For the second straight season, the Milwaukee Bucks have a longer off-season than they hoped for after falling in the first-round of the NBA Playoffs.
Though free agency and trade season are still quite a ways away, it is never too early to start plotting and mapping out what changes may be on the horizon. On the free agent side of things, there are set to be five Milwaukee Bucks on the open market. That said, let us rank those free agents by just how likely they are to return to Milwaukee next season, starting from the least likely and going up.
No. 5 - Malik Beasley
The Milwaukee Bucks would likely welcome Beasley back, but they almost certainly will not have the spending money to outbid opposing teams. The reason Beasley played in Milwaukee in the first place was because he was willing to sign a team-friendly deal in an attempt to earn a bigger payday in the 2024 off-season. Someone will likely hand him a nice pay raise once free agency opens.
Outside shooting is a hot commodity in today's NBA, and Beasley is one of the best in the business in that regard. After a season in which he shot a career-high 41.3 percent from downtown, the two guard is going to be a high-demand player. Teams with cash, like the Orlando Magic or Toronto Raptors, may make a big offer to attain the guard's services. The Bucks just don't have the money to spend.
A player who may make Beasley expendable is AJ Green, who just wrapped up his sophomore year. Though his minutes were hardly consistent, the guard constantly showed glimpses of potential due to his sweet shooting and tough defense, both attributes that could make him valuable next season. Green could offer a low-cost alternative to Beasley, who would likely cost much more to retain.
No. 4 - Danilo Gallinari
It's difficult to imagine a world where Danilo Gallinari returns to the Milwaukee Bucks for another year. Although he showed glimpses of being able to help this team in the postseason, he certainly showed signs of decline coming off an ACL tear. At 35 years old, he's not getting any younger, and the Bucks need to find a way to get younger this off-season rather than continue building around veterans.
The only reason it shouldn't be ruled out entirely is the fact that Doc Rivers, Milwaukee's coach, has a close relationship with the forward. The Athletic's Eric Nehm (subscription required) reported that the idea of reuniting with Rivers was one of the reasons Gallinari opted to sign with the Bucks. If Rivers has any say in free-agent talks, perhaps he could make a pitch for the forward.
Still, it seems like even Rivers understands Milwaukee's need for youth and athleticism this summer, having addressed it in his exit interview with the media. Ultimately, that's the direction the Bucks should go in, as they desperately need to shake up the roster outside of the core and add players who can get out in transition and hustle. Gallinari just isn't that at this stage.
No. 3 - Jae Crowder
Many didn't think Jae Crowder would return to the Milwaukee Bucks last off-season, but he ended up back in the 414. Could it happen again? It's not impossible, but it seems even more unlikely than it did in 2023 for a handful of reasons.
Just like he did under Mike Budenholzer, Crowder skydived out of Doc Rivers' rotation as the season got into the later stages, having hardly played in the postseason. After two consecutive seasons of watching the big moments from the sidelines, it wouldn't be shocking at all to see Crowder bolt out the door once free agency opens to try and find greener pastures in terms of playing time.
Yet, just like last off-season, there is a chance he could return. Unlike Beasley, he's not expected to earn a massive raise, and he's likely looking at another minimum deal. If he's only getting offers in the minimum range, perhaps he would come back to Milwaukee, a place he talked about being excited to play due to his ties to Marquette when he first arrived.
Perhaps there's an itch to scratch regarding unfinished business after two turbulent years with the Milwaukee Bucks that featured him being traded there and three coaches.
On Milwaukee's end, it would be a very Bucks move to bring Crowder back due to their reliance on veteran players. Again, they need to have a focus on younger players, but at the bare minimum, he could serve as a savvy veteran voice and possibly help guide youngsters like MarJon Beauchamp, Andre Jackson Jr. and Chris Livingston.
Ultimately, it feels more likely that he will not be back with the Milwaukee Bucks next season.
No. 2 - Patrick Beverley
The Milwaukee Bucks traded for Patrick Beverley mid-season, and he worked his way up to become a very valuable starting guard. Now, he enters unrestricted free agency.
Although the team's focus should be youth, bringing back the 35-year-old would be a rare exception. Even at his age, Beverley showed that he could be a sparkplug, providing needed perimeter defense, outside shooting and veteran leadership. Those are all attributes the Milwaukee Bucks could use on the roster next season.
The question is what Beverley may be looking for financially. If he's fine with a minimum, which seems like a likely option, returning to Milwaukee seems like a logical move for both parties. Instead of going after cash, it seems like Beverley is more focused on chasing down his first title, and despite how the season concluded, the Milwaukee Bucks can still offer him a great opportunity to do that.
Having Beverley on the roster throughout training camp and to start the year after having a summer to further build his chemistry with his teammates could be a big difference compared to this season when he was just thrust into the lineup at the deadline. Long story short, it feels like Beverley and the Bucks could very well continue their partnership, but nothing is certain, of course.
No. 1 - Thanasis Antetokounmpo
Here comes the controversy, as is tradition whenever Thanasis Antetokounmpo's name gets brought up in these roster discussions.
As they have done over the past few seasons, the Milwaukee Bucks and Thanasis will likely come to terms on a minimum deal this off-season. Of all of the moves previously discussed, this one appears to be the most likely to happen. Now, that is under the current front office regime; if new personnel come aboard, things could get very interesting, though they very well could take the same approach.
On the cheapest deal possible, retaining Thanasis would not be the worst move. Some fans would groan with displeasure, but if it keeps the franchise superstar in Giannis Antetokounmpo happy, it's just something you do. This roster has plenty of other holes on it thatThanasis Antetokounmpo is not the team's biggest worry by any stretch.
To be clear, this is not entirely justifying the Bucks spending a roster spot with a player who has not cracked the rotation in his five years with the team. Yet, it's clear that off the court and on the team's sidelines, he's always engaged and does his part to fuel the other players. Fans might not get that, but Patrick Beverley, who is there with Thanasis every day, recently backed up that idea.
Stay tuned for more Milwaukee Bucks analysis.