The Milwaukee Bucks have continuously been linked to veteran guard Chris Paul, but is their reported unwillingness to make a move for Paul justified?
It’s now been a month since the Milwaukee Bucks’ 2019-20 season came a screeching halt.
In the month since the Bucks fell to the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, many discussions have been had in regards to how the Bucks can reload for a more lasting playoff run in the wake of their greatest playoff disappointment of recent memory.
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And a great majority of the discussions has revolved around how the Bucks can go about acquiring future Hall of Famer Chris Paul, who was quickly linked to the Bucks by Marc Stein of the New York Times after the end of the Bucks’ season.
While that is the perception of rival executives and NBA teams, it’s easy to see why the two parties would be linked with one another.
In one corner, you have a point guard, albeit aging, who still showed this season that he’s capable of playing high-level basketball and could fortify and lift a championship-caliber core for a contender. In the other corner, you have a Bucks team whose shot creation issues and generating consistent offense was exposed yet again in the playoffs.
My colleague and co-site expert Dalton Sell recently did an excellent job detailing all of the reasons for why swinging a Paul deal would fit in line with what the Bucks need in the face of their latest playoff failure.
Now I’m here to take the other side of the debate, which reportedly doesn’t seem to be much of a debate in the eyes of the Bucks’ front office. The Athletic’s Sam Amick and Eric Nehm ($$) were the first to report last month that the Bucks are likely to avoid actively exploring a Paul trade.
With that being a jumping off point, let’s dive into the three biggest issues that exist in trying to construct a Paul deal and why the Bucks are reportedly are against making such a blockbuster move.
Milwaukee Bucks: 3 biggest hurdles for making a Chris Paul trade – The financial impact
To kick this all off, let’s dive into the most significant hurdle in the Bucks trying to build a package for Paul.
Simply trying to absorb Paul’s $41.3 million salary for next season requires the Bucks to send out any and all expendable salary they have on their books. That applies to guaranteeing the $7 million Ersan Ilyasova is owed for next season as well as Robin Lopez’s expiring $5 million salary, provided he picks up his player option for next season.
A trade package like Eric Bledsoe, George Hill, Ilyasova, Lopez and D.J. Wilson would theoretically send the Bucks over the line for a deal. That is far from a wholly appetizing offer from Oklahoma City’s perspective, though, and it goes without saying that sending draft compensation and swapping filler with Donte DiVincenzo would whet their appetite in that regard.
Even so, gutting the Bucks’ roster down to the bone under this scenario would leave them with as many as 11 roster spots to fill. On top of that, keeping a core of Antetokounmpo, Paul, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez and their combined salary of $114.6 million would near the projected cap projection of $115 million that ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported back in January.
Of course, that surfaced in a pre-coronavirus pandemic world, but the point of limited flexibility and resources that will be available to the Bucks this offseason still remains.
Even as Bucks ownership has pledged to their leading star that they will go into the luxury tax next season, the question of how much they will go into the tax will surely be tested under any scenario that they would trade for Paul.
Milwaukee Bucks: 3 biggest hurdles for making a Chris Paul trade – Injury red flags
As much as the financials are one big issue that the Bucks would have to work around, there are other concerns to consider when taking a player of Paul’s stature.
Without a doubt, Paul’s greatness and longevity isn’t to be trifled with, but at 35 years old, he carries plenty of miles on his legs. That’s 39,619 NBA minutes that Paul has under his belt to be exact, both regular season and playoffs combined.
And over the course of accumulating those heavy minutes, Paul has often broken down at the most inopportune times like the playoffs after suffering muscle injuries such as hamstring pulls, etc. One can only look think back to Paul missing the final two games of the 2018 Western Conference Finals against the Golden State Warriors that arguably swung that series from being an upset, among other examples.
Of course, Paul’s durability is something that any team, much less the Bucks, would have to be mindful of if the veteran guard is moved this offseason. Not overextending Paul and carefully distributing his minutes over the course of a regular season and a playoff run will have to be a high priority for any team, especially for a contender like the Bucks that needs someone of Paul’s skills and talent in the postseason.
With the margin for error is already thin as it is for the Bucks to begin with, a lot would ride on Paul simply being available at the biggest points in their season if he were to come to Milwaukee. His history tells us that his body can betray him under those moments.
Milwaukee Bucks: 3 biggest hurdles for making a Chris Paul trade – Personality conflict?
This is certainly the most subjective point to cover, but it’s reportedly one that the Bucks have given thought to as a reason why they wouldn’t pursue a Paul deal this offseason.
Whether it was over his time with the Clippers, otherwise known as the “Lob City” era of the organization, or his relationship with Houston Rockets star James Harden, personality conflicts have followed Paul over his NBA career. That certainly comes with the territory of having gone through the many tough, heartbreaking playoff defeats that have followed Paul over his 15 years in the league.
There’s no question that Paul adheres to adage of winning at all costs, but is it possible that the Bucks are more afraid of severely altering their hierarchy as its currently set up?
That’s a pertinent question, given that Antetokounmpo recorded the seventh-highest usage percentage in NBA history, per Basketball-Reference.com. Add in Khris Middleton growing into his own as a primary hub for the Bucks’ offense and their established system has reaped the rewards for them individually and throughout the regular season. Well, that was the case until the playoffs came around.
By that same logic, though, Paul isn’t as ball-dominant of a player as he’s projected, with his career 23.9 usage percentage.
In many ways, the strengths that Paul brings to the table, between his skills on the ball and the way he deliberately organizes a team’s offense, would bring a much-needed dynamic to the Bucks’ run-and-gun offense that largely masks their shot creation issues within their backcourt during the postseason specifically.
Should all of that be enough to dissuade the Bucks from exploring a deal for a future Hall of Famer in Paul? Bucks fans would collectively say it shouldn’t, but the organization feels another way about it and adds to the growing unlikeliness of seeing Paul in a Bucks uniform next season.