Reports have come out recently announcing that both Khris Middleton and Pat Connaughton will miss the first few weeks of the 2022-23 NBA season for the Milwaukee Bucks. This leaves the Bucks at a very disadvantageous position, especially at the small forward position.
That said, there will be implications of both players being out, opportunities for other small forwards to step up in the absence of the two Bucks stalwarts. The first two that come to mind being Jordan Nwora and rookie MarJon Beauchamp. Certainly through three weeks these two will not be the only two players that Mike Budenholzer will use to fill the void of two of the Bucks most consistently available players during his tenure.
Off the top of my head it’s conceivable of four players starting in place of Middleton, could be the two aforementioned small forwards, it could be Wesley Matthews for defensive purposes or it could be Bobby Portis to put the Bucks next best player in the starting lineup.
What makes these two missing an interesting prospect, is what Mike Budenholzer will do with different lineup combinations. It’s well documented that he likes to tinker with different starters and run different lineups of defensive minded players, surrounding Giannis Antetokounmpo with shooters, or running a small or big lineup. Therein lies the intrigue, should the Milwaukee Bucks play small ball in the absence of Middleton and Connaughton? Or, should they put in more big men and control the court with sheer size? There is certainly merit to both strategies, let’s break them down individually.
Milwaukee Bucks lineups with Middleton and Connaughton out: Making the case for small ball
It pretty much goes without saying that just about any small ball lineup the Milwaukee Bucks employ will have Giannis Antetokounmpo roaming the middle at the center position. It is possible that Mike Budenholzer could opt to use Bobby Portis in such a lineup and keep a similar amount of energy on the floor and some better spot up shooting.
However, what makes a Milwaukee Bucks small ball lineup small would be the Bucks using two point guards at the same time. Last season, despite George Hill missing a chunk of the season, spent 10.1 minutes per game on the floor with Jrue Holiday. It is interesting to note that while on the floor together, the pair had a +/- of 6.4, making it the second most productive pairing as far as +/- goes for pairs that played a significant amount of games together!
That is somewhat eye opening but when you consider that the Bucks didn’t add Jevon Carter until February and Holiday and Hill were the only two trusted point guards on the roster, even after the Carter addition, it seems bold to put both players on the floor together from an injury scare perspective.
Holiday and Carter spent just 6.1 minutes per game on the floor together in 17 games last season. During those 6.1 minutes the pair did have a +/- of 1.1, so while not blowing teams away, it was still a positively effective lineup pairing.
Expanding to three player lineup combinations and adding Grayson Allen to the mix at small forward to stay with the small ball lineup, a combination of Holiday, Carter and Allen was used sparsely, just 2.5 minutes per game in only three contests. There were however, 29 games in which a combination of Holiday, Hill and Allen were used, it is still a small sample size of just 5.6 minutes per game but the resulting +/- registered at 4.6 and a very comfortable 40.2 percent on 3-point shots. (The tiny three game sample size between Holiday, Carter and Allen resulted in 42.9 percent on 3-pointers between the three.)
Exploring a larger sample size of Jrue Holiday, Jevon Carter and Grayson Allen may certainly be a small ball lineup worth exploring. The Milwaukee Bucks would be able to keep strong defenders and good shooters on the floor with whoever they put at power forward and center.
Milwaukee Bucks lineups with Middleton and Connaughton out: What about a lineup composed of big men?
The starting lineup for the Milwaukee Bucks in their first game in Abu Dhabi during the preseason featured Jrue Holiday, Grayson Allen, Giannis Antetokounmpo at small forward, Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez. That makes for a starting lineup with an average height over 6’8″!
Looking at a big man lineup containing even Portis and Lopez is a small sample, just 12 games and 8.3 minutes per game that did still result in a positive plus minus. However, looking at lineups with Bobby Portis and Giannis Antetokounmpo on the floor is not only a bigger sample, but a more enticing one.
Giannis and Bobby played 62 games together last season, in those games they spent 17.9 minutes together per game on the floor. It was also the fourth most efficient pairing in +/- of duos that contained Giannis Antetokounmpo at +4.6, just 0.1 behind the pairing of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton.
The potential big men trios to make with a start of Giannis and Bobby include one, Serge Ibaka, who played in just four games with the other two, not registering any noteworthy stats. Two being Brook Lopez, with whom the other two only played three games on the floor together but did make 50 percent of their 3-point shots on the floor together. Third and finally being Sandro Mamukelashvili, an even less seen trio, just one game with the three of them playing together.
So while there is some intrigue in a lineup containing two guards and a forest of trees opponents would have trouble navigating through, it will certainly be an experimental lineup if it happens.
Thankfully we don’t have to wait long to see what the lineups will look like.