Although he might not have the most stellar reputation among the 2017 NBA free agency class, might Rudy Gay be a good fit with the Milwaukee Bucks?
The 2017 NBA free agency class has some intriguing players to be sure. Rudy Gay, who just finished his fourth season with the Sacramento Kings, is one of those players.
Gay likely wouldn’t have been with the Kings by the end of the season if he had stayed healthy, as he informed Sacramento he was not interested in returning there after his deal expired and reportedly asked for a trade before the regular season.
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Unfortunately for everybody involved (Gay would’ve been yet another veteran player the Kings could’ve sold off for draft picks and prospects last season) he ruptured his left Achilles tendon just 30 games into the regular season. Because he seemed to be not so fond of his time with Sacramento, Gay is likely leaving even though he could opt in to another year with the Kings.
As seen with Wesley Matthews and Chandler Parsons, teams have signed injured players before. Rudy Gay will likely be the next example of that. Could the Milwaukee Bucks be an interested party?
To find out, let’s look through Gay’s strengths, weaknesses, his potential salary (which is quite tricky), and his fit with Milwaukee’s current core.
Strengths
Rudy Gay gets buckets. That’s the biggest and most important thing to know about the 30-year-old forward. Across his 11-season NBA career, Gay has averaged 18.4 points per game, a strong total for anybody.
That number is actually weighed down by a 10-point per game rookie season with the Memphis Grizzlies. If you throw that year out, Gay has averaged 19.3 points per game. For teams who simply need someone to get buckets, Rudy Gay is a good option.
This past season, he looked as good as he ever has. Gay averaged 18.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.5 steals and 0.9 blocks per game. In addition to the impressive bulk stats, Gay shot 45.5 percent from the field and 37.2 percent from deep.
He’s been a consistently strong marksman, with a career three-point percentage of 37.2. Gay has bounce–or at least did before his injury–and used his height and athleticism to make plays on both ends of the floor. At 6’8″ with a 7’0″ wingspan, Rudy Gay is capable of really making an impact.
Weaknesses
Obviously the Achilles tear is the first and most important weakness for Gay right now. Although he can shoot, a lot of what makes Gay a formidable player is dependent on being such a gifted athlete.
He’s supposed to be healthy again by training camp, and a recent Instagram video (with a nice 2 Chainz song in the background) makes it look like he’s certainly getting there.
Still, teams will probably be extra suspicious when considering paying Gay because of the injury, even if he has fully recovered. Sometimes even if a player can play again, it will take time for them to get back to full form.
Gay’s full form is capable, but his healthy game does have it’s flaws. He gets all those points by shooting–a lot. Gay has never had a usage rate of less than 20 percent, and over the course of his career he’s averaged almost 25 percent, meaning he uses a quarter of his team’s possessions.
When he’s making shots that’s fine and good, but a lack of ball movement is typically bad for just about any modern offense. The Golden State Warriors took over the NBA through moving the ball, not letting their superstars ISO wildly.
Salary
This is a tough one to figure. On the one hand, Gay will be 31 when the 2017-18 NBA season starts, he’s coming off of an Achilles injury, and he’s been traded twice already in his career–and were it not for his injury, it’d probably be thrice.
Those qualifications do not leap out and make anybody think to offer a big money deal. The annual salary will be affected, certainly, but the length of potential deals might be an even bigger factor that’s changed because of the injury.
Signing a player to a bad deal that lasts two years isn’t fun for NBA teams, but it’s at least short-term, and often there’s a way to dump an expensive expiring contract, making it some other team’s problem. Inking a player to a huge four-year deal can cripple a franchise if done poorly enough.
Rudy Gay might get a big dollar amount, but he likely won’t get a lot of years. Something like two years for $20-something million would be the most I’d expect. Jeff Green got a one-year, $15 million deal last season–that might make sense here too, although it feels like an overpay.
Fit With Bucks
Rudy Gay’s fit with the Bucks is interesting. Milwaukee has injury problems too, with Jabari Parker not slated to return until later on in the 2017-18 NBA season. Gay would make for a pretty decent Jabari holdover until he can return healthy.
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Jabari will be a better player, if he isn’t already, but Gay does some of the same things and certainly fits in with team all-length. The first problem though, is he shoots so often. Bucks fans rightfully worry about any player who would take the ball out of Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s hands.
Gay actually used less possessions than Jabari did last season, though, although his were used less efficiently. The real problem is what happens once Jabari returns. Starting Jabari Parker and Rudy Gay next to each other doesn’t seem like a great idea, since they’d probably dribble all of the air out of the basketball.
Bringing Rudy Gay off of the bench would be interesting though, in sort of an Andre Iguodala role. He hasn’t been a bench player since the beginning of his career, and would likely need to take less money than he could possibly make to come to Milwaukee.
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Still, there are interesting possibilities to consider between the Milwaukee Bucks and Rudy Gay, and the two could unite during NBA free agency this season.