In a surprising move, the Milwaukee Bucks dealt Malcolm Brogdon to the Indiana Pacers via sign-and-trade. How does the deal grade for Milwaukee, though?
It was clear in the run-up to free agency that the Milwaukee Bucks were going to face considerable competition if they wanted to hold on to Malcolm Brogdon. Still, I’m not sure anyone could have foreseen the situation that ultimately played out on Sunday evening.
Rather than a long, drawn out process involving an offer sheet waiting game and the Bucks waiting and deciding whether to match, the Brogdon band-aid was effectively pulled off when everyone was distracted by the flurry of free agency happenings elsewhere.
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The end result: Malcolm Brogdon agreed to a four-year, $85 million contract with the Indiana Pacers, and will be signed and traded from the Bucks once the moratorium passes later in the week.
Just like that, the former Rookie of the Year, recently minted member of the 50-40-90 club, and key cog of Milwaukee’s 60-win season will be plying his trade with a divisional rival and a legitimate threat in the latter stages of theEastern Conference playoffs.
How did the Bucks and Brogdon reach this point, and what are the considerations that likely went into Milwaukee’s decision to let him leave?
There’s a lot to unpack, so without further ado, let’s dive deep into all of it before offering up a final grade for the deal.
What the Bucks traded for
In exchange for not standing in Indiana’s way of a deal with Brogdon, not matching an offer sheet and, perhaps most importantly for the Pacers, allowing a deal to be completed early before other teams could get involved, Milwaukee got a chance to replenish their draft stocks somewhat.
The exact details on what years the picks the Pacers are sending will convey, and whether there are any protections on them, remains unclear as of this time of writing, but Milwaukee’s haul amounts to a first round pick and two second rounders in some capacity.
Milwaukee will almost certainly send its first round pick to Phoenix next year completing their obligations from the Eric Bledsoe trade, while their second round pick is headed for New Orleans. The Bucks’ second rounder was set for Indiana in 2021, although it would be no surprise if they have re-obtained the rights to that selection in this deal. Additionally, Milwaukee’s 2022 first round pick is set for Cleveland, having been included in the John Henson and Matthew Dellavedova salary dump back in December.
Facing a potentially brutal cap squeeze for the foreseeable future, draft picks are incredibly valuable to the Bucks. Cheap, cost-controlled assets are hard to come by in the NBA, and the draft represents one of the few somewhat realistic areas where the Bucks could potentially add another star-caliber talent in the coming years, although it would still involve somehow hitting the jackpot with a non-lottery pick.
Of course, the question remains as to what the picks will be used for. This return could look great in time if the Bucks land on the next Brogdon using one of the draft picks, but it’s arguably more likely that they could just become the next tool to utilize in salary dumps if Sterling Brown‘s free agency becomes costly next year, or dodging the tax becomes a longer running concern with Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s supermax set to be on the table next summer.
Getting three picks back for a player they weren’t willing to pay this particular deal to is a real positive, but in the end it’s what you do with the picks that matters most of all.
What the Bucks traded away
The combined influence of Jon Horst as general manager and Mike Budenholzer as head coach has led to the Bucks’ player recruitment mantra becoming “pass, dribble, shoot”. It was highlighted as a priority in free agency last summer, offered up as the reason for why Donte DiVincenzo was drafted 17th overall, and likely will continue to inform much of what Milwaukee does.
On that front, no player on Milwaukee’s roster was better than Brogdon at combining those three elements at a really high level. And now he’s gone.
I’d argue that Brogdon was the Bucks’ second best player in the Conference Finals. The 26-year-old offered up consistent and varied offense in spite of being covered by All-Defensive caliber Raptors such as Danny Green, Kyle Lowry and Kawhi Leonard, while he also performed admirably when tasked with slowing down Leonard on the opposite end of the floor. Considering he was just back from injury, that spoke volumes to just how good Brogdon has become.
Only nine players in the history of the NBA have completed a 50-40-90 season, and Brogdon joined that historic club last season with his sharpshooting exploits. For a team with two relative non-shooters in the starting lineup, the value of that gravity should not be overlooked in terms of spacing. Sure, Brook Lopez letting fly from 25-30 feet more obviously stretches the floor, but Brogdon was also a key cog of the offensive revolution the Bucks enjoyed last season.
Aside from his shooting, Brogdon proved himself to be a highly accomplished ball-handler and playmaker. In an ideal world, his NBA position would never be point guard, but his ability to pick up that share of responsibilities as an auxiliary option is invaluable. Not only did that allow Brogdon to create in the starting lineup and take pressure off the likes of Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, but it also led to the second unit thriving with Brogdon acting as that lineup’s alpha.
Also not to be lost in any appraisal of what Brogdon offered the Bucks is his incredible knack for getting to the rim and scoring. Brogdon is highly skilled when it comes to freezing his defender, and then driving by them to the rim. Even better, when he gets to the basket, he’s a highly efficient and skilled finisher who has mastered the art of reverse layups that cut off the shot blocker. That skill was important for Milwaukee when plays broke down and they simply needed a bucket, and in the playoffs there were certainly plenty of examples to fit that bill.
Beyond all of that, Brogdon is a natural leader, an incredibly well-liked teammate, and one of the smartest players in the NBA both on and off the court.
Even with a blank check, the Bucks would find it difficult to find a natural replacement for the varied contributions he can offer, which in the end likely dictated the lengths to which the Pacers were prepared to go to ensure they landed him.
Trade motivation
Before the sign and trade becomes official and Brogdon officially joins the Pacers following the moratorium, it’s tough to pinpoint one particular reason why the Bucks opted to let the situation play out like this.
Perhaps the team’s owners or Horst will shed light on it at a future date, but Horst in particular has a knack for remaining coy while seeming like he’s saying quite a lot.
In all likelihood, the Bucks’ motivations for not retaining Brogdon, and ultimately agreeing to trade him, were manifold.
I’d guess their gut feeling was that Brogdon’s contract didn’t represent value at that price point, and with that a whole host of wider considerations came into play. Is this the deal and the player they wanted to go deep into the tax for? How confident are they really in Brogdon’s health holding up? Could the Bucks’ success in his absence point to a reduced need to retain Brogdon?
It’s not that an argument couldn’t be made for all of those things from an organizational perspective that would make sense, but there’s also a simpler yet larger point that can be missed while getting lost in the reeds of those minutiae.
The Bucks’ window to win a championship is right now. Winning 60 games and holding a 2-0 lead over the eventual champions in the Conference Finals told us that. The wide array of changes to rosters around the NBA, injuries to elite players for next season, and the re-tooling of many of Milwaukee’s rivals further confirms it. Next year may well be the best chance this Bucks team ever has to win a championship, and considering Antetokounmpo’s long-term future may well be tied to the upcoming season presenting a suitably convincing case for him to sign the supermax, the sense of urgency should be palpable around the organization.
Everything that’s been reported surrounding Brogdon’s foot since he entered the NBA has pointed to a major red flag, and any recent rumblings I’ve heard from around the Bucks have made it clear that concern is very much a pressing one when it comes to projecting his future.
In other words, re-signing him would have been a major risk. I just hope the Bucks gave adequate thought to how risky it also was to let Brogdon leave.
With cap space tied up for the foreseeable future with Middleton, Brook Lopez and George Hill joining Eric Bledsoe on long-term deals, and the hope being that Antetokounmpo will join them on one of the richest contracts in NBA history next summer, landing a high profile free agent won’t be a consideration any time soon.
Perhaps the Bucks could work an upgrade via trade at some point, but that would undoubtedly involve combining picks and multiple of the team’s other core players.
That leaves us at a point where it seems totally plausible that, over the next five years or so, the Bucks’ roster will never be able to return to the talent level at every position they boasted last year. With that in mind, and everything that was achieved last season, willingly taking a step back sure is a choice.
Perhaps health will prove a major stumbling block for Brogdon in Indiana and the contract will look very ugly by its conclusion. For the Bucks, though, even if he was only fully healthy for 2019-20, there’s a case to be made that incredible cost would still have been one worth paying.
With Brogdon, the Bucks may well have been the championship frontrunners. Delivering on that opportunity could also have secured Antetokounmpo’s future for another five years through the prime of his career.
Are they equally as well-equipped to win now with Sterling Brown, Donte DiVincenzo or Pat Connaughton stepping up to take over his minutes? I think even the most optimistic Milwaukee Bucks fan would have to admit they’re almost certainly not.
Overall trade grade
In the end, the decision to move on from Brogdon makes for a play with the long view in mind.
Time could prove it to be an incredibly wise move that leads to a more sustainable, long-term period of Bucks’ contention. Alternatively, the failure to recognize the need for a more immediate focus to the shape of the team could mean the team’s future may end up much bleaker a couple of years from now.
Without question, this is the biggest and boldest risk the Bucks have taken in terms of positioning themselves to be Antetokounmpo’s desired long-term home. It sows seeds of doubt that may come back to haunt the Bucks if they fall short of their targets between now and when he could potentially hit free agency in 2021.
From now on, there’ll always be an element of questioning whether Brogdon could have made the difference in any postseason failures.
Some element of full judgement needs to be reserved until the Bucks conclude all of their dealings this summer. Maybe they manage to convince a proven starting caliber veteran such as Wesley Matthews to sign on at the minimum, or perhaps a surprise trade could yet come to fruition.
But based on the current state of play, the Bucks got worse on Sunday, and their ceiling certainly dropped considerably lower.
Credit is due for recouping some value in terms of taking back three picks from the Pacers, and in many ways that may be a saving grace for a move that may otherwise prove to be an ill-timed reluctance to go all in. Certainly from my perspective, it’s the only redemptive factor.
If this team, and Malcolm Brogdon, didn’t combine to provide the recipe for when the Bucks would go all in on, take on bigger risks, and wade into the luxury tax, I’m not sure what ever will. The path to acquiring equivalent talent without giving another key piece up doesn’t currently exist. The tax remains an inevitability for the Bucks if Antetokounmpo agrees to sign an extension, but it’s tough to imagine those moments arriving with a roster of greater talent and potential than last season’s squad.
Grade: C
Stick with us at Behind the Buck Pass for more analysis of the deal, and a wider look back at Brogdon’s time with the Bucks over the next few days.