As Jabari Parker is set to enter restricted free agency, what impact will his future have on the Milwaukee Bucks’ other options now and in the future?
On the eve of NBA free agency opening for 2018, the Milwaukee Bucks face one of the most important personnel decisions they’ve faced in a long, long time.
It’s certainly the most important player decision they’ve made since the current iteration of the team started to form via the draft in 2013 and 2014, and it’s a decision that could be talked about for years to come in terms of how it may positively or negatively affect the franchise’s future.
Jabari Parker’s restricted free agency is obviously about Jabari Parker as a player. His ability and all of the question marks that swirl around him is the obvious place to start in considering the pros and cons of the decision, but it’s also about the options the Bucks may or may not be left with in the future depending on the direction they choose to take on Parker.
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Parker’s injury history makes the process all the more complicated. Not only do the Bucks have to make a call on what they see Parker being able to contribute and offer in the years to come, but they also have to weigh up the risk involved in investing in him and restricting their flexibility down the line.
What happens with Parker will likely dictate Milwaukee’s cap situation for years to come, and the difference between keeping him and letting him walk may eventually turn out to be the difference between committing to the current core or looking to shake things up and upgrade in future.
More than just a single decision, Parker’s free agency will determine what the Bucks can and will do in 2019 free agency and beyond. So, let’s take a closer look at the variety of ways Parker’s future can define Milwaukee’s options in the present and the future.
The path to future cap space
In this year’s free agency, the Bucks will not have the flexibility to add a top tier, expensive free agent, no matter what they do with Jabari. They could open up some space if they were able to find a trade partner willing to take on the costly contracts of John Henson and Matthew Dellavedova, but that will be tough this summer while both still have two years remaining on those deals.
In the summer of 2019, not only will it be more realistic for the Bucks to be able to trade those expensive contracts as expirings, but they’ll have some significant free agents of their own too. Even if the Bucks are looking to re-sign some or all of those, they’ll at least have the luxury of entering free agency with a cap flexibility they haven’t seen in years.
Khris Middleton will most likely opt out of his final contract year as he definitely deserves more than the $13 million per year owed to him. Eric Bledsoe and Malcolm Brogdon would also join him on the open market, unless the Bucks come to terms on early extensions with any of the three this summer.
While looking at the Bucks’ cap sheet for next summer, keep in mind that Middleton and Bledsoe have a cap hold which is 150 percent of their contract, while Brogdon’s cap hold is about $2 million. The salary cap in 2019 free agency is currently projected to be approximately $108 million.
If Parker returns on a deal of any kind, the Bucks’ options for the future will be more limited in 2019 and beyond, while a significant multi-year deal could leave Milwaukee financially restricted for years to come.
What happens if the Bucks let Jabari walk?
If the Bucks let Parker leave for a new team, it may suggest a lack of faith in his health, continuing concerns over fit, or simply a price they’re unwilling to stretch to at this point.
The primary motivation to do that would be to create as much cap space as possible, in order to target better alternatives via trade or free agency in future. Heading into next summer, if the Bucks could find a way to offload two of Dellavedova, Henson and Tony Snell, they’d be able to get under the salary cap. That would leave in the region of $13-15 million of cap space before even considering renouncing Middleton or Bledsoe.
Middleton’s status within the organization would make it seem like he’s part of the long-term plans in Milwaukee, but renouncing Bledsoe could open up room for a high profile free agency addition (Kemba Walker, maybe?), while still having the freedom to go over the cap to re-sign Middleton using his rights.
Re-signing Middleton and Brogdon would then put the Bucks into the luxury tax, while adding another role player via the taxpayer’s mid-level exception could put them approximately $20 million into the tax. Whether ownership would be willing to pay that sizable bill or whether the Bucks could add the caliber of players who’d make doing so worthwhile remains to be seen, but it may be the quickest path to genuine contention for Milwaukee.
Ultimately, this road could land the Bucks a potential star if they don’t believe Bledsoe and Parker can live up to that billing or make for the right fit for the team. It would be a huge gamble, though, and there is no guarantee the Bucks can land a star even if they do take this road.
If the Bucks re-sign Jabari, what happens then?
Keeping Parker quickly puts the squeeze on the Bucks financially, but just as significantly, it reduces their options in terms of adding new players to their roster. Re-signing Parker to even a moderate deal would realistically rid the Bucks of the chance to get under the salary cap and become free agent players in the year to come.
As a result, the best route to maximizing the talent on the roster in that scenario would likely involve trusting in and re-signing many players already on the team, and facing a significant luxury tax bill to do so.
This road keeps the current core together but even with somewhat modest projections could put the Bucks over $20 million into the luxury tax as soon as next season. With that estimate being somewhat optimistic, they might still have to dump at least one of Henson or Dellavedova to reduce that bill.
Choosing this route would be a bet on internal development under coach Mike Budenholzer, a bet on Parker staying healthy and figuring out his on-court struggles, and maybe also a bet on Jon Horst being able to make a good trade using those future contracts down the line.
What if Jabari takes the qualifying offer?
If Parker signs the qualifying offer, the Bucks’ limited options for this summer would become even more restricted. Looking toward 2019, though, the Bucks’ situation would be no different to Parker leaving for another team and coming off the books next summer.
Signing the qualifying offer would see Parker play out the final season of his rookie contract in Milwaukee before hitting free agency as an unrestricted free agent next summer.
As a result, the Bucks would no longer have any control over Parker’s long-term destination, and he would be free to field offers from any potential suitors. It doesn’t mean the Bucks still couldn’t be the team to re-sign him on his next deal, but it would become very unlikely.
It’s very rare for players to sign a qualifying offer, and if it comes to that, it generally signals their willingness to make sure they’re playing for a new team in the following season. If Parker holds any resentment toward the Bucks for not coming to terms on an extension last summer, it would only be much worse if he feels they didn’t offer him an acceptable deal this time around.
With Parker’s health issues, this would be a major risk as he’d have a full year where he’d need to stay healthy to prove himself and earn his next contract, yet if it comes to this being his best option, his injury history will likely already have deterred teams from trying to sign him this year.
What if Jabari gets a huge offer sheet from another team?
It seems unlikely that this will happen as Parker’s two ACL injuries alone should be enough to scare teams off making a commitment that ties up both significant money and multiple years.
This is part of the reason why Parker may even end up considering the qualifying offer. If he can prove he can stay healthy for a year, he could significantly increase his value and hit the open market in the more cash-rich 2019 free agency.
If Parker does end up with a particularly rich offer sheet, though, the Bucks should let him walk. A sign and trade could certainly be explored, but at a really high price, the chance of the Bucks getting value of any kind back via that route would probably become less likely.
The decision the Bucks make with Parker, and then the options and level of success they have in 2019 free agency will likely determine the fate of this current roster.
Next: Win in 6 Podcast #229: Preparing for Jabari Parker’s free agency
Parker’s free agency represents one of the Bucks’ biggest decisions to date, and one that could prove decisive years down the line in the futures of Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Bucks need to get this one right, but they’ll also need to make the right decisions to follow it up too.