Before scraping out a win against the Oklahoma City Thunder Friday night, everything had gone south for the Milwaukee Bucks.
The Bucks had dropped five straight games, with the final three losses coming against sub-.500 clubs. Without coincidence, starting point guard Jrue Holiday entered the league’s health and safety protocols just before the skid, and has been absent since.
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His unavailability has brewed trouble for the entire roster, but Khris Middleton finds himself in the eye of the storm. A two-time all-star coming into the season, Middleton was enjoying his greatest year yet, posting career highs in points per game (20.1) and assists per game (5.7) on very efficient shooting.
After falling short of gaining entry into the 50-40-90 club, Middleton was coasting his way in by boasting .520/.465/.930 shooting splits through his first 24 appearances on the season.
However, in seven games without Holiday, those splits have plummeted to 27/44/82. Going along with 4 turnovers and 3.5 fouls per game, Middleton fails to finish possessions, play sound defense, and shoot efficiently. Put bluntly, he hasn’t been himself.
This is no accident and the Bucks knew when they shelled out for Holiday this offseason they were getting a strong two-way player with no real performance flaws. The city of Milwaukee, and Middleton especially, need him back more than ever. So, let’s see the three ways Jrue Holiday directly affects Middleton’s play.
Jrue Holiday’s absence has allowed opponents to swarm Milwaukee Bucks forward Khris Middleton.
At full strength, Milwaukee fields a starting lineup with Holiday, Donte DiVincenzo, Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Brook Lopez.
DiVincenzo and Lopez are serviceable in their respective roles, but Holiday, Middleton, and Giannis spearhead the Bucks’ attack. Giannis and Holiday take turns initiating the offense, with Middleton being a primary beneficiary.
Accounting for all three creates a nightmare for defenses, especially when Giannis alone demands a fortified wall. Putting the ball in Holiday’s hands, while placing Middleton on the wing, facilitates a multi-faceted attack, capable of burning anyone from any area on the court.
However, Holiday’s absence removes an entire dimension from the offense. Defenses have adjusted, applying heavy pressure to Giannis and Middleton with few repercussions. Let’s see what happened in Milwaukee’s last loss against the Toronto Raptors.
Here, Middleton receives an entry pass in the high post from D.J. Augustin, Holiday’s replacement. Middleton’s strong mid-range game puts him in the driver’s seat here – he immediately realigns himself towards the basket, looking to jab step and cut baseline for an easy jumper over the smaller Fred VanVleet.
In the blink of an eye, though, VanVleet seals off that route, and Pascal Siakam rushes him from the other side. Siakam can bring this double knowing that Terrence Davis and Chris Boucher are ready to reapply quick pressure to Antetokounmpo. In jumping to him, they correctly guess that their original assignments, a distant Pat Connaughton and an immobile Brook Lopez, cannot do much to intervene.
Worst of all, Augustin completely removes himself from the play after passing the ball. He could’ve taken advantage of his preoccupied assignment and given Middleton an outlet, but instead remained near mid-court. Holiday’s off-ball instincts would’ve saved the play there, but then again, the Raptors would not have run that defensive set with someone as dangerous as him at point.
Middleton sees this pressure frequently with Holiday off the court, and has struggled to adapt. He either succumbs to the defense, or must frantically scramble to find a teammate. If that teammate isn’t Antetokounmpo, the defense has won the possession – they’ve forced the ball away from their threats.
Holiday’s actions on the court save Middleton from such swarming attacks, and even create comfortable positions for the shooter throughout the game.
Secondly, Jrue Holiday provides high-quality looks for all Milwaukee Bucks shooters, especially Khris Middleton.
Holiday himself can burn a defense from multiple angles. As both a skilled slasher and shooter, he poses a threat from anywhere on the court.
The defense knows this, and must respond accordingly: a strong team will deny him both outside shots and inside buckets, leaving themselves vulnerable to a less-efficient mid-range jumper. With Holiday’s passing ability, though, he’s begging defenses to throw pressure at him, so he can reward his shooters with clean looks.
Take a look at what happened when Toronto hosted Milwaukee at full strength last month.
At this point in the game, Toronto was on an 8-2 run, and in threatening position to steal a win. The Bucks needed a score.
Holiday gets the ball on the wing, and drives hard to the hoop. In an endgame scenario, driving the ball increases the likelihood of producing some amount of points. Inside looks are maximally efficient, and can also lead to foul shots. Even when protecting a lead, empty possessions can kill you.
Based on the scenario alone, it would make sense for the Bucks to force it inside. But, if they’re going to take a jumper, it better be open. Being as dangerous as he is, Holiday’s drive is met with immediate pressure. Stanley Johnson had intentions of covering Middleton, but audibled into additional support. With VanVleet crowding the lane and Lowry on his back, Holiday is triple-teamed.
Still fully in control, he delivers a strike to Middleton’s shooting hand, and the sniper converts.
Jrue Holiday presents danger, so much so that teams will abandon 45 percent 3-point shooters with the game on the line just to stop him. He manufactures high-percentage looks for his shooters all game, and Middleton is always first in line.
It’s no surprise that without his point guard, Middleton’s 3-point percentage has dropped roughly 20 percentage points. Holiday commands attention, optimizing the forward’s looks in single-coverage, where he can operate with ease.
Lastly, Jrue Holiday’s absence puts more defensive responsibilities on Khris Middleton.
Despite his offensive proficiency, Holiday’s defense could be his most valuable attribute. When he sticks himself on an opposing point guard, he removes them from the game. Lateral quickness and active hands help him maintain both position and pressure on his assignments. If they’re going to score on the 2-time All-Defensive guard, it won’t be easy.
Even the strongest players sink into passive roles against his hounding treatment. In the Bucks’ win over the Portland Trail Blazers earlier this month, Holiday held the ever-explosive Damian Lillard to just 17 points on 6-of-13 shooting, which was the second-worst performance of his marvelous season.
Simply holding the ball puts opposing guards at risk as Holiday leads the NBA with 1.9 steals per game. It’s the opposition’s best interest to spread the rock.
Expectedly, the absence of such a stalwart precipitates a defensive drop-off, but the Bucks have dropped off a cliff. None of the backcourt replacements, D.J. Augustin, Donte DiVincenzo, and Bryn Forbes, have the size, physicality and basketball IQ to supplement his production.
Opposing guards do not fear their assignments with Holiday off the court, consistently penetrating with ease and compromising Milwaukee’s position. Let’s look at what happened when DiVincenzo, the most physical of the three, had to fill in against Donovan Mitchell of the Utah Jazz.
A simple in-and-out move puts DiVincenzo on his heels, allowing Mitchell immediate paint access, and passing the responsibility to Middleton and Lopez. Mitchell responds to the help by kicking it out to Middleton’s assignment, the sharpshooting Joe Ingles, who buries a triple in the face of a recovering contest.
Giving credit where it’s due, Mitchell has been harassing opposing guards all season, but Holiday would not have been beaten with such ease. The Jazz backcourt exploited their matchups throughout the game, consistently putting pressure on the second line of defense.
This taxes Middleton especially hard. While he is certainly not the only victim here, wing defenders have actual ground to cover when called into help defense. As seen here, a guard’s drive traps him in no-man’s-land, whereas Lopez, a larger interior defender, can effectively cover Mitchell without leaving his man.
Team defense starts up top. While injuries and COVID-19 related absences are now a part of the game, the effects of Holiday’s absence permeate the roster, hitting mid-sized forwards the hardest. Milwaukee’s team defense must start with Jrue Holiday, especially for Khris Middleton’s sake.
As we await updates on the return of Jrue Holiday, the Bucks and especially Khris Middleton will be eager to have him back in the fold when the time comes.