In their latest 2024 NBA Mock Draft, The Ringer has the Milwaukee Bucks selecting Zach Edey with the 25th overall pick. I believe this would be a mistake for the Bucks to use their first round pick on a player with limited upside at an important position.
Article author Kevin O'Connor sites Brook Lopez's age and the fact that his contract expires after the 2024-25 season as reasons to select a new big man.
While having a big man is useful in today's NBA, especially for defensive and rebounding purposes, two areas that Zach Edey can help in on the surface, I have strong concerns about what it would look like in practice to see Edey in a Bucks uniform.
Zach Edey would be a mistake for the Milwaukee Bucks: Defense
While Edey is averaging a career high 2.2 blocks per game this season, it is at the college level where the floor spacing is nowhere near what it is in the NBA. In the Big 10 (14 teams), there are only three teams who shoot above 36 percent from the 3-point line on average, and one of them is Edey's Purdue Boilermakers. In the NBA, there are 19 teams that shoot 36 percent or higher as a team.
For Edey to be a worthwhile selection, he would have to be at least serviceable at defending away from the basket. While the Milwaukee Bucks do currently operate a drop defense with Brook Lopez, there is a lot to be said for how Lopez defends in this way and the hope would have to be that Edey could learn that from Lopez in the one year before his contract is up.
O'Connor acknowledges himself in his report on Edey that he is a "limited defender when pulled away from the basket. He struggles to recover on pick-and-pops and often gets blown by on closeouts."
This is a major red flag being in the Eastern Conference that possesses players like Joel Embiid, who would feast on Edey away from the basket or dribbling towards it, or a player like Kristaps Porzingis, who has size and athleticism that Edey could not compete with. Even Bam Adebayo, who isn't a big 3-point shooter but has a very reliable mid-range jumper, could give him trouble. Not to mention Julius Randle and Myles Turner, who can both stretch the floor as big men.
Zach Edey would be a mistake for the Milwaukee Bucks: Offense
Zach Edey has game, there's no denying that. He averages 24.3 points per game on 61.9 percent field goal shooting and is also a pretty good free throw shooter for a guy his size at 71.8 percent. However, Edey has taken exactly two 3-point shots in his entire 131 game college career.
To be fair, Brook Lopez was not a 3-point shooter until the second act of his career and was a low post player when he was drafted. However, the Milwaukee Bucks are not in the stage of drafting and developing guys to be good three to five years from now. With Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo on this team, their championship window is open now.
The Milwaukee Bucks' offense, and Giannis in particular, thrive off being able to get to the rim, something that the 3-point acumen of Brook Lopez aids. The 7-foot-4 Zach Edey does not shoot, which will make it easier for opponents to clog the lane and slow down driving lanes not only for Giannis but for Lillard as well. Schematically, adding Edey to this Bucks team just doesn't make sense.
The other part of this as well is while Brook Lopez is slow, as is Edey, Lopez still presents a threat in transition as a trailing 3-point shooter. If Edey is trailing a fast break led by Giannis, he might as well just wait and stay back on defense, or he'll just be in the way.
Bottom line on Zach Edey and the Milwaukee Bucks
I do think it's possible that there is a team out there for Zach Edey, one where he can set up on the block and go at opposing big men who don't possess a strong defensive presence. Edey can also be a monster screener given his size and is a good rebounder and can score from the post. That team is not the Milwaukee Bucks though, his skill-set does not fit what the Bucks need from a big man.
The Bucks need an intelligent defender who can quarterback their defense. It's possible Edey could be that in the future, but I don't think he's ready to be the next Brook Lopez. They also need someone who, more importantly, can stretch the floor on offense. That 3-point ability is absolutely crucial to the Bucks' offensive gameplan night in and night out.
If the Milwaukee Bucks were to draft Zach Edey, it would almost be with the thought in mind that he and Giannis Antetokounmpo would almost never share the floor together, which is a mistake when the Bucks would be better served to draft a player with a more versatile skill-set to build alongside Antetokounmpo and help keep the Bucks championship window open longer.
The 2024 NBA Draft is scheduled for June 27, 2024, and it will be fascinating to see what the Milwaukee Bucks do.