We’re enough games into the 2021-22 season where people are starting to make assumptions about every team even though it is still incredibly early and there is nothing that can be taken from a six-game sample. Imagine this was a random six-game sample from the middle of February, you’d think that it’s a bit silly to panic about the Milwaukee Bucks because it’s six games!
But it’s also a new season so there are new challenges that teams are facing and the Bucks are not immune to that. They’ve dealt with a slew of injuries to key players, most notably Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez.
This has caused some stats to look a little wonky through their first six games and has some fans ready to hit the panic button. So it’s time to play a classic game of panic or patience where we look at a few concerning stats to begin the season (both team and player) to try to determine whether it’s time to be concerned so early in the season or take the advice of Aaron Rodgers and R-E-L-A-X.
Khris Middleton is shooting well below his career average for 3-point percentage for the Milwaukee Bucks
I honestly didn’t even realize how poorly Khris Middleton was shooting from 3 to begin the season, but the Bucks’ second star is shooting right around 25 percent on over five attempts per game in the early going. Naturally, he’s shooting a near career-high on his 2-point attempts at around 54 percent so he’s still getting to his spots inside the arc, he’s just not converting from behind it.
Middleton has never shot below 30 percent from 3 in his entire career. You’d have to go back to his rookie season with the Detroit Pistons where he played 27 games to find the last time he shot below 35 percent from 3-point range, so there’s a strong track record of success.
He got off to an absurd start to begin last season, shooting over 48 percent from 3 in the opening six games of the season but perhaps there’s a bit of fatigue for Middleton following a short turnaround from his long season, championship run, and Olympic gold medal run last season.
What’s comforting is that Middleton is getting around four 3s a game that is classified as “open” (the closest defender is within four-to-six feet), per NBA.com/stats. That is nearly a shot more per game than he got last season on open 3-point attempts and he shot over 38 percent on those looks.
This could be any random six-game sample through a random stretch of the season and fans wouldn’t bat an eye, considering Middleton is still averaging over 20 points per game and he’s still taking a good amount of 3s. He’ll break out of his 3-point funk soon enough, but for now, it’s cool to see Giannis Antetokounmpo shooting a higher percentage from 3 than Middleton. Who would have seen that coming six games into the season!
Verdict: Patience
The Milwaukee Bucks are in the bottom three of the league in rebounding rate
Perhaps the most concerning figure in Bucks land right now is that the team is getting consistently out-rebounded by their opponents to begin the season. They rank in the bottom three of the league in rebounding rate through six games and have struggled to contain certain players on the offensive glass.
A large reason for this (no pun intended) is that they have been without Brook Lopez for their last five games after he played on opening night against the Brooklyn Nets. The big man has been hampered by back soreness that seems as if it will hold him out for the near future.
Not having that big body to pick up extra guys on box-outs has led to some ugly rebounding numbers and has the Bucks near the bottom of the league for a stat that they typically excel at. Lopez may not put up gaudy individual rebound numbers, but he’s great at boxing out and letting a player like Antetokounmpo or Jrue Holiday grab the rebound and push the ball off a missed shot.
While I believe individual rebound numbers are a bit overrated (look at Lopez as an example), team rebounding numbers are important, especially if a team is notably good or bad at it. It creates transition opportunities from missed shots or extra possessions on offense. The Bucks haven’t been able to get as many of either so far this season without Lopez.
I don’t believe it’s time to panic about these numbers seeing as they’ve been without Lopez for most of the season, but it’s slightly concerning that one player is the pin that holds their team rebounding together and if he’s not there, they collapse and turn into one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. Depth in the frontcourt was something I wondered could be a hindrance to them this season and early on, it has been.
Verdict: Tentative patience
The Milwaukee Bucks’ assist numbers are down in the early part of the season
Over the last couple of seasons, the Bucks haven’t been known for putting up the high assist numbers that a team like the Golden State Warriors would produce, but they’re still a team that moves the ball around and has some strong passers on the team.
The Bucks assist rate is in the bottom third of the league and they’re averaging a couple of assists fewer per game compared to last year when they took a bit of a drop-off from the previous year. Some of that could be attributed to the fact that the Bucks had very inconsistent backup point guard play, so it forced Antetokounmpo and Middleton to do more facilitating because there weren’t enough reliable passers on the team.
This year they re-added George Hill, who is a good passer in his own right, and someone who gets them into their offense but the numbers are even worse than last year when they had a combination of D.J. Augustin and Jeff Teague playing behind Holiday.
A big factor for their lack of assists this year comes from Holiday missing four of their first six games and that they’re without Donte DiVincenzo in addition to their starting point guard. This has led to a player like Justin Robinson being asked to do more than he should and while he’s a crafty passer, he’s not ready to run an NBA offense.
Players like Jordan Nwora and Grayson Allen show flashes of their passing feel, but it isn’t consistent enough and they aren’t consistently great playmakers. Antetokounmpo is holding up a lot of their passing numbers with a near 40 percent assist rate on his own. The only other player with a double-digit assist rate outside of the big three is Hill.
This isn’t a huge worry for the Bucks as it should improve once Holiday returns and they get settled in with their normal roles and rotations once again. That being said, one of the keys to the Bucks finding their rhythm in their half-court offense this year will be moving the ball to get good looks as opposed to relying on their stars to create looks for themselves constantly.
Verdict: Anxious patience
As it turns out, not having two of your four best players hampers how good a team can be, even if they have arguably the best player in the world!