He’s not a future superstar, but Willie Reed might end up being a hidden gem in the 2017 NBA free agency class.
No NBA team can ever have too many skilled players. That’s what makes finding good deals in contracts signed during NBA free agency so important–getting a productive player at a discounted rate makes a huge difference down the line.
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Willie Reed may not be the most exciting player to hit free agency this summer, but he could end up being one of those players who, two years from now, everyone wonders how they signed such a cheap deal given what’s happened since.
He’s not going to be an All-Star or anything like that, but Reed can play, and who knows how important of a role he could find himself in next season. The 27-year-old center has played just two NBA seasons, one with the Brooklyn Nets and last year with the Miami Heat.
He’s got career averages of 5.1 points and 4.3 rebounds per game, but he made the Heat better by being on the floor all last season. There’s value in that. Is it enough value for the Milwaukee Bucks to take a look at Reed?
Let’s find out. Looking through his strengths, weaknesses, potential salary and his fit with the Bucks should give us an idea as to if Willie Reed will be a target for the team in free agency?
Strengths
The 6’10” Reed is a pretty typical center in today’s modern NBA. He can protect the rim, he doesn’t score a ton of points, and he can grab rebounds. Although his per game numbers are quiet, Reed averaged 13.1 points, 11.6 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per 36 minutes with the Heat.
Like a good center should, he also made most of the shots he took. Reed converted on 56.8 percent of his field goals, and he made 70 percent of his shots within three feet of the rim. When he gets the ball down low, it’s a bucket for Willie Reed.
In addition to bulk numbers, Reed made Miami better when he was on the floor last season. The Heat with Reed had a plus 2.6 net rating, fifth-best among Miami’s players. Their defensive rating with Reed plummeted to 101.8–only the Heat with Justise Winslow were stingier.
That’s not in a small sample size, either–Reed logged over 1,000 minutes as a member of the Heat last year. He didn’t get tons of chances to play bulk minutes in single games while backing up Hassan Whiteside, but Reed showed he could be productive in the minutes he did get.
Weaknesses
While Reed is an expert at converting within three feet, he’s not so great at anything else on offense. He shot under 40 percent from every other distance range, and with four attempted threes in two years it’s fair to say Willie Reed is not a long-lost splash cousin.
He’s also not that from the charity stripe. Although he did improve from his rookie year in Brooklyn, Reed still shot just 55.7 percent from the free throw line this season–that’s “up” from 54.5 in his rookie season.
Although his advanced defensive metrics actually improved, Reed blocked less shots this past season. Keeping up those numbers would’ve really made it difficult to get to the rim against the Heat, with Whiteside and Reed both swatting shots.
Reed’s true weakness might be that he’s good at what he does, but that skill-set is limited. That might be a backhanded compliment, but it’s true. He’s got the ability to convert shots around the rim, rebound and play strong defense down low, but he’s not got that extra tool to make him a starter.
Salary
Even though it seems like everybody got paid last season, I wouldn’t expect Willie Reed to grab a Timofey Mozgov $64 million, four-year contract this July. I’ve certainly been wrong before though. About that very deal, in fact.
Still, last summer’s nightmares have become teaching moments for many teams, and not that many franchises really need a center. Some of the teams who do, like the Golden State Warriors and the Toronto Raptors, if they dump Jonas Valanciunas, won’t have the money to give a big man a big contract.
As covered extensively here on site in the running up to Greg Monroe‘s player option decision and potential free agency, the center market is not dead, but it’s not thriving. That’s not great for Reed, who projects as a backup center at best on a decent team.
He’ll probably get more than minimum, but not a ton more. A Dewayne Dedmon type of contract–two years, $6 million–seems like a good guess for what Reed ends up getting. Although, again, a player is worth whatever they’re offered in NBA free agency.
Fit With Bucks
As with any big man linked to the Milwaukee Bucks, there are terms and conditions nearly as complicated as the ones that come with Apple products that apply to Willie Reed fitting in well in Milwaukee.
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One or more of Greg Monroe, Spencer Hawes, and John Henson needs to be gone for him to make sense. If the Bucks ends up with all three of those guys plus Thon Maker, the team has no need to add a traditional center.
Reed’s lack of a jumper isn’t ideal, especially since he’d be the least-stretchy of all of the Bucks centers. Thon and Hawes are obvious shooters, Monroe’s mid-range jumper is smooth, and Henson managed to knock down a healthy 44.5 percent of his shots from between three and ten feet, a range where Reed converted just 38.6 percent of his looks.
Willie Reed is a fine center, and if a hole opens up on Milwaukee’s depth chart he would be a capable backup. His lack of a shot from anywhere makes his fit tougher, though, so even if the price tag is nice, Reed’s fit on the Bucks doesn’t seem to be ideal.
Next: Free Agent Profile: Thabo Sefolosha
With Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s three-point shot still a work in progress, the Bucks front office has been smart to find ways to squeeze space into the offense. Reed doesn’t help to do that.