Veteran shooting guard Wesley Matthews signed with the Bucks on a one-year, $2.9 million contract last summer. With him entering unrestricted free agency this offseason, the Bucks stand to lose one of the best shooters and defenders on their roster. The Bucks are likely to offer him a contract, but they may not be able to match what other teams are willing to pay him.
From hitting timely threes to locking down opposing stars, Matthews did it all for the Bucks, even at the age of 36. He had a solid season for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2022-23, averaging a modest 3.4 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 0.7 assists per game while shooting 36.3 percent from the field and a below-average 31.5 percent from 3-point range. Matthews will no doubt be a target for other teams due to his reputation as a solid defender and a good three-point shooter.
Matthews’ season was not without its struggles. He missed 15 games due to injury, and he shot just 36.3 percent from the field, which was the lowest mark of his career. But he stayed ready all year long regardless of his role. He was responsible for locking down Kawhi Leonard in the dying seconds of one particularly heated matchup versus the Clippers.
Though he’s been an all-around glue guy for the Bucks, Wesley Matthews hung his hat on the defensive end. According to matchup data on NBA.com/stats, Matthews held opposing forwards to 44.3 percent efficiency when he was the closest defender. That he did this as a relatively undersized shooting guard speaks to his effort and hustle on that end of the floor. Bucks fans know his ability well by now: in one postseason, he was singularly responsible for shutting down the likes of DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine in the absence of a bigger wing defender. It was only against the Jays of Boston that his lack of size finally gave out, but only after a hard-fought seven-game series in which he gave Jayson Tatum all he could handle.
The Milwaukee Bucks are projected to have a salary of $221 million for the 2023-24 season. This is $27 million over the salary cap, meaning they have no cap space. They will need to use either their mid-level exception or bi-annual exception to sign free agents. However, the rules surrounding these exceptions are still unclear under the new collective bargaining agreement.
Here are a few names the Bucks could consider to be their next veteran wing defender.
No. 1 – Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Nickeil Alexander-Walker is one player who could potentially replace Wesley Matthews for the Bucks. He is a young, athletic guard who can score the ball and defend opposing scorers decently. He would give the Bucks another option off the bench and could help them create more space for Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Alexander-Walker had a bit of an up-and-down season in 2022-23, to put it lightly. He bounced around and moved from Portland to Utah and eventually Minnesota but generally struggled to find a stable role in all of those teams’ rotations that he could really star in. By season’s end, he averaged just 5.9 points, 1.8 rebounds, and 1.4 assists per game in 23 games for Minnesota. Those numbers are rather pedestrian, though he did shoot a respectable 38.2 percent from 3-point range for the season.
Despite his struggles, the fourth-year shooting guard showed flashes of his potential. He had a handful of games where he scored 20 or more points, and he also had a few games where he shot the ball well from 3-point range. It’s clear he’s able to heat up at times as long as the circumstances are right.
For the Bucks’ needs at the moment, Alexander-Walker’s defense is probably the most interesting facet of his game. According to Cleaning the Glass, the opposition scored just 107.5 points per 100 possessions in the minutes that Alexander-Walker played at the three spot, which puts him in the 93rd percentile in his position. Just like Matthews, Alexander-Walker split his time rather evenly between small forward and shooting guard despite being just 6-foot-5.
There are likely to be some concerns about Alexander-Walker’s fit with the Milwaukee Bucks. He is not a great shooter, which could be a problem in the playoffs when teams pull out the Vaunted Giannis Wall to congest the paint and force the Greek Freak to rely on his shooters. He is also not a great defender, which could be exploited by the opposing team’s best players.
Alexander-Walker could be a good replacement for Matthews, but there are some risks involved. He doesn’t exactly bring the same things Matthews does, but he’s a sound, young backup with plenty of room to grow going forward — and as far as free-agent backups go, the Bucks could certainly do a lot worse.
No. 2 – Justin Holiday
Justin Holiday could be a good replacement for Wesley Matthews for the Milwaukee Bucks. He is a 6-foot-6, 3-and-D wing who is a good defender and can shoot the long ball at a respectable rate (34.1 percent for his career). He is also a good passer and rebounder for his size and is two years younger than Matthews.
Holiday had a solid rest of the season, playing 18 games for the Dallas Mavericks, averaging 4.4 points, 1.8 rebounds, and an assist per game. He shot just 29 percent from 3-point range for them but shot closer to 35 percent when he was with Atlanta at the start of the season.
According to NBA.com/stats, Holiday held opposing guards to just52-of-133 shooting (that’s 39.1 percent efficiency!) as the closest defender. He’s not as switchable as Matthews, though, as he allowed opposing forwards to convert on 55.5 percent of their attempts matched up against him.
Just like his younger brother Jrue, Holiday is a long, athletic defender who is quick to react, has good basketball instincts, and can leverage his size and length to defend multiple positions. He is also a good communicator and is able to help his teammates out on defense, which is a leadership quality the Bucks system prioritizes on that end of the floor. If he can improve his 3-point shooting, he could become a valuable asset to any team looking for a 3-and-D wing player, including the Milwaukee Bucks.
He can be inconsistent at times, though, and is not a great scorer overall. He’s also not a great ball-handler, which means he can’t do much offensively outside of being a catch-and-shoot threat. But ultimately, competent 3-and-D wings are a precious commodity that wins you games, and the Bucks would do well to find solid replacements for their outgoing wings.
Holiday is expected to sign a contract in the $2-5 million range, which would be a good value for the Bucks and relatively in the same range as Matthews’ contract. Perhaps he would be willing to sign for lower to give him a chance to play next to his brother Jrue and compete for a title next to Giannis Antetokounmpo.
No. 3 – Terrence Ross
Terrence Ross had a solid season for the Phoenix Suns in 2022-23. He averaged 8.3 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game. He shot 43.0 percent from the field and 36.8 percent from 3-point range. Ross is well-established as a crafty veteran scorer who would give the Bucks another option on the offensive end. He is a career 34.9 percent 3-point shooter and can score in a variety of ways and can certainly replace what little offense Wesley Matthews brought to the table for the Bucks and then some.
However, Ross’ defense for his position is middling at best. He’s also just 32 years old, which is on the older side for a role player. He may not be able to keep up with the Bucks’ up-tempo style of play for a long period of time.
He doesn’t give the Milwaukee Bucks much of what Wesley Matthews did, but he could more than make up for that with his shot-making and three-level scoring ability. Tracking data on NBA.com/stats paints a picture of a decorated offensive player who sticks to his gun.
Midrange pull-ups made up nearly a third of his shot diet, and he converted on an excellent 51.5 percent of those. He also knocked down a scorching 46.8 percent of his “wide-open” 3-point shots. He’s clearly a true three-level scorer, which is something the Bucks have needed far longer than their defensive struggles at the wing positions.
Ross has been known to be inconsistent throughout his career. He can go on hot streaks and score a lot of points, but he can also go cold and disappear for stretches. These things could be a problem for the Milwaukee Bucks, whose main identity is on defense.
He’s likely going to land a contract worth somewhere in the $5-10 million range but could very easily sign for a discount if handed the chance to compete for titles in the twilight of his career.
The Milwaukee Bucks are expected to be a contender in the Eastern Conference next season, and they need to add another scorer to their roster. Ross would be a good fit for their needs, and he could help them win a championship.
No. 4 – Troy Brown Jr.
Troy Brown Jr. is a 23-year-old, versatile wing who is a good defender and can shoot the long ball at a pretty respectable rate. He averaged 7.1 points and 4.1 rebounds per game while shooting 38.1 percent from 3-point range in 2022-23. He is expected to sign a contract in the $2-5 million range.
Brown Jr. is a good fit for the Milwaukee Bucks because he can help them on both ends of the court with his all-around production. He is a good defender who can guard multiple positions, and he can also shoot the 3-ball with relative efficiency. He would be a good addition to the Bucks’ bench, and he could also start if needed.
The Wesley Matthews comparison comes in that Troy Brown Jr. is a 6-foot-7 guard who can defend multiple positions. According to matchup data on NBA.com/stats, Brown held opposing guards to 35.7 field goal shooting, while he held forwards to 28.6 percent. He spent 73.8 percent of his time at the shooting guard spot and 26.2 percent as a forward. While he is probably a natural shooting guard, he is also capable of playing small forward effectively.
As far as completely replacing the same production and role Matthews provided, Brown is probably the one player who comes closest. He’s a stout defender who can lock up multiple positions while knocking down treys at a respectable clip to keep defenses honest.
It remains to be seen what kind of contracts these free agents may be seeking in the open market, but it wouldn’t hurt for Jon Horst to throw his hat in the ring to find out. Losing Matthews would be a blow to the Bucks. He is a valuable player, and he would be difficult to replace. However, the Milwaukee Bucks have a number of options, and they should be able to find a way to fill his role.
Stay tuned for more Milwaukee Bucks analysis as the postseason plays on.