Brook Lopez has arguably been the most important player on the Milwaukee Bucks' defense since the day he arrived. Yes, Giannis Antetokounmpo has played better at times, but Lopez is the most important one, if that makes sense. He’s basically the system. But that system is now not as effective as it used to be.
Is Lopez the one to blame for that? Probably not. He’s not playing his best, but how could he when he’s been more helpless than ever. But, on the other hand, the drop coverage system is now really showing its cracks (which have always been there but have never been this big) and this might be the time for the Bucks to move on. And since that would mean trading Lopez, this might be a good time to break down the pros and cons of this idea.
The only real asset?
We’ll get to the reduced impact he's having this season in a bit, but let’s first focus on the market. Milwaukee needs a point of attack defender, but cannot offer an interesting trade package for it. That’s just how it is.
Bucks fans can talk themselves into a Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton, and or MarJon Beauchamp package, but let’s be real: What would any team want that for? They are valuable players, but it’s hard to see why a team would think they fit into their future better than a solid defender.
A package like that is unlikely to be the best offer, especially when names like Dejounte Murray are being put on the table. And we probably don’t need to go this far. Is that good enough to move the needle for Chicago or Brooklyn and get Alex Caruso or Dorian Finney-Smith? Doesn't seem so.
Lopez, on the other hand, is a proven defender and a solid shooter that, in a good context, can be a strong addition that teams might be intereseted in. This way, the Bucks could possibly add a solid perimeter defender and a backup center in return, filling the two biggest roster flaws. So, if the Bucks want to be relevant in the market (and they have to) Lopez could be the player to trade.
Is drop coverage dead?
Drop coverage has never been flawless. Mid-range shooters have been an issue for the Bucks for a while now, but this style is becoming less effective and it looks now that this team cannot be a reliable defense anymore. Why is that?
First of all, the floater is a weapon most guards use pretty effectively nowadays. And that’s a shot that the drop coverage kind of wants to live with, which you can’t anymore. And this isn't the case just against elite guards. A player like Tyus Jones has been a problem the two times Milwaukee has faced Washington this year, so imagine how a player like Tyrese Maxey could hurt this system.
This becomes more of a problem when your exterior defense gets weaker, as it’s the case. Jrue Holiday was great fighting screens and chasing players through them, giving the attacker less space to go with the floater or the mid-range, something that Beasly struggles with. So, if the Bucks don’t have a player that can shine in that specific task, Lopez is most times fighting a one versus two possession he just has no chance to stop. And then we’re back to the previous problem. Can you get that kind of player without trading Lopez? It's not easy.
That takes us to the current state of Lopez's defense. He’s shined as a rim protector in recent years, but while this season he is contesting more shots at the rim than he has ever done, he’s also doing it less effectively than ever. According to NBA.com, he contests 9.2 shots less than six feet away from the rim per game, beating his former record by a sizable number (the previous one was 8.1). But, at the same time, he’s just making those shots 8.5 percent less effective than they usually are, dropping under 10 percent from the first time since he got to Milwaukee, which is a pretty huge drop.
That gets even worse if we move further from the rim, where his impact is barely noticeable if it is at all.
How’s that? Well, he’s just being forced into harder situations. He doesn’t have the help he used to and he’s facing players who have mastered the kind of shot he struggles to defend. And again, this is not entirely his fault, probably not even mainly his fault. But this is the kind of defense that you have to play if you want Lopez to be your starting center. So if it's not working as well as it used to, maybe it’s time to get rid of it.
Playoffs-time issues
If you think this doesn’t look like such a worrisome matter, you might be right. The defense doesn't look that bad with the starting five on the court, and Doc Rivers could fix it a little bit. The problem is these facts could become really worrisome by the playoffs. Because Philadelphia and Boston, two teams Milwaukee will probably have to beat to get to the Finals, are terrible matchups for Lopez.
Celtics are the team to beat in the East, and they are because of their offense, which is mainly built on their shooting and the great spacing it provides. The key piece that masters that shooting and that spacing is Kristaps Porzingis as a stretch five.
Milwaukee played Boston pretty amazingly in the first half of their last game, but the pick & pop plays being lethal in a potential matchup is still something to worry about. There’s simply no way for Lopez to defend that play. He just cannot switch, because he cannot take down a player like Jaylen Brown 23 feet away from the basket, and he’s always going to be late to contest the Porzingis or Horford 3-pointer. And even if Porzingis is not having his best season as a shooter, you cannot live with that shot for an entire series.
Philadelphia isn’t a good matchup either, in this case because of Maxey's sheer speed. He’s insanely fast, which could be a problem in the transition game but also in the pick & roll. He has such a good touch that he will punish Lopez over and over if he drops and give him the floater, but will also overpass him and get a free layup if Lopez is too far away from the basket.
However, this is not such a strong case because of Embiid, who would probably have to be taken by Giannis Antetokounmpo the whole game if Lopez gets traded. More on that next.
Can Giannis be a full-time center?
A Lopez trade would most likely mean that Giannis Antetokounmpo would become the starting center because the point of this trade is getting a defensive-minded shooting guard or a small forward. Maybe the package could include a backup center, but it doesn't look like there's a scenario where it would make sense trading Lopez for another starting five. If this is done, Giannis is playing center. So we're force to asked ourselves one question, which is can he?
Well, he has and it has worked, so an easy answer would be yes. But it's not that easy because this change brings a lot of positives but also some question marks.
On one hand, defense would gain flexibility and switchability, which is big. Those Porzingis pick and pop and Maxey pick & roll plays change quite a bit if he's the one playing this position. He would also play closer to the rim, so he could make a better use of his intimidation. Opponent power forwards wouldn't get open threes, which has been a huge problem sometimes. And, since he's already the primary rebounder and a great shot blocker, the interior defense doesn't necessarily changes that much.
But there are some potential issues to consider. Giannis shines as a help defender; he's at he's best when he's roaming around and he wouldn't be able to freely do that anymore, because in this context he would be the primary and only rim protector. That means he couln't take some superstars like Jimmy Butler or Jayson Tatum either, because there wouldn't be another player in the lineup to match against Bam Adebayo or Porzingis respectively. He would be a little more handcuffed, which isn't flat out a bad thing but it's something to take into account.
However, the biggest potential flaw could appear against players like Joel Embiid or Nikola Jokic. It's not like Giannis cannot defend them. We've seen him do it in a very effective way. But those kind of matches require a physical sacrifice that he's not asked to do on every possesion when he plays power forward. He would be risking more contact (and more fouls), so he may struggle to be fully fresh as a scorer. And, despite being a key part of Bucks' defense, he's needed big time on offense too.
In short, there's a lot to be considered about this idea, and it looks like General Manager Jon Horst knows that. If Dejounte Murray rumors hold some truth, they mean to me that he’s thinking about something big, not just a Connaughton plus a second round pick trade.
And hey, if you don’t want to get rid of Brook Lopez, we can always shave Robin Lopez. Maybe nobody would notice.