Death, taxes, and Giannis Antetokounmpo having an MVP-caliber season for the Milwaukee Bucks.
We’ve reached the all-star break, and the Greek Freak is once again an MVP candidate in 2021-22. He has had an MVP-level regular season every year since 2018 when he won his first MVP, and his consistency in recent years has been remarkable.
After winning two MVPs and a championship in the past three seasons, there is no doubt in anyone’s mind that Giannis is one of the league’s best players. But where exactly does he stand among MVP candidates so far this season?
Looking at Giannis Antetokounmpo’s MVP case this season
When it comes to the basic numbers, Giannis is right up there with the best of them (as always). He is currently averaging 29.4 points, 11.2 rebounds, and six assists per game, one of only two players (Nikola Jokic) who is top 20 in the league in all three categories. He leads the NBA in 30/10/5 games this season with 16 of them.
What is also incredible about the numbers Giannis is able to put up is how few minutes he plays. He is not even in the top 60 in minutes played at just 32.7 minutes per game, yet he puts up averages that are just as good as anyones.
Giannis leads the NBA in points per 36 minutes (32.4), and this is something that has become normal for him. He is on pace to become the first player in league history to go four straight seasons averaging 30+ points per 36 minutes, and the 2nd player to even do it four times in their entire career (Michael Jordan). He is of the most efficient scorers ever.
As far as advanced numbers, Giannis has been fantastic there as well. He is 2nd in Win Shares, Box Plus-Minus, Value Over Replacement Player, Player Efficiency Rating, and Total Points Added.
His overall numbers aren’t quite to the level of his 2019-20 season, but this has been the best year of Giannis’ career. He is shooting his highest percentage from three since his rookie year, his highest percentage on free throws since 2018, and according to NBA.com/stats, his highest percentage from midrange since 2014. Over the last ten games, he is shooting 41 percent from three, 51 percent from midrange, and 74 percent on free throws. He is also at his highest assist to turnover ratio since 2016. In terms of passing, shooting, and free throws, this is the best combination of all three that Giannis has ever had in a single season.
The two players who are clearly battling Giannis for MVP right now are Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic (honorable mention to DeMar DeRozan, but he is clearly fourth right now). Both big men are having fantastic seasons and are right up on the same level as Giannis, and the race is going to be very close throughout the rest of the season. Let’s look at how Giannis compares to them.
Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Joel Embiid in the MVP race
Joel Embiid is having the best year of his career and has become a top-five player in the league. The Bucks and Sixers just faced off on Thursday, with the Sixers winning the game and Embiid putting up 42 points, 14 rebounds, and five assists, while Giannis put up 32 points, 11 rebounds, and nine assists. There clearly is a growing rivalry between the two teams and players.
Overall this season, Giannis seems to have the edge on Embiid statistically, at least according to Stathead. He averages more points, rebounds, and assists per 36 minutes on better efficiency — 63 percent true shooting compared to Embiid’s 61 percent, and 58 percent effective field goal percentage compared to Embiid’s 53 percent. He also beats Embiid in all of the advanced stats mentioned earlier.
Embiid has been on a tear since Christmas, averaging 33.4 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 4.7 assists on 64 percent true shooting and launching himself into the MVP race. However, Giannis has been equally as impressive over that same stretch, putting up 32.2 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 6.3 assists on 66 percent true shooting. Even in Embiid’s best stretch of his career, he is still not able to definitively beat out Giannis. He has been really, really good, but overall Giannis has been better on both ends.
The case for Embiid over Giannis is that Embiid has the Sixers at third in the East, compared to the Bucks who are fifth in the East with a better supporting cast. Embiid right now is the odds-on favorite to win MVP, but if his numbers stay below Giannis Antetokounmpo’s and the Bucks finish ahead of the Sixers, it looks like Antetokounmpo will probably deserve it over him.
Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Nikola Jokic in the MVP race
Let’s now talk about last year’s MVP, as Nikola Jokic is making a strong case to go back-to-back this year. He’s averaging 26 points, 13.8 rebounds, and 7.9 assists on 65 percent true shooting.
Compared to Giannis, he averages more rebounds and assists per 36 minutes on better efficiency, and he leads the NBA in basically every advanced stat there is. Giannis does have him beat in scoring and defensive ability, but statistically, Jokic is the MVP.
He isn’t quite on the same level as Giannis or Embiid in terms of scoring, but Jokic’s passing ability makes up for that, and he is extremely important to his team’s success. The Nuggets are an absurd 20.7 points per 100 possessions better with Jokic on the court compared to when he’s not. For comparison, the Bucks are 12.5 points per 100 possessions better with Giannis, and the Sixers are 10.7 points per 100 possessions better with Embiid.
Another thing to note is that Giannis, Embiid, and Jokic have all been very clutch this season. According to Inpredictable, they are all in the top five in eFG percentage on clutch shots (shots with an elevated impact on win probability) among players with 70+ attempts — Giannis at 65.7 percent, Embiid 58.3 percent, and Jokic 54.9 percent.
When taking into account both offense and defense, I think Giannis is the best player in the world and probably the MVP. However, Jokic might be ahead in the MVP race right now with his numbers and how he has kept the Nuggets a playoff team despite missing Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. If the Bucks finish as a top 3 seed in the East, that would definitely help Giannis’ MVP case. It should be a tight race the rest of the season between Giannis, Jokic, and Embiid, and we’ll see if Antetokounmpo can become the ninth player in NBA history to win three or more MVPs.
Stay tuned to see if Giannis Antetokounmpo can do it in what should be a down-to-the-wire race.