NBA Draft 2017 Prospect Watch: Dennis Smith Jr

Dennis Smith Jr. is one of the top point guard prospects of a stacked point guard class in this year’s NBA Draft.

All the hype in the 2017 NBA Draft is surrounding Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball as most experts have Fultz and Ball going in the top two picks of the draft. Beyond them, there are others with the talent to end up as the best of the class, though. Particularly at the point guard position.

Anyone who has seen Dennis Smith Jr. play throughout the season will know that he has the ability to be ranked right up there along with Fultz and Ball, when all is said and done.

Coming out of high school in North Carolina, Dennis Smith Jr. was the number one point guard recruit and fourth overall in the 2016 class according to ESPN’s Top 100, ahead of the likes of Fultz, Ball, and De’Aaron Fox.

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Before Smith chose to play basketball at North Carolina State, he suffered an ACL injury in August 2015 during the semi-finals of an Adidas Nations event. After the six to nine month recovery, Smith graduated high school and enrolled early at NC State in January 2016.

As Milwaukee Buck fans know with Jabari Parker, it takes time to recover and return to full strength. Not only to return to physical shape but also to prepare yourself mentally to overcome the hurdles associated with a major injury.

Dennis Smith Jr. overcame the injury and broke into college basketball and the ACC earning Freshman of the Year honors. While Smith was electrifying on the court, NC State was not, finishing up the year with a losing record of 15-17.

Questions are apparent for this expected lottery pick as everyone’s game is dissected, but the skill and athleticism are there in the tape for all to see.

Let’s take a look at what Smith can bring to an NBA franchise by looking at his strengths, weaknesses, what the experts say, and his potential fit with the Milwaukee Bucks.

Strengths

Dennis Smith Jr. is an explosive basketball player. When watching highlights and tape it’s easy to get excited with his explosive dunks, quickness off the dribble, and handle with the ball in his hands.

While at NC State, Smith put up big numbers, averaging 18.1 points, 6.2 assists, and 4.6 rebounds per game.

Leading the ACC in assists, second in steals (with 1.9 steals per game, only behind Donovan Mitchell of Louisville), eighth in points per game, fifth in free throw attempts, and 10th in field goal percentage with 45.5 percent.

Smith has also shown he can attack and get to the free throw line, averaging 6.3 attempts per game on the season. What you want your point guard to be able to do is attack and score, attack and dish, or attack and get fouled; Smith fits that bill.

Coming out of the break, attacking off of ball screens, and hesitation dribbles allow Smith to score at a high rate. He gets the ball and runs down hill while everyone tries to catch up.

Provided by CBB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 6/2/2017.

Listed as 6’3″ and 195 pounds, Smith has the foundations of an NBA style body. While he skipped the NBA Draft Combine for measurements, in 2014 Smith measured out with a 6’3″ wing span. That’s not exceptionally long compared to other guards, but for what he lacks in wing span, he easily makes up for in vertical leaping.

Smith has shown he can take contact and finish over taller players inside. While taking off from around the middle of the lane for a two-footed power dunk is fun to watch, not every NBA team will part the lane so easily, and so there’s plenty for him to learn still.

As a result of his explosive moves, Smith often creates space for his jump shot not only from his quickness, but also his ability to rise higher than his opponents.

Weaknesses

Smith can get to the rim easily and explode for highlight reel dunks, but can he shoot?

He is not a knock down three-point shooter by any means, but in one season at NC State he did shoot 35.9 percent. Markelle Fultz (41.3 percent), Lonzo Ball (41.2 percent), De’Aaron Fox ( 24.6 percent), Frank Ntilikina (43.1 percent) are all considered top point guards in the 2017 NBA Draft as comparison.

Smith’s shot is respectable, but he will be tested to make three-point field goals in the NBA. I’m not a shot doctor nor do I play one on TV, but one of the issues with Smith is his inconsistent mechanics. For example, when you watch his shot, you can observe his feet never land in the same spot.

Also, as was noted in Draft Express’ weaknesses video, Smith has different elevations on his jump shot. It sounds simple, but the mechanics — whether it’s follow through, footwork, or elevation — need to be the exact same every time.

When I watched Smith in the ACC and on highlights, I couldn’t help but think he was still playing AAU ball. What I mean by that is the coaching staff at NC State — who were since fired — just rolled out the balls and let the guys play rather than coaching and teaching more structured play. This leads to Smith looking more like a playmaker than a point guard who can lead the offense and his team to victory.

With the Wolfpack going 13-15, and their coach getting fired before the season was even over, all of that can have a factor on a player’s season and the level of focus they have for the game. This potentially hurt Smith in the NBA draft, and is one of the reasons he is not being talked about as much as De’Aaron Fox, who had the opportunity to battle in the NCAA tourney and play better than Lonzo Ball heads up.

As scouts and GMs watch more tape they will see one of the most talented players in this year’s NBA draft. They may also see a player who needs the ball in his hands and tries to do too much, a player who can be careless and disinterested. The question will come down to if Smith can lead an NBA team and that may be something that is missing at this point.

What the Experts Say

(As of 6/1)

DraftExpress (Jonathan Givony): 8th

ESPN (Chad Ford): 8th

CBS Sports (Gary Parrish): 8th

The Ringer (Kevin O’Connor): 6th

Sporting News (Sam Vecenie): 7th

The Step Back (Chris Stone): 5th

Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer had this to say about Dennis Smith Jr. and the risk of drafting him:

"“His athleticism is impressive, but he doesn’t affect winning as a passer or defender, which makes him a high-risk lottery prospect.”"

Jonathan Givony of Draft Express sees a great foundation with Smith, noting:

"“His powerful frame, mixed with his explosive speed and leaping ability, created plenty of highlights in the ACC, and give him a tremendous framework to build off physically looking towards the NBA level.”"

Fit with the Bucks

Dennis Smith Jr. may end up being one of the best players in this year’s draft, but how does he fit with the Bucks?

Currently Matthew Dellavedova and Malcolm Brogdon anchor the Bucks starting point guard rotation. Neither are considered natural scorers who attack the rim, something Smith could bring in heavy doses to Milwaukee.

While in years to come I can see the NBA comparison of John Wall’s explosive play in the open court, mixed in with more of a Dwyane Wade body type to come to fruition, I currently don’t see Smith’s skill and style of play fitting with Milwaukee.

Putting the ball in Smith’s hands takes it out of Giannis’ and Jabari’s, and a more veteran presence at point guard regardless of age is needed for the future.

Of course, none of this goes to mention that Smith is likely to be drafted long before it’s the Bucks’ turn to pick. If Smith was to land in Milwaukee, it would certainly take a trade involving multiple valuable future assets, and considering how his play style compares to other key pieces on the roster that wouldn’t make a lot of sense.

Next: NBA Draft 2017 Prospect Watch: Donovan Mitchell

Overall I don’t think the Bucks make sense for Smith, but if he lives up to his potential expect to see a lethal scoring point guard coming to the new Bucks arena in the future.