The Milwaukee Bucks are officially set to square off against the Miami Heat in the first round of the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
This will be the third meeting between the Bucks and Heat in the last four postseasons, with the two sides each taking a victory. While the top-seeded Bucks will be favored in this rubber match, the Heat are still undeniably a good team who have given the Bucks trouble in the past. With that said, let us look at three X-factors for the Bucks in round one who could help them take down the Heat due to what they bring to the table.
1 – Jae Crowder
The Bucks traded for Jae Crowder because they hoped he could be a difference-maker during the postseason. They will get to see what Crowder can do on the big stage against his old team right away. While it would be surprising to see Crowder be promoted into the starting lineup like many thought he would, he will still play a prominent role in this series off the bench, in all likelihood.
Slowing down big wings like Jimmy Butler is the primary reason the Bucks traded for Crowder in the first place. His use of physicality and toughness when defending top-tier scorers is among his strongest attributes, and it will be put to the test in this series. If Crowder can defend Butler well, it would free up players like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday to focus more on offense rather than having to carry the load on both ends, which would obviously be huge for the Bucks.
Crowder’s switchability on the defensive end will be big in this series, as it will have him on the floor in key moments. He will likely draw the duty of guarding Butler primarily, but knowing he can also stick with key players like Tyler Herro, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and more is good to know. While he looked a bit off at times during the regular season, which was somewhat expected after sitting out several months while also battling a calf injury, he certainly has it in him to turn up the intensity on that end.
Crowder was motivated earlier this season to take down his former team, the Phoenix Suns, in a regular season meeting, so he should get up for the chance to take down another former team of his in the playoffs.
2 – Grayson Allen
Plenty of eyes will be glued to Grayson Allen in these playoffs following last year’s second round debacle. It needs little rehashing, but fans will remember that Allen had an incredibly poor outing against the Boston Celtics last year, which was the reason behind him being in trade rumors for much of the past season. Allen has a chance to redeem himself this season, and this series could be a big one for one due to what he brings to the table offensively.
Per NBA.com, the Heat gave up the second-fewest points in the paint per game during the regular season at 46.2 on average. Due to their dedication to defending the paint, Miami surrendered the third most opponent 3-point makes per game in the regular season. The Heat will look to shut off the paint to prevent Antetokounmpo from dominating, which will give the Bucks’ outside shooters more looks on the perimeter. That is where Allen could undoubtedly be very useful.
Allen’s strongest attribute is undeniably his long-range shooting; as a member of the Bucks, he’s shot 40.4 percent on 5.5 attempts in the regular season. If he can translate his sweet shooting to this series, he could undoubtedly have an impact. The looks will be there, but it will be up to Allen to make them count. Allen gave the Bucks a massive lift in round one last season due to his sweet perimeter shooting, and the team is certainly hoping he can do it once more.
Yet, Allen’s shooting alone does not make him an X-factor, as it will be interesting to see what he does on the defensive end. Allen will likely be targeted on the defensive end as he has been in the past; the question is whether he holds up on that side of things. If it’s a repeat of last year against the Celtics, it might be wise for the Bucks to simply role with Wesley Matthews instead of Allen. However, if Allen looks competent and can hold his own, he could make a huge difference in this opening series on both ends.
3. Brook Lopez
Brook Lopez has been nothing short of spectacular this season. Just a season removed from back surgery, Lopez finished the season as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate and had one of his best offensive seasons in years. Now, the Bucks are hoping Lopez can carry that excellence over into the postseason, as he could be huge, especially in this opening series.
People often forget how crucial Lopez was against the Heat in that first-round sweep in 2021 due to his defense. Across those four games, Lopez defended Miami’s Bam Adebayo for 145.4 partial possessions and held him to 33 points on 15-of-41 shooting (36.6 percent). If Lopez can replicate that success and keep Adebayo in check, it would help the Bucks tremendously in this series by limiting one of the Heat’s top scoring threats.
Similarly to Allen, Lopez’s outside shot will also be key in this series. The center shot a career-best 37.4 percent from three this season, and if he can keep it rolling in the playoffs, it would force the Heat to either come out to the perimeter to defend him, which would free up more room for the Greek Freak inside, or live with it. The looks will be there to start, and it will be crucial for Lopez to hit them with regularity as he did in the regular season.
Stay tuned as the Milwaukee Bucks host the Miami Heat in Game 1 at Fiserv Forum tomorrow.