Although the 2020-21 regular season is nearing on its conclusion, the Milwaukee Bucks are still an unknown enigma to a certain extent.
They are certainly still firmly placed in conversation among the league’s top title contenders, but consistency has been a massive issue. After steamrolling through the regular season in each of the past two seasons and boasting the league’s best overall record, the team has taken a big step back this year by currently owning the seventh-best record in the association at 38-23.
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Part of these issues have stemmed from the team’s massive roster turnover from the offseason, which caused some meshing issues early on. After all, the Bucks were 16-13 at one point early on in the year, but they have seemingly started to put the pieces together as the season has progressed.
Despite their record, this is undoubtedly the best-constructed roster on paper the Bucks have had over the past three seasons. The biggest question now is whether or not they can plow through the unbreakable wall that has been the playoffs.
They undoubtedly have the requisite pieces to win their first title in nearly five decades, but the franchise is not without its concerns. The Bucks do not have one sole piece that is at fault for their issues. When it comes to potential X-factors that could be the determining factor for how the rest of the season plays out, there are several that come to mind.
As they prepare for another title run, hopefully with a different result this time around, here are three X-factors that could shape the remainder of Milwaukee’s season.
Mike Budenholzer’s coaching will be a massive factor for the Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks have gone 152-62 in the regular season since Mike Budenholzer was named the team’s head coach before the 2018-19 season. His ability to be a great regular season coach has never been in question, as evidenced by his two Coach of the Year trophies in the case, the latter of which came in the first year of his Bucks stint.
Yet Budenholzer has not yet been able to translate that success into the postseason during each of the team’s last two trips. In 2019, the Bucks plowed through the playoffs until they held a 2-0 lead over the Toronto Raptors in the Eastern Conference Finals. Seemingly bound for the NBA Finals, first year head coach Nick Nurse outcoached Budenholzer as the Raptors reeled off four straight victories and sent the Bucks home packing.
The following playoff run, Budenholzer was once again outcoached by Erik Spoelstra during Milwaukee’s second round matchup against the Miami Heat. Miami took down Milwaukee in five games, and Budenholzer was under fire for some head scratching coaching decisions, mostly the distribution of minutes among his star players.
For reference, Giannis Antetokounmpo averaged just 30.8 minutes per contest across nine playoff games last season. Following a loss that saw them go down 0-3 in the series, Budenholzer was asked about the lack of extended minutes between Giannis and Khris Middleton and whether he regrets not giving them more time. Via ESPN’s Eric Woodyard:
"“No, I think we, obviously, it’s 48 minutes. You gotta be good for the last 12. If anything, I think keeping us fresh and ready to go and compete and all those things,” Budenholzer said. “Khris was in a little bit of a foul trouble. It’s a high level. If you’re going as hard as these guys are in a playoff game, 35-36 [minutes], I think that’s pushing the ceiling.”"
Those comments from Budenholzer justifiably infuriated many as the Bucks imploded for the second consecutive postseason. After the team soon lost the series, many were understandably calling for Budenholzer’s job, but the Bucks decided to stand pat and give him another shot.
Throughout 61 games this year, Budenholzer has shown a willingness to try new principles and schemes, which would have been frowned upon in the past. One of the most significant differences has been the team’s newfound willingness to switch defensively. Switching has never been Bundeholzer’s style, but the team has been doing it more frequently this season, particularly after acquiring P.J. Tucker before the trade deadline.
Ultimately, although Budenholzer has shown glimpses of being a better coach, it will not matter until he proves it in the postseason. If he can make the proper adjustments when necessary in a seven-game series, the Bucks stand a far better chance.
Donte DiVincenzo’s production will be a pivotal factor for the Milwaukee Bucks
There were many justifiable concerns surrounding Donte DiVincenzo entering this season with the Bucks, most notably his timeline.
This would be the guard’s third season with the team, and it was legitimate to question whether or not he was capable of being the starting two-guard on a championship team. It seems that the team themselves answered that question in the offseason when they initially shipped off DiVincenzo and others to Sacramento in a deal centered around Bogdan Bogdanovic, which ultimately fell through.
Electing to keep him on the roster in the aftermath of that debacle, the Bucks have relied more heavily on the 24-year-old this season than ever before. Sliding him into the starting shooting guard slot, the third-year guard is averaging 10.3 points on .415/.377/.737 shooting splits, 5.5 rebounds, and 3.1 assists in 27.5 minutes per game. While several of those are career bests, the guard has struggled mightily to find the balance between hot and cold on a game-to-game basis.
April has particularly been a tough month for him when it comes to scoring the basketball as he has finished with double-figures just three times in the team’s 11 contests. Shooting a mere 38 percent from the floor and 33.9 percent from behind the arc during this stretch, things are starting to grow worrisome for the young guard. While his role does not solely revolve around putting points on the board, that was an area that the Bucks needed to see improvement in, and it has not all been there.
There have been glimpses of DiVincenzo at his best though, one of which did indeed come earlier this month in the team’s 116-101 loss to the Dallas Mavericks. Without Giannis Antetokounmpo in the lineup, DiVincenzo stepped up by scoring 22 points on 7-of-13 shooting, including an impressive 6-for-10 from distance. While DiVincenzo will certainly not hit 20 points nightly, some steady scoring will undoubtedly help the Bucks.
If the Big Ragu can find any sense of consistency with his scoring heading into the postseason, it could alter things entirely for the Bucks. As the weakest link in their starting lineup, DiVincenzo remains a massive X-factor for the team.
Khris Middleton’s playoff consistency will be an X-factor for the Milwaukee Bucks
Can Khris Middleton be the second-best player for the Bucks on their quest for a championship? That burning question has loomed over the franchise for the past several years since their rise to contention, and so far, the answer has been no.
He has been a sensational talent in the regular season, but the playoffs have been hit or miss for Middleton. While Budenholzer justifiably receives the lion’s share of the blame for Milwaukee’s implosion in the East Finals against the Raptors in 2019, Middleton has also been criticized for regressing and averaging just 13.7 points in that same series.
In last year’s playoffs, Middleton was solid as he averaged 20.3 points over 10 games. However, his efficiency dipped tremendously compared to the near 50-40-90 splits he had in the regular season as he shot just 39.4 percent from the floor and 35.4 percent from deep.
This time around, the Bucks cannot have these inconsistent performances from Middleton. With Jrue Holiday now in the fold, the forward might even slide down to occupy that third fiddle role in a postseason scenario. Either way, the Bucks cannot win a championship if the former All-Star struggles to elevate his game in the playoffs.
Much like DiVincenzo, he has been plagued by his own inconsistencies throughout April, having some great games but also many awful showings. With the regular season nearing an end, Middleton must find a nice rhythm before the Bucks head into the postseason, or they will likely be doomed to suffer the same fate as the past two seasons.