After three successful years at North Carolina, what will the NBA Draft have in store for Justin Jackson?
Who is Justin Jackson?
For confidence, there can’t be many better ways to enter the professional game than after three successful seasons at one of college basketball’s biggest programs concluded with you being a national champion and the reigning ACC Player of the Year.
That’s exactly the spot Justin Jackson finds himself in as he makes his final preparations for the NBA Draft too.
A solid contributor since he joined up with the Tar Heels as a freshman, Jackson has worked hard and gradually refined his game to the point where he can move to the pro ranks with some intrigue surrounding his potential, and the hardware to back up the work he has already put in.
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Jackson has exactly the kind of length and height that NBA teams now desire in their wing and forward players, and he’s learned how to make use of it too.
In fact, tracking Jackson’s game from when he arrived in college to now doesn’t just show a player who has improved, but one who looks to have made a very conscious effort to adjust in ways that will best maximize his impact in the NBA.
Jackson tested the draft waters after his sophomore season, and stands as a good example of a player who was able to take on board what he needed to change about his game, and come back to demonstrate that leap a year later.
At 22 years of age, Jackson is certainly older than many other first round prospects, but let’s take a look at his strengths, weaknesses, and more.
Strengths
Although Jackson doesn’t quite have all of the physical attributes you’d look for in a draft prospect, he has plenty that should still hold their own appeal.
Jackson measures in at 6’8″ tall with a 6’11” wingspan, has good quickness, and above average athleticism. The best way to describe Jackson is as being fluid. He looks in control getting out in front of his opponents on the break, and sliding across or chasing around screens to contest shots.
Jackson isn’t blisteringly fast, but he certainly isn’t a slouch, and knows how to combine his various physical gifts in a coherent fashion.
The shooting demonstrated by Jackson in his junior season would be a tremendous asset to any NBA team, as he showed a real competence in knocking down shots from both mid-range and beyond the three-point line. The question is whether that was just a blip on the radar, or a decided and sustainable improvement from his freshman and sophomore shooting struggles.
Finishing the year with percentages of 44.3 percent from the field and 37 percent from three-point range (on 7.1 attempts per game) is commendable, but what might be most important in trying to gauge Jackson’s longer term viability as a shooter is the range he has developed.
There are 45 percent college three-point shooters who come to the NBA and struggle with the extended three-point line, but Jackson is a player who frequently knocked down shots from way beyond the arc with UNC.
Sticking with Jackson’s offense, he’s a high-IQ player and a willing passer who will likely benefit from his mid-to-late first round status, rather than landing with a team more desperate for a talent who can take a leading role. Jackson’s game seems tailor-made to making a positive impact within the flow of a game and a team’s system.
Defensively, Jackson may not be the most versatile, but he shows excellent ability and desire to close out and contest shots, and will trouble opponents with his length.
Weaknesses
While it’s entirely possible Jackson’s shooting could fall off a cliff when he lands in the NBA, there’s another concern that could have much more of a far-reaching impact on various facets of his game.
Jackson has a very slight frame, making him look particularly lanky out on the court. Against the bigger and stronger athletes of the professional game, this could easily be exploited.
Weighing only 201lbs at the Draft Combine, Jackson could struggle to leverage many of his physical attributes due to a strength differential.
For example, a 6’8″ forward with a near seven-foot wingspan seems like the perfect switching, defensive weapon for the modern NBA, yet Jackson would easily be bullied and backed down into the post against power forwards, and would even give up 30-50 pounds to many of the league’s best small forwards.
There’s always a possibility of a player putting on muscle and bulking up with the help of NBA trainers and dieticians, but at 22 years of age with little progress in that department up until now, there’s a chance that Jackson may just be naturally on the skinny side.
Draft Express’ tracker of measurements over the years of Jackson attending camps, workouts and combines makes for interesting reading, showing Jackson now at the exact same weight he posted for USA Basketball way back in 2013.
On offense, this could seep into a driving game that is already unreliable due to Jackson’s shaky handle, and make for real struggles for the Houston native whenever he drives in to contact in the paint.
What the Experts Say
(As of 6/19/17)
DraftExpress (Jonathan Givony): 16th
ESPN (Chad Ford): 21st
The Ringer (Kevin O’Connor): 26th
Sporting News (Sam Vecenie): 16th
Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer doesn’t necessarily view Jackson as some kind of sleeper star, but he sees him as someone with a well-rounded game who should be more than capable of filling a role.
"“A jack-of-all-trades wing who can easily fill a complementary role for any team, though he must prove that his shooting progression is sustainable.”"
ESPN’s Chad Ford notes the obvious positives of what Jackson has to offer, but also highlights the deficiencies that limit his potential.
"“He’s getting looks in the late teens from teams thanks to his shooting and defensive potential, but his lack of elite athleticism and motor lower his ceiling pretty significantly.”"
Fit with the Bucks
Jackson would offer the Bucks another skilled and lengthy wing contributor, which depending on the options left on the board when it’s their time to pick on Thursday may be the best option left open to Milwaukee.
You can never have enough depth when it comes to two-way, low usage, role playing wings, and Jackson fits that bill.
With some of Milwaukee’s most talented players currently stationed between positions 2-4, the Bucks wouldn’t need to rely on Jackson to be their leading light, but could still have room for him to grow into a meaningful role.
For example, if the Bucks were to decide the price for Tony Snell is too high in free agency, Jackson would be a nice player to have in reserve with a chance to stake a claim for Snell’s spot starter/key bench wing role.
It’s also worth mentioning that the Bucks had a lot of success with taking an ACC Player of the Year 12 months ago, and as such, Jackson’s age is unlikely to deter them if they believe in his abilities.
Next: NBA Draft 2017 Prospect Watch: Jarrett Allen
Jackson could potentially be gone by the Bucks’ turn on draft night, but it’s likely to be a close run thing. With that, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if he was being unveiled with a Bucks jersey on Friday morning.