The Milwaukee Bucks completed two days worth of trade dealings on Thursday, but did they make the right move in acquiring Nikola Mirotic?
If there’s one big takeaway from how general manager Jon Horst and his front office have operated at the trade deadline, it’s that the Milwaukee Bucks are not messing around.
In the face of major moves from rivals in recent days, the Bucks showed no intentions of relinquishing their hold on the Eastern Conference’s top spot.
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What originally started as a pretty perfunctory Thon Maker for Stanley Johnson trade on Wednesday, was finalized on Thursday as a three-team deal that brings Nikola Mirotic to Milwaukee.
As my colleague Jordan Treske outlined, the Bucks sent Jason Smith to the Pelicans along with four second round picks, offloaded Thon Maker to Detroit, while the Pistons’ Stanley Johnson also landed in New Orleans.
In shedding a player in their net returns, the Bucks also opened up a valuable roster spot heading into a particularly strong buyout market. In other words, not only did the Bucks add Mirotic, but they now have an opportunity to further upgrade their depth.
Considering Maker and Smith were both out of the rotation, that’s a major step forward for what was already the league’s best team in terms of record.
Does all of this equate to a great decision from the Bucks’ front office, though? Let’s take a much closer look at the elements of the deal to find out.
What the Bucks traded for
In Mirotic, Milwaukee has landed one of the NBA’s best shooting big men. Not only that, but the Bucks have acquired the soon-to-be 28-year-old in the midst of a career-year.
A highly touted player prior to arriving in the NBA due to his success in Europe with Real Madrid, Mirotic has established himself as a highly skilled role player in the world’s best basketball league in the years since.
This season, Mirotic is averaging 16.7 points, 8.3 rebounds and 1.0 assists, while shooting 36.8 percent from deep on 7.2 three-point attempts per contest. In many ways, that willingness and accuracy to let fly from deep unlocked various options and driving lanes for New Orleans’ other players since he arrived in the Big Easy last season.
As a frontcourt partner alongside one of the NBA’s most freakishly gifted players (Anthony Davis), Mirotic’s size helped to buoy the Pelicans’ offense.
Of course, if any of that sounds familiar, it’s because it should. Mirotic offered the Pelicans a lot of what Brook Lopez has been able to provide the Bucks with this season. As a result, Mirotic should make for both a seamless replacement for Lopez, as well as an option that provides a similar skill-set with an added sense of versatility.
Writing for the New Orleans Advocate last month, Scott Kushner described Mirotic in a fashion equally befitting of Lopez:
"” It’s not just hitting 3-pointers, but the confidence he has to shoot them, makes him such a weapon on a team light on traditional sharpshooters and long on creative interior scorers.”"
Continuing on that front, Kushner had other comments that draw to mind the influence the slow-moving Lopez has had on Milwaukee’s style of play this year:
"“While the Pelicans’ system is a fast-pace attack designed to feast in the paint, the not-so-swift, deep-shooting Mirotic is particularly valuable in it.”"
In other words, the first thing Mirotic will offer the Bucks is a big man capable of replicating many of the elements that have made Lopez so crucial to Milwaukee’s style of play.
Beyond that, though, Mirotic should also create real excitement in terms of how his differences with Lopez can boost the Bucks. Mirotic can be added to the mix of Giannis Antetokounmpo, D.J. Wilson and Ersan Ilyasova, as a forward capable of manning the middle in a small-ball lineup.
Realistically, Mirotic may never play the 5 spot for the Bucks, particularly when paired with Antetokounmpo, but his presence with any of those players will only further increase Milwaukee’s flexibility and ability to play fluidly in-game.
Budenholzer has also shown a penchant for bigger lineups, and with a matchup with the Raptors now including the prospect of facing a frontcourt of Kawhi Leonard – Serge Ibaka – Marc Gasol, Mirotic’s shooting could just as easily see him paired with Antetokounmpo and Lopez in Milwaukee’s own jumbo lineups.
Mirotic has a reputation as a sub-par defender, yet it’s even fair to argue that’s undeserved at this point. Writing for the Washington Post, Justin Willard did exactly that late last season, noting:
"“He has quick hands, generating a lot of steals for a power forward (1.6 per 100 possessions for his career), and he’s an excellent defensive rebounder, too, ranking 29th out of 275 players with at least 1,000 minutes played in percentage of defensive boards grabbed. He’s good in most team schemes, and he has shown a lot of skill in defending the pick and roll.”"
In short, Mirotic is incredibly skilled, an ideal fit for Milwaukee’s roster and style of play, and only serves to further enhance the Bucks’ existing versatility heading into the closing stretch of the season.
What the Bucks traded away
In terms of the personnel elements of this deal, the Bucks essentially traded Maker and Smith for Nikola Mirotic. Depending on how you pick apart the process of this trade, you could substitute Maker for Stanley Johnson in that statement either.
Regardless, if you’re looking for a detailed exploration of either Maker or Johnson’s game, and what it means for the Bucks to make this decision, you can take a look at the piece I wrote in the same style on Wednesday when it appeared as if those two players were simply swapping places.
As for Jason Smith, with no disrespect intended to someone who is by all accounts a great person and valuable locker room presence, the Bucks essentially added filler to the deal. Smith arrived in Milwaukee as salary filler in December, he leaves as salary filler in February, and he played a total of 40 minutes of garbage time basketball in between.
To boil it down, the most significant assets parted with in Thursday’s trade were the four second round picks reportedly re-routed to New Orleans. I use the term re-routed because, for the most part that is what’s going to happen.
The Bucks will send two Wizards second rounders that were acquired this year in taking on Jason Smith and Jodie Meeks‘ deals to offer cap relief to Washington.
The Bucks will also send a top-55 protected pick from Denver, which was acquired in exchange for Roy Hibbert in another deal built primarily around cap machinations playing out, and was never expected to convey prior to the Nuggets’ breakout success this season.
The only one of Milwaukee’s own second rounders set for New Orleans is their selection in the 2020 draft.
In abstract terms, four second rounders sounds like a relatively hefty price, and certainly on the receiving end of the deal it will make for an excellent haul for the Pelicans. But the context of how those picks were acquired cannot be overlooked in determining the price Milwaukee paid out.
The two Wizards’ picks, in particular, were acquired as a byproduct of shrewd transactions and a willingness to stock-pile picks through minor facilitation. Meeks never played a game for the Bucks before being waived, while Smith was a peripheral figure. Still, the understanding of what those picks can amount to cumulatively requires a degree of foresight, and it’s only with that did Horst gradually acquire the assets required to make such a crucial deal.
The cost for Milwaukee is not as steep as it may appear. And let’s face it, if there’s a time to use such assets, it’s in bolstering a team with the NBA’s best record and a legitimate chance of contention. A Finals appearance could hold weight in convincing Giannis Antetokounmpo to remain long-term, or in negotiating with free agents this summer. The prospect of what future second round picks could be would undoubtedly fail to sway anyone’s thinking.
At this point, it is worth pointing out that John Wall‘s ruptured achilles and the Wizards’ decision to trade Otto Porter Jr. has significantly increased the likely value of those second round picks in recent days. Still, the Bucks’ time could well be now, and with the uncertainty that free agency provides with four of their starters, this is a risk that had to be taken.
Trade motivation
Considering the 76ers and Raptors’ acquisitions of Tobias Harris and Marc Gasol respectively, there can be no doubting a major motivating factor in this deal was the Bucks’ desire to consolidate their already strong position at the top of the Eastern Conference.
Considering the assets Horst had to work with, what’s most impressive about the scope of this deal is that it holds the potential to be the most impactful of those three.
A Bucks’ team that was by no means devoid of flexibility in terms of spacing and small-ball options, hasn’t just added another player capable of boosting those options further, but one of the most skilled players of that mold generally.
If the questions about the Bucks’ ability to keep Brook Lopez on the floor in playoff matchups prove to be of merit — and it should be said, there has been little to suggest they are valid so far — then they can turn to a smaller, more versatile player who is similarly experienced and talented.
Outside of that, Mirotic can fit into a wide range of lineups with the Bucks, both big and small. Milwaukee now has more options than ever to improve spacing around relative non-shooters such as Antetokounmpo and Eric Bledsoe. They also now have another excellent rebounder, and an underrated playmaker for his position.
The Bucks were already a really good team, but the path to great is only more visible following this deal. If Mike Budenholzer shortens his rotation for the playoffs, he can take his pick from experienced veterans such as Mirotic, Ilyasova, George Hill, and Tony Snell, or he can turn to highly promising youngsters such as Wilson and Sterling Brown. This doesn’t even include whoever the Bucks decide to snap up on the buyout market.
As some of their rivals scramble around for depth, the Bucks’ wealth of options appear increasingly absurd.
Overall trade grade
When I was tasked with grading a Bucks’ trade 24 hours ago, my overwhelming feeling was apathy. Moving Thon Maker for Stanley Johnson was fine. Adding a little bit more cap space for the summer was better than that.
Still, with the benefit of knowing what we all know now, the Bucks have had an exceptional trade deadline. More specifically, Horst and the Bucks’ front office have excelled with their trades throughout this season, essentially both upgrading this year’s roster and improving their flexibility for one of the franchise’s most important free agency periods at every single step.
The deal isn’t completely without risk. Mirotic has suffered with injuries on-and-off this season, and the Wizards’ picks really may end up resembling something much closer to two first round picks. Still, the Bucks have reached a juncture where they can no longer rest as the risk-averse franchise that has been mired in mediocrity since the end of the 1980s.
Milwaukee has spent so much time watching other teams using small trades along the margins to ultimately pay off in a larger win down the road, that there should be great satisfaction in the origins of the picks attached in this deal.
Likewise, the record tells us that the Bucks are currently the best team in the NBA. That is an opportunity that must be seized. It’s the time to take a risk, as the point of all of this is supposed to be winning a championship. After decades of misery, the Bucks couldn’t afford to be coy now and in the next few seasons, only to later reflect that they didn’t do all they could have done.
Mirotic isn’t a guarantee of anything in terms of results, but most importantly of all, he’s evidence that the Bucks understand their position and are now playing to win.
Grade: A
What are your thoughts on the deal? Let us know in the comments below.