the quickness or speed to keep up with shifty ball-handlers and can occasionally get lost in the pick-and-roll. In addition, his lack of length due to a short wingspan makes contesting shots a challenge. If he gets beaten off the dribble, he can’t easily make up for that with long arms contesting shots or blocking them at the rim.
In addition to how his athleticism hurts his defense, Kennard’s offense is also impacted. His shooting and playmaking should be able to translate well to the NBA, but he might not be able to create shots for himself as easily at the next level. He might struggle getting past his man in one-on-one situations and will often need a screen in order to get open.
Also, his short wingspan could make his shot a little more difficult to get off in traffic when guarded by a defender who can extend well on jump shots. Kennard’s creativity in how he creates space should help him get shots off cleanly, however.
What the Experts Say
(as of 5/20/17)
Draft Express (Jonathan Givony): 16th
ESPN (Chad Ford): 14th
CBS (Howard Megdal): 35th
Sporting News (Sam Vecenie): 13th
The Step Back (Trevor Magnotti): 17th
Behind the Buck Pass (Lukas Harkins): 24th
Quotes:
Draft Express on Kennard’s ability to do more than shoot in their report:
"“He was very functional operating out of the pick and roll, in no small part due to his shot-making prowess, but also because of his ability to find the open man. Kennard sees over the top of the defense at 6’6 and is a very willing facilitator who almost never turns the ball over. He makes quick reads and decisions within the flow of the offense, seeing things evolving on the court and adjusting on the fly with a very high basketball IQ. There are some NBA people that feel he has legit combo guard potential with his strong handle, impressive vision, and ability to make shots off the bounce, something that would certainly boost his NBA prospects.”"
Bleacher Report on where Kennard can succeed in the NBA:
"“Kennard is a “fit” prospect. Both his immediate impact and his long-term outlook will be dependent on landing with a team that can highlight his strengths, namely ball movement and shooting, and minimize his defensive question marks. If the right spot is found, he’s one of the most undervalued assets.”"
Fit in Milwaukee
In my Mock Draft 1.0, which was released just after the NBA Draft Lottery, I had the Milwaukee Bucks selecting Kennard with the 17th pick in the first round. The Bucks were a much-improved shooting team from 2015-16 to 2016-17, but there is still room to get better.
With Giannis Antetokounmpo as the center of the offense, adding as many shooters as possible around him would make for a very fun offense. The backcourt has some very solid pieces already considering Malcolm Brogdon, Khris Middleton, and Tony Snell (if he re-signs), but Kennard’s upside as a versatile combo guard would fit nicely.
Kennard is not nearly the “project” that prior Milwaukee first-round picks Antetokounmpo, Rashad Vaughn, or Thon Maker were, and he should be able to contribute to the team right away. The Bucks used their second-round pick last season on another ACC player who had a successful college career in Malcolm Brogdon, so hopes could be high that Kennard could do the same.
With Jabari Parker already on the roster, Kennard would be the second Duke Blue Devil to find his way onto the Bucks roster, filling the void left by Miles Plumlee after he was traded during the 2016-17 season.
On the whole, Kennard’s crafty offensive play, three-point shooting ability, and knowledge of how to play within a team dynamic make him a relatively safe pick at the 17th spot. There will be lots of high risk/high reward players left on the board at that time, and finding a rotation player in the NBA Draft is not as easy as it sounds.
Next: NBA Draft 2017 Prospect Watch: Josh Hart
With a solid core featuring Brogdon, Middleton, Giannis, Jabari, and Thon already in the making, adding Luke Kennard, a player who can contribute right away and fit well for years to come, might just be the right choice for the young Milwaukee team.