Depending on some other moves, the Milwaukee Bucks might need another forward soon. Could Bojan Bogdanovic be a good NBA free agency fit?
It’s certainly possible that the Milwaukee Bucks no longer have Tony Snell around starting next season. After his fantastically solid season in Milwaukee, Snell might get paid more than the Bucks should consider offering for his services.
In that case, the Bucks would need a swingman around to play minutes at both the two and the three. Bojan Bogdanovic could be a great addition to fill the Snell role, if Milwaukee is put in a position to have to replace him.
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Bogdanovic, who was the 31st pick in the 2011 NBA Draft, didn’t come over to the NBA until the 2014-15 season. He started his NBA career with the Brooklyn Nets, and stayed in Brooklyn until he was dealt to the Washington Wizards earlier this past season.
Despite playing just three NBA seasons, Bogdanovic is a bit of an older player. He turned 28 in April, meaning he’s got some good years left but he’s not 21-24, the age most NBA players are after their first contract expires.
Should the Bucks go after Bogdanovic? Let’s find out, by looking through his strengths, weaknesses, potential salary and his fit with Milwaukee.
Strengths
Bojan is a shooter, and we all know that shooters shoot. Bogdanovic, in particular, likes to shoot quite a bit. He’s taken over four threes per game across his NBA career, and made a more-than-solid 36.9 percent of them in that time.
Also impressive is that Bogdanovic makes over 50 percent of his shots from within the arc as well. Many shooters struggle to finish inside — that’s not a huge problem for this Croatian baller.
Bogdanovic picks his spots when he shoots, as he’s no volume scorer most of the time. At 11.3 points per game, it’s tough to say he really tears it up out there. Those points have come on 9.1 shots per game though, meaning Bogdanovic scorers efficiently.
Notice the ‘most of the time’ when talking about Bojan not being a volume scorer. That was necessary because he dropped 44 points on the Philadelphia 76ers last season, and put up 16 20-point games this past season. Bojan can get buckets.
Weaknesses
Notice that whole last page of strengths is completely focused on Bogdanovic’s offensive game. That’s because he’s not exactly a fantastic defender. Statistics are extra messy because Bojan has been on so many terrible teams, but the eye test reads pretty easily on this one.
Bogdanovic isn’t a terrific athlete, which really hurts considering he guards primarily NBA forwards. I’m not sure if you’ve noticed, but the current crop of forwards the NBA has to offer are a pretty athletically-gifted bunch.
At 6’8″, Bogdanovic can grab bigger assignments so he doesn’t get stuck guarding faster guys on the perimeter all of the time. Still, with offenses seeking out switches whenever they can it can be hard to hide a defensive liability.
The Wizards gave up 109.0 points per 100 possessions in Bojan’s minutes, second-worst among players to log at least 500 minutes last season. Only Marcus Thornton made Washington worse on defense.
Bogdanovic was similarly bad in Brooklyn, where no player to log 500 minutes had a worse impact on the Nets defense, which coughed up 110.7 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor.
Salary
In a vacuum, you’d probably think Bojan Bogdanovic would be an affordable free agent. His offensive game is strong but he’s still putting up 11 points per game, and his defense is not something his agent should even bring up in negotiations.
The NBA is no vacuum, though. This is a league where Allen Crabbe, old man Luol Deng, Ryan Anderson and Nicolas Batum all got $18 million or more per year. Evan Turner is making roughly $17 million per season, and broken Wesley Matthews is getting roughly the same money.
Bojan might not be as good as some of those players, but he’s in the conversation with at least some of them. Add that to the fact that he’s a restricted free agent, and it’s basically a lock that Bojan will get some big money offers.
Teams will sign the forward to offer sheets just to make the Wizards match, if nothing else. That’s how Crabbe and Tyler Johnson got their big deals, thanks to Bojan’s old team. They might even come calling again to try and get him back, although he’s a little older than the Nets typical targets in NBA free agency.
Fit With Bucks
Stylistically, Bojan Bogdanovic would fit in nicely with the Milwaukee Bucks, on offense at least. His ability to knock down threes and do a little work inside would only be heightened by what Giannis Antetokounmpo can do.
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The defense with Bogdanovic would be another story, but the Bucks might just have enough good defenders to help make up for Bojan’s shortcomings. Besides, ideally he would work in second units more than the starting lineup.
The potential salary is the real sticking point here. If Bojan Bogdanovic is going to make as much or more than Tony Snell, the Bucks would be far smarter to simply keep Snell. He’s already fit in the system, and he’s miles better defensively than Bogdanovic.
The real problem is there’s not even a way to get a good deal on Bojan. If Milwaukee or some other team signed him to a ridiculously low contract, the Wizards would thank the team involved and match the offer. The Bucks could work out a deal with Snell for less, but doing so with Bogdanovic wouldn’t work out in Milwaukee’s favor.
Next: Free Agency Profile: Brandon Jennings
As much fun as it is to say Bojan Bogdanovic, the chances are slim to none that he ends up playing for the Milwaukee Bucks next season.