There’s really not much to say about the Milwaukee Bucks’ season, considering how it ended. The Bucks came up short in their quest for their third NBA championship, losing to the eighth-seeded Miami Heat in just the very first round of the playoffs. It was a humbling defeat, to say the least, and no amount of future moves can erase the sting of this past postseason.
At this point, the only way out is forward. The Bucks have to confront a lot of what went wrong in this postseason. While there were many factors that led to the Bucks’ defeat, there are a few essential moves that they must make this offseason in order to be contenders again next season.
Here are some essential moves the Bucks front office needs to make this offseason to stay alive in this rapidly-changing Eastern Conference landscape.
No. 1 – Get younger and more athletic
It’s not a secret at this point that the Bucks have consistently had one of the oldest rosters in the NBA throughout the Mike Budenholzer era.
The Milwaukee Bucks entered the 2022-23 season as the oldest team in the NBA, with an average age of 29.47 years old. (They got older, too, when they added 32-year-old Jae Crowder and 37-year-old Goran Dragic.) This lack of youth was a major factor in their early exit from the playoffs, as they were no match for the Miami Heat’s athleticism and hustle.
The Bucks’ lineups in the playoffs also typically included one of Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton, and Joe Ingles at all times. Though they’re excellent players in different areas of the game in their own right, those three routinely got beat on defense by younger and quicker players. Their cuts were also less forceful and imposing, and as a result, they did little for the Bucks’ offense when their outside shots weren’t falling.
This offseason, the Milwaukee Bucks should look to address those offensive and defensive deficiencies by getting much younger.
In the short term, getting younger also means staying healthy for longer periods of time. As it stands, it’s been three years of key Bucks players getting injured in the worst moments. They’re lucky it didn’t cost them much when Donte DiVincenzo went down in their championship season, but for the third straight year, the Bucks were not at full strength in the playoffs. Middleton was a step slow and was clearly not himself, and Giannis Antetokounmpo was not 100 percent after hurting his back to start the series against Miami.
Getting younger also helps future-proof them for a time when Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton are either no longer on the team or no longer spry enough to provide star-level production. Giannis Antetokounmpo is still in his prime, but he is not getting any younger. The Bucks need to start building a team that can compete for championships for years to come, and that means adding younger players who can grow and develop alongside Antetokounmpo. Right now, the only players on the roster below the age of 25 are MarJon Beauchamp and A.J. Green.
There are a number of free agents out there who can fill that need both ways. Stanley Johnson is both young and athletic and is a stud on defense who’s shown an ability to shoot the ball well this past season. Troy Brown Jr. is of the same mold and might be swayed by the promise of a larger role next to the Greek Freak.
Wherever the Bucks find their youth and bounce, there’s no question that younger is the way to go moving forward.
No. 2 – The Milwaukee Bucks should look to get more firepower this offseason
The Bucks’ bench was a major liability this season. They ranked 17th in the NBA in bench scoring with just 34.3 extra markers per contest from their secondary guys, and they were often outscored by their opponents’ bench. The Bucks have known this for a while, but it’s clearer than ever that they absolutely need to add some depth and scoring punch off the bench in order to be a more complete team for the playoffs.
Outside of Bobby Portis, there’s really no tertiary Bucks that’s a complete, three-level scorer. Jevon Carter and Pat Connaughton are certainly talented shooters, but they don’t provide much else on the offensive side of the ball. As a result of their current bench struggles, the Bucks’ offense was stagnant at times in the playoffs, mostly in end-game situations. They need to add more shooting to their roster, especially from the perimeter, to open up the floor for Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton.
Getting more firepower also means getting a deeper bench. The Bucks’ bench was not very good in the playoffs. They need to add some more depth and scoring off the bench. This would help to keep them in games when Antetokounmpo and Middleton are not on the court.
There are a few reasons why the Bucks need to improve their shooting. It would make them a more versatile team on offense. As it stands, they rely too heavily on Giannis Antetokounmpo to create shots for himself and his teammates. If they had more shooters on the roster, they would be able to spread the floor and create more open looks for everyone.
In the regular season, the Bucks were fourth in 3-point attempts per game after they hoisted over 40 treys a night. But they were only tenth in efficiency after converting on just 36.8 percent of those attempts. In the playoffs, they often struggled to score in the fourth quarter. This was due in part to their lack of shooting, as they were unable to create enough open looks to keep up with the Celtics.
This weakness is easy to pounce on when the game slows down. In the regular season, the Bucks were already 17th in the league in points per game in situations where the scoring margin is within five points with five or fewer minutes remaining in a game. But in the playoffs, they were the second-worst team in the clutch and the second-worst team in fourth-quarter points, per NBA.com/stats.
The Bucks’ biggest weakness this season was their lack of a consistent scorer on the wing, and better shooting across all three levels would help the Bucks close out games. Even in the regular season, Khris Middleton missed significant time with injuries, and Jrue Holiday was often the only reliable scoring option outside of Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Bucks need to add a veteran wing scorer who can create their own shot and take some of the scoring load off of Antetokounmpo.
Competent coaches have picked this weakness apart time and time again, and it’s time the front office addressed it for good. No matter how they acquire it, the Bucks need to improve their shooting this offseason. It is a key area of need for the team, and it would make them a much more dangerous team in the playoffs.
No. 3 – The Milwaukee Bucks need to keep the squad together as much as they can
The Milwaukee Bucks need to get back as many of their key pieces as possible, but the road there is uncertain, and there will be tough decisions they need to make along the way. The Milwaukee Bucks are projected to have a salary of $221 million for the 2023-24 season. This is $27 million over the salary cap, which basically means that they have no cap space to spend on free agents this offseason.
Khris Middleton is eligible to become an unrestricted free agent in 2023. He has a player option for the 2023-24 season, but there is a lot of interest in Middleton from other teams. Middleton could command a max contract in free agency, which would be worth $30 million or more per year.
One sign for optimism is that Middleton was supposedly included in the in-person meetings during the front office’s search for a new head coach. This could indicate that his future with the team is still secure.
Brook Lopez is also set to become an unrestricted free agent in 2023. He is coming off a season in which he averaged 19 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks per game for the Bucks. He shot 41.2 percent from 3-point range in a season where he completely revitalized his career. After looking like an aging shell of himself in past years, Lopez looked like a legitimate star for the Bucks post-back surgery with his dominant impact on both ends of the floor.
It is still too early to say where Middleton and Lopez will play in 2023-24. However, they’re certainly among the most sought-after free agents in the NBA, and they’re sure to have a lot of options outside of the Bucks. This is not to say that they’re the pieces the Bucks need to win a title, but the Bucks will need to bring them back if they want to get other assets back for them in return.
There are quite a number of free agents that general manager Jon Horst will need to decide on as well, and not all of them have a good chance of sticking around. Fifth-year point guard Jevon Carter has a $2.2 million player option to come back to the Milwaukee Bucks next season, which he has a chance to decline after pulling out the best year of his professional career.
Jevon Carter is likely testing his value in free agency, but if there’s any chance the Bucks can get him back, they should pounce on it. Carter was one of Milwaukee’s best two-way players on their roster this season, hard stop. Per PBP Stats, the Milwaukee Bucks gave up 110.4 points per 100 possessions with Jevon Carter playing, and 113.8 when he was on the bench. There’s no denying the impact he had on the team, particularly on the defensive end.
If Carter opts against exercising his player option, the Bucks stand to lose one of the best shooters and defenders on the Bucks roster. Jevon this season averaged eight points, 2.5 rebounds, and 2.4 assists per game while shooting 42.3 percent from the field and 42.1 percent from 3-point range. All year long, Carter was a key contributor off the bench for the Bucks, providing energy, defense, and hustle. He even showed he has what takes to start for the team a few times in place of the injured Khris Middleton.
The thing is, after two years of playing meaningful minutes in the regular season only to rack up DNPs in the postseason, it’s likely Carter will look to take his talents elsewhere. He had one of the best seasons of his career with the Bucks in 2022-23 but was often relegated to a bench role. It’s not difficult to imagine he will likely capitalize on his excellent play to command a bigger contract with another team in free agency.
Wesley Matthews was a key piece for the Bucks this season because of his defense and 3-point shooting. He posted below-average norms of 3.4 points and 2.2 rebounds per game and shot just 32 percent from 3-point range. But Matthews was a key contributor on the defensive end and was a driving force behind the Bucks’ top-10 defense this season.
Joe Ingles, too, was an important part of the Bucks’ offense, providing them with a reliable outside shooter and play connector. He shot 40.9 percent from 3-point range this season while averaging 3.3 assists per game. His shooting opened up the floor for Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday, His presence overall helped the Bucks create more space for their drives to the basket and gave them a more dynamic offense every time he stepped on the court. He also helped the Bucks move the ball more effectively. His playmaking was particularly important when Antetokounmpo and Holiday were double-teamed.
If the Bucks eventually lose these big names, they’ll have to be ready with contingency plans for their free agent replacements.
No. 4 – The Milwaukee Bucks need to shake up the system this offseason.
Technically, the Bucks have already done this with the firing of Mike Budenholzer. After years of playoff disappointment, it was simply time for a change, even despite the championship in 2021.
One reason new head coach Adrian Griffin would work out well is his history of developing wings. This might mean increased opportunities up and down the roster and could bode well for guys like MarJon Beauchamp and A.J. Green.
Griffin is also a better defensive coach. Though their personnel had more to do with it than their system, the Bucks’ defense was a major weakness in the playoffs because of how unadaptable it is. After years of strictly adhering to drop coverage, a new tactician at the helm might help the Bucks to improve their defense, which will be essential if they want to win a championship.
Terry Stotts, who just recently signed on to be one of Griffin’s lead assistants, has nearly 20 years of experience as an NBA head coach, including nine seasons with the Portland Trail Blazers. He has a winning record in the regular season and has made the playoffs eight times. This experience will be invaluable to Adrian Griffin, who is a first-time head coach.
Stotts has also long been known for his offensive-minded coaching style. He has a reputation for developing and utilizing shooters, and his teams have consistently ranked among the league leaders in scoring.
Shaking up the system also means committing to development for young guys moving forward. The Bucks desperately need youth, and this writer is of the opinion that they should use their pick in the upcoming draft to take on the most NBA-ready talent available.
If the Milwaukee Bucks can make these essential moves, they will be a contender again next season. They have a great core of players in Antetokounmpo, Middleton, and Holiday, and they have a good coach in Mike Budenholzer. With a few more pieces, the Bucks can be a championship team again.
There are no easy answers for this Bucks team moving forward, but whatever direction the Milwaukee Bucks go in, they’ll have to commit to it wholeheartedly.
Stay tuned for more Bucks analysis as the offseason begins.