We have reached the final week of the NBA regular season, and the playoffs are just around the corner. The Milwaukee Bucks, despite their recent struggles, still hold the second seed in the Eastern Conference and have clinched a playoff spot, but they are just one game ahead of the fourth seed and 1.5 games ahead of the fifth seed.
With the standings being so close, there still are several possible first-round matchups for the Bucks. In fact, there are still six potential teams the Bucks could face in the first round, according to PlayoffStatus.com. Here is a look at each of those teams, ranked from best possible to worst possible matchup for Milwaukee.
Best matchups for the Milwaukee Bucks
Orlando Magic
While the Bucks and Magic currently sit second and third, respectively, in the Eastern Conference standings, if either team slides in the last few games, they could see each other in the first round. This seems to be the most favorable potential first-round series for the Milwaukee Bucks.
The teams that mainly give the Bucks trouble are ones that push the pace and use a lot of player and ball movement offensively. Those who really punish defensive lapses and make opposing teams work hard on that end will likely give an older Bucks team some fits. These teams will typically rank high in fast break points, assist percentage, shortest time to shoot, and shortest time per touch.
Well, the Magic don't rank high in any of those. They are 27th in fast break points and 22nd in assist percentage, and they have the longest average time to shot and the second-longest time per touch. In short, they don't push the pace, and they don't move the ball a ton.
Orlando also doesn't have the type of high-scoring guards that could really punish the Bucks' lack of guard defense on the perimeter. They run mainly through their forwards in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, who the Bucks shouldn't have quite as difficult a job defending matchup-wise.
And while the Magic have had a very good season and are a team capable of beating the Bucks, a lot of their damage has come against mediocre or bad teams. They are 29-7 against teams with a losing record compared to just 17-25 against all other teams. The Bucks would have a major experience advantage in this matchup against a team that hasn't proven to be very good against the best competition this year.
New York Knicks
The Knicks are another potential first-round matchup with the Bucks, and they are a team that Milwaukee has faced five times already this season. The Bucks won the first three games of the season series, but the Knicks won the last two, including the game Sunday night in Milwaukee.
New York is certainly a dangerous team, and the Bucks would have their hands full with them in a first-round series, but there are a few reasons this is a fine first-round matchup for Milwaukee. The first is that New York plays a slower and more methodical style. They have the third-longest average time to shoot and the second-lowest assist percentage in the league, and they aren't a team the Bucks should have to worry about pushing the pace too much on them.
Second, the season-ending injury to Julius Randle definitely puts a dent in their scoring and rebounding, and it likely puts a cap on their ceiling. New York is just 17-15 in games without Randle this season. One of the tougher things about a matchup with the Knicks is that they are the number one offensive rebounding team in the league, but losing Randle definitely hurts that a bit.
Lastly, New York, like Orlando, has struggled against the best teams while feasting on bad teams all season. They are a ridiculous 27-5 against teams with a losing record and 19-27 in all other games. The Knicks are very good but haven't done enough against the best teams to show they are a serious contender.
Jalen Brunson would get his points in this series -- he has averaged a whopping 37.2 points in five games against Milwaukee this season -- but I think the Bucks would be fine with that. This would be a series where they make Brunson try to beat them alone, letting him get off a ton of contested midrange looks and believing that they can limit everyone else enough to win the series.
Decent matchups for the Milwaukee Bucks
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers sit in the middle of the chaos that is the Eastern Conference standings. They are currently in the fifth spot, just 1.5 games out of second but only two games ahead of the play-in. Cleveland technically could still finish anywhere from second in the East to eighth.
Milwaukee and Cleveland split the season series 2-2, and the Cavs have always presented a challenge for the Bucks with the defenders they have to throw at Giannis Antetokounmpo when healthy. Having two big bodies in Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley allows them to match the Bucks' size in Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez, which could force the Bucks into more outside shots.
Cleveland doesn't play particularly fast, with the ninth-longest average time to shoot, but they do move the ball well, ranking third in assist percentage. Donovan Mitchell is a potentially bad matchup, as he has averaged 30 points per game in four games against the Bucks this season.
Overall, the Cavs would not be the best matchup with their size, but they also wouldn't be the worst matchup. Like the teams already mentioned, they also have struggled against good teams all year, going 19-26 against teams at or above .500 and 27-7 against everyone else.
Miami Heat
While once again not having an overly impressive regular season, the Heat are always a scary team to face in the playoffs, as the Bucks know very well. Miami appears to be headed for a spot in the play-in tournament, meaning the Bucks would only face them if Milwaukee finishes as the two seed and the Heat win their first play-in game to get the seven seed.
Once again, there doesn't appear to be anything very threatening about this Heat team on paper. They are just 22nd in fast break points and have the second-longest average time to shot, so they don't push the pace a ton. And they are another team in the East that has feasted on below-average teams, going 26-9 against teams with a losing record and only 17-26 against everyone else.
But the problem with the Heat is that they are a postseason team. They have the best coach in the game in Erik Spoelstra, a playoff riser in Jimmy Butler, a defender capable of holding his own against any big in Bam Adebayo, and several shooters who can get red hot at any moment.
No matter how unimpressive they seem, this is a team that is hard to ever take lightly. The coaching advantage that Miami has is extremely scary in a playoff series, and of course, you can never count out Jimmy Butler.
Worst matchups for the Milwaukee Bucks
Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers recently got Joel Embiid back from injury and are now ready to make a playoff push, winning each of their last five games as they fight to get out of the play-in.
Looking at the stats, this doesn't seem to be a terrible matchup for the Bucks. Philadelphia doesn't play particularly fast, with the fourth-longest average time to shot, and they also don't move the ball a ton with a dominant player like Joel Embiid, ranking 26th in assist percentage. And they are yet another team in the East that has done their damage against the worst teams, as they have a 26-9 record against teams with a losing record compared to an 18-26 record against everyone else.
The Bucks are one of the teams best suited to face the Sixers with their pair of defenders to throw at him in Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo (Embiid has shot below 50 percent from the field in seven of his last ten games against Milwaukee), but that still doesn't make this a desirable first-round matchup.
The problem with facing the Sixers is largely just the top-end talent that they have. Tyrese Maxey is a very scary matchup against the Bucks' guard defenders with his quickness and shiftiness, and just from a talent perspective, this would be the most difficult team the Bucks could draw in the first round. Facing Maxey and Embiid in round one would feel like a pretty brutal draw, even with Embiid's consistent injury issues and playoff struggles.
Dealing with one of the best duos in the game, a coach like Nick Nurse and the foul baiting of Embiid is probably something that the Bucks would prefer to avoid in the first round.
Indiana Pacers
It is no secret that the Pacers have been a bad matchup for the Bucks this season. Indiana won four out of five games against the Bucks in the regular season, although all of those games came during the Adrian Griffin era. Milwaukee would definitely come into this matchup looking for some revenge.
This is certainly the most worrisome potential first-round series for the Bucks from a matchup perspective. Indiana plays fast (quickest average time to shot and fourth in fast break points) and moves the ball a lot (eighth in assist percentage). They have the shortest time per touch and the fourth fewest dribbles per touch, and they are the exact type of team the Bucks have struggled with all season. Overall, they have a very explosive offense, ranking second in the NBA in offensive rating.
Tyrese Haliburton is clearly a tough matchup for Milwaukee with his ability to create off the dribble and be a playmaker. Myles Turner has also given Brook Lopez some trouble with his mobility and floor spacing ability as a big man.
The Bucks shouldn't have too much trouble offensively in a playoff series against Indiana, as the Pacers rank 24th in defensive rating and allow the second most points in the paint in the league. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been dominant against them, averaging 42 points on 74 percent shooting in the five matchups this season, including a 64-point game in January. But the Bucks' defense would be at risk of being shredded by this elite, fast, high-powered Pacers offense.
Additionally, the Pacers are the only team in the East other than the Bucks and Celtics that has a winning record against teams .500 or better. They have played up to their competition many times this season and proven they can beat good teams, as they did four times against the Bucks.
The Bucks would be motivated against the Pacers and still should be expected to take care of business in a series against them, but Indiana definitely appears to be the worst matchup for them.