One month into his 2020-21 season, Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo has been searching for consistency.
The two-time MVP has played anything but his MVP-like standard over an extended period of time so far this season. However, that likely wouldn’t be able to gleam that from his stat line he’s averaging at 27 points on .538/.309/.583 shooting, 10.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.1 blocks over his 15 appearances.
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Despite that gaudy production that follows someone of Antetokounmpo’s caliber even on an off night like the one he had in Milwaukee’s 113-106 defeat to the Los Angeles Lakers, the 26-year-old has played below expectations.
Whatever the reasons are that have plagued Antetokounmpo into this curious start is unknown, but there are some numbers to back up why the eight-year forward has struggled to hit his dominant marks on a nightly basis.
So without further ado, let’s dive into some of the reasons that have contributed to Giannis Antetokounmpo’s uncharacteristic start to the 2020-21 season.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is getting to the rim less often
There are very few other players in the NBA whose game is predicated on getting to the basket at the staggering volume that Antetokounmpo showed over his back-to-back MVP seasons.
Over the last two seasons, no player attempted more shots in the restricted area than Antetokounmpo and putting that kind of pressure at the rim surely contributed to why he scored a combined 2,360 paint points over that span.
To that point, it’s perhaps very concerning to see Antetokounmpo’s volume of attempts at the basket slide precipitously as much as it has to start this season. Per pbpstats.com, 48.8 percent of Antetokounmpo’s total shots this season have come at the rim, which currently stands as the lowest mark of his eight-year career.
Of course, driving lanes haven’t been as clear are wide-open as they have been in years past while Antetokounmpo has played under Budenholzer.
The details that The Athletic’s Eric Nehm ($$) recently detailed in regards to the Bucks’ offense has certainly cluttered some of the space that would have normally been provided a runway for Antetokounmpo to get to the basket. The overall benefit, though, the Bucks’ offense changing schematically has led to them having the second-highest offensive rating in the league, per NBA.com/stats.
While that may be so, the collective physical toll it takes for Antetokounmpo to barrel down the paint in front of a crowd of defenders can’t be ignored here. The following quote from Antetokounmpo made to Jim Owczarski of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel after the Bucks’ first of three wins over the Detroit Pistons this season has stuck with me as the year has gone on:
"“It’s definitely not easy – it might look easy but it’s not,” Antetokounmpo said of his work around the basket. “Actually, as the game went on they were showing more bodies but I wasn’t surprised. Like the previous games, they watched tape, they scout us (and) at the start of the game they come ready to play us and they know that the previous games I’ve been finding my teammates for a lot of threes, finding the shooters. So, come to this game probably it was like ‘Don’t let him pick us apart with the passing.’ So, that’s why there was a lot of space.”"
There’s no way of knowing the heavy legs that Antetokounmpo might or might not feel after each successive drive to the paint he has. We do know, though, that he’s getting to the paint and the basket less than he ever has and there’s no shortage of reasons why.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is shooting more with mixed results
If Antetokounmpo is getting to the basket less often, that reflexively means he’s shooting more away from the paint and beyond.
The push to make Antetokounmpo more of a shooting threat has long followed him since former head coach Jason Kidd instructed a young Greek superstar to eschew such looks from his shot profile. As opposing defenses have grown more comfortable sagging off of the two-time MVP in order to pack the paint against him, Antetokounmpo has put in plenty of hours trying to turn his jump shot into a viable part of his game.
This, in turn, has led to a self-fulfilling prophecy, especially as Antetokounmpo has continued to pull up more looks off the dribble from both mid-range and 3-point range.
This season, Antetokounmpo is shooting 30.9 percent on his 69 3-point attempts and is 14-for-37 on mid-range looks (37.8 percent). More worrisome, Antetokounmpo’s 45.1 effective field goal percentage on his 92 pull-up attempts (per Second Spectrum) is the ninth-worst mark of high-volume pull up shooters around the league.
It’s not even in these areas where Antetokounmpo’s shooting deficiencies shine the brightest as he’s slipped considerably when making his way to the free throw line so far.
Despite all these concerns and poor marks, Antetokounmpo is still posting a 59.4 true shooting percentage on the season, which is well below the marks he logged in his MVP seasons (64.4 percent in 2018-19, 61.3 percent in 2019-20). That certainly speaks to his potent finishing around the basket as he’s converting 74.8 percent of his 127 attempts within the restricted area.
It should come as no surprise that the further Antetokounmpo has drifted from his preferred spots on the court, it leads to the bouts of ineffectiveness we’ve increasingly seen from him this season. To play at the highly efficient level that he has to play at, Antetokounmpo will have to cut out some of the paltry shots he continues to put up night in, night out.
Turnovers have continued to haunt Giannis Antetokounmpo
As Antetokounmpo’s shot selection can be ironed out on multiple fronts, his decision-making with the ball in his hands has been equally concerning. This obviously comes after a night in which he finished with a career-high nine turnovers in that loss to the Lakers.
Through his 15 appearances, Antetokounmpo is averaging 4.3 turnovers per 36 minutes, which is currently matching the mark he had on his 2019-20 campaign.
It’s been on drives to the paint and the basket where Antetokounmpo’s penchant for turning the ball over that has surfaced at inopportune times. On the 10.5 drives that Antetokounmpo is averaging per game, the Greek superstar has a 12.2 turnover percentage per Second Spectrum on such plays.
Antetokounmpo’s probing with the ball in his hands has been increasingly neutralized in the bigger profile clashes the Bucks have played this season, which the Basketball News’ Nekias Duncan explored after the Bucks’ recent loss to the Nets.
And it’s on these drives where opponents have only gotten better in defending and getting Antetokounmpo into foul trouble. To this point, Antetokounmpo has 15 offensive fouls, 11 of which have come on charge calls (per pbpstats) that unsurprisingly tops the league.
For all of these reasons, it’s curious to see if the Bucks and Budenholzer will incorporate more looks for Antetokounmpo as the roller in pick-and-rolls, especially when matched up with fellow contenders in the East and the league as a whole. Antetokounmpo is averaging 1.17 points per possession per Second Spectrum in such sets this season, which ranks in the 59th percentile.
Anything that will result in better looks for Antetokounmpo in the paint is incredibly necessary to fully utilize the skills and presence he brings any time he comes to the court.
Whatever the issues that are ailing Antetokounmpo, he has plenty of time to iron out the many things that are weighing on him this season and to avoid the same pitfalls moving forward.