Winning championships in the NBA is about who has the best player. If you can put the two best players on the basketball court, suddenly the calculus goes from favorable to overwhelming. You can win with a deep team against a solo superstar, but it’s hard; if you have two Top-10 players you’re suddenly inevitable. That’s the path the Milwaukee Bucks have embarked upon in trading for Damian Lillard.
The first few beats for most Bucks fans upon reading the tweet from Adrian Wojnarowski were disbelief and some squinting to verify it was actually Woj. Then stronger emotions rushed in, from shock to joy to triumph. Having a player like Damian Lillard on the team raises the ceiling for this franchise. It’s also a major move to keep a superstar like Giannis Antetokounmpo from looking for greener pastures.
The Bucks lost two starters in this trade
At some point in the euphoria, however, the actual details have to be dealt with. New head coach Adrian Griffin gets a shiny new toy to deploy, yes, but he also has to replace a second starter in Grayson Allen. Lineups that worked the past few years because of Holiday’s defense or Allen’s off-ball movement now have to be rethought. There will be two new starters, and a lot of new questions asked of the rest of the roster.
What will the starting lineup look like after the trade? And how will the Bucks build out the rest of the rotation? Do they have the players on the roster or are more moves still to be made? Let’s answer those questions the best that we can in the aftermath of a blockbuster deal.
Milwaukee Bucks: Starting lineup after Lillard trade
The Milwaukee Bucks have three starters from last season who are unlikely to come off the bench, and Damian Lillard is sure to start. Who will fill the final spot?
Point Guard: Damian Lillard
Lillard cannot replace the defense of Jrue Holiday, but on offense it’s hard to think of a better player to pair with Giannis Antetokounmpo. Defensive coaches will be staying up at night trying to find a way to stop that 1-2 punch.
Shooting Guard: Pat Connaughton
This is the most likely option for coach Adrian Griffin to replace Grayson Allen in the starting lineup. Connaughton is a veteran with a lot of Bucks DNA, and as a 35.9 percent 3-point shooter he won’t overly compromise the spacing. He is a solid defender and plus rebounder, but he also has never played starter minutes for an entire season.
If the Bucks want to replace Allen most directly, Malik Beasley is a new addition who can step into the lineup as an off-ball movement shooter. Another crazier idea (but a potential option for closing lineups) is to shift Khris Middleton up a spot and play big, with either Jae Crowder or Bobby Portis entering the lineup.
Small Forward: Khris Middleton
Middleton played just 33 games last season due to injuries, and the Bucks brought him off the bench for 14 of those games because of a minutes restriction. It’s hard to see the Bucks doing anything but starting Middleton, but they will almost certainly look to keep his minutes down.
Power Forward: Giannis Antetokounmpo
The two-time MVP must be ecstatic to have Damian Lillard join the team, a pairing he has mentioned before. He may not be as young as he was as he enters his age-29 season but he was still a Top-3 finisher for MVP last season and will be back for more.
Center: Brook Lopez
The secret to the lineup continues to be Brook Lopez, who nearly walked in free agency. His rim protection and size on defense paired with his shooting on offense are an underrated reason why the Bucks have been so successful in recent years.
Bucks rotation after the Lillard trade
The question of how the Bucks fill out the rotation behind the starters is now an open question as well. Not only did they swap out two rotation players for one, but Lillard’s on-ball shot creation is more potent than Jrue Holiday’s, which makes different lineups more viable; it also puts pressure on the Bucks to solve the defensive questions the trade opens up.
Bobby Portis is the biggest lock to play significant minutes off the bench as the backup to both Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo; he played 26 minutes per game last season and that number could even increase this year. Jae Crowder and Malik Beasley are very likely to play rotation minutes, at least during the regular season.
The bigger questions open up from there. Do the Bucks play Portis more at the 4, carving out minutes for Robin Lopez? Do AJ Green or Andre Jackson show enough in training camp and preseason to earn consistent roles? Is MarJon Beauchamp ready to roll? The Bucks have saved money by adding a plethora of second-round picks the past few years, but now the bill comes due; are those players ready to step up?
It’s also still possible the Bucks sign another free agent or two to fill out the rotation, or pull off a minor trade for a veteran. Could Kendrick Nunn or George Hill beef up the backcourt? What about Terence Davis or Austin Rivers on the wing? T.J. Warren or JaMychal Green in the frontcourt? The Bucks now have at least one roster spot to play with.
The hard work is done; now they figure out the best way to maximize their new superstar.