Recently, Bleacher Report's Zach Buckley put out a list of trades every NBA team can make, listing a mock deal for each team that is supposed to be realistic. Some of the suggestions are more realistic than others, and his suggestion for the Milwaukee Bucks falls somewhere right in the middle of the spectrum.
The mock deal between the Bucks and Kings
The Milwaukee Bucks do have one open roster spot as it stands today, so they could potentially accept this deal without having to release any players. However, that spot may be valuable, should the Bucks be in on any remaining free agents that are still available, such as Gary Trent Jr.
Why is the author suggesting that the Milwaukee Bucks trade Bobby Portis for his 2015 draftmate Trey Lyles, Keon Ellis and a second-round pick? Mainly because they're looking for someone outside the Milwaukee Bucks' starting lineup with substantial value.
Buckley also suggests that because Trey Lyles shot just two percent lower on 3-point attempts (38.4 to Bobby's 40.7) that the Bucks could just insert Lyles into the same role while gaining some defensive flexibility, but is that really the case?
Comparing Bobby Portis to Trey Lyles by the numbers, thanks to Stathead, Lyles looks like a downgrade almost across the board entirely, and in the areas where Portis isn't better, the differences are negligible.
In 2023-24, Portis averaged 13.8 points and 7.4 rebounds on 50.8 field goal shooting, 40.7 3-point shooting and 79.0 percent free throw shooting. Trey Lyles last year averaged 7.2 points and 4.4 rebounds on 44.5 field goal shooting, 38.4 3-point shooting and 70.0 percent free throw shooting. To be fair, Portis played 4.5 more minutes per game and had an eight percent higher usage rate.
That said, what do the rest of the numbers say outside the averages? Let's break down this mock.
What would the Milwaukee Bucks gain in this potential deal?
The averages and percentages don't tell the full story, but the advanced stats don't do much more to suggest that the Bucks are upgrading here. Bobby Portis had a 115 offensive and 113 defensive rating per 100 possessions this past season, and Lyles had a 120 offensive and 116 defensive rating — negligible differences.
The true shooting numbers give Trey Lyles a slight advantage at 59.6 percent, with Portis at 58.1 percent. Offensive box plus/minus has Lyles at -0.4 and Portis at 0.0; for defensive box plus/minus Lyles was at -0.7 and Bobby at -0.8.
These numbers go to show that there really isn't a large incentive for the Bucks to make this trade, and that's before you consider the fact that Bobby Portis has been an ironman for the Bucks, playing 82 games last season while Lyles played only 58.
That's where Keon Ellis and the second round pick in 2025 come in.
Ellis isn't a household name, but what he brings to the household table could make this trade considerable from the Bucks' perspective. He is 6-foot-6 and was measured at the 2022 NBA Combine to have just shy of a 6-foot-9 wingspan.
In the combine notes about Ellis, it was said that while he was undersized (almost the exact same size as Bucks' recent draft pick AJ Johnson, who holds tons of potential), he makes up for it with "very impressive lateral quickness."
In college, Ellis transferred to Alabama before his junior season. While his junior season was relatively quiet, his senior season was fairly impressive and ended with Ellis making the All-SEC Defensive Team. Ellis' pre-draft notes are filled with sparkling notes on his defensive prowess.
In his two seasons with Sacramento, he has taken 180 3-pointers and made 76, coming in at 42.2 percent. Also, in those two seasons, Ellis' defensive rating is 113. Based on these facts and his pre-draft analysis, it's not hard to imagine Ellis fitting in as a 3-and-D addition to the Milwaukee Bucks' shooting guard room.
Lastly, add in that in this deal, the Sacramento Kings throw in a second-round pick, not their own, but a second round pick next year from the Portland Trail Blazers. The Blazers could very well be one of the worst teams in the NBA this upcoming season; they have some good young players but are far from contenders and are in a loaded Western Conference.
That second-round pick would likely be in the early 30s, so the Bucks could be in a position to draft their picks close together next year like they did for the 2024 NBA Draft, or they could use the pick in another deal.
Grade for Bucks: B+
What would the Sacramento Kings get from the Milwaukee Bucks?
As far as the Sacramento Kings' side of the deal goes, why would they be interested in giving up two players and an early second-round pick for Bobby Portis? Essentially, it would mean consolidating some depth to give them another Sixth Man of the Year candidate to go along with the one they already have in Malik Monk.
The Kings are in an arms race and are in danger of being left behind in the Western Conference with how good the likes of the Timberwolves, Thunder and Mavericks are. There are other teams that are going to be in that conversation, like the Suns and Lakers, not to mention the Spurs, who the Kings have already made a deal with this off-season.
This upgrade would cost the Kings one of their 3-and-D prospects, but the addition of DeMar DeRozan without having to give up Kevin Huerter means their wing depth isn't really in jeopardy, and there may not be a ton of playing time available for Ellis.
Having Bobby Portis coming off the bench with Malik Monk would give the Kings a pretty formidable top seven in their rotation and a very interesting big-man room of Keegan Murray, Bobby Portis and Domantas Sabonis.
The Kings would have a bunch of power forward/center tweener guys who can all shoot the ball and spread the floor. There can never be too many players like that on a team, and that could potentially open things up for De'Aaron Fox to use his speed and DeRozan to create his mid-range shots.
Grade for Kings: B+
The Verdict
This trade could help the Milwaukee Bucks possibly keep their window open a tiny bit longer by adding a player like Ellis, but Trey Lyles is a free agent at the conclusion of the 2024-25 season. Bobby Portis is under contract for 2024-25 and has a player option for the 2025-26 season.
The second-round pick, especially the fact that it's coming from a team that is likely to be picking in the top 10, maybe even top five of next year's draft, going from Sacramento to Milwaukee in the deal does make it enticing from the Milwaukee Bucks' perspective.
There is always the possibility that the Bucks flip Lyles in another deal with the second-round pick, but that's a lot of wheeling and dealing to ask of Jon Horst in a short period of time. All in all, this trade is interesting for the Milwaukee Bucks but doesn't move the needle enough to be an A grade.
As for the Kings, the thought of having two of last season's Sixth Man of the Year candidates on the same team does sound like a fun proposition, even more so when considering the fact that, on the surface, you're only giving up an expiring contract, a player you signed as an undrafted free agent to a two-way deal and a second-round pick.
Both teams could be okay with accepting this deal, but would either one be so excited that they would first offer it to the other? Probably not. This deal doesn't move the needle a ton for either team, so at the end of the day, this trade is basically just making a move for the sake of making a move, and there isn't a team that would come out as a clear winner.
It would be an interesting deal with Portis and several other Bucks being mentioned in trade rumors, but the odds of it happening are slim.
All in all, Bleacher Report has made some bad trade proposals from their publications over the last handful of years, but this isn't one of them. This trade can be made to make sense from both sides.