In just a few short hours, the Milwaukee Bucks will host the Indiana Pacers to open the first-round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs.
This will be an interesting series. Though they Bucks are the higher seed, they are by no means the overwhelming favorites. Even outside of their current injury concerns, the Bucks have struggled to beat the Pacers this season, going just 1-4 against them. The Milwaukee Bucks will have a nice test right out of the gates to see what they are made of.
That said, let us look at three X-factors that could make or break the Bucks in this series.
Giannis Antetokounmpo's health
Obviously, this is the biggest one. Giannis Antetokounmpo went down recently in a match against the Boston Celtics, suffering what was thankfully nothing more than a calf strain. His status for the start of the series is reportedly in legitimate doubt, and it's unclear when he may be able to get back on the court. Obviously, that spells trouble for the Milwaukee Bucks.
Without Giannis, the Bucks are a different squad entirely. They have several household names in tow, but there are concerns that they may implode without their superstar against a team that has already had their number this season. If he misses the first game or two, the Bucks could find themselves in a hole very early, and digging themselves out of it would be a tall, though not impossible, task.
Even if Antetokounmpo does return, what percent of himself will he be? With an injury like this one, the team should not rush him back by any means. Calf injuries can get nasty if they are not properly treated, and the Milwaukee Bucks do not need this to become a bigger issue. Now, it's all about the waiting game.
Antetokounmpo has shown in the past that he's a gracious healer. Even with a significant injury like the one he suffered in 2021, he was still surprisingly back in time for the NBA Finals, having missed just two games prior to that. No two injuries are the same, but it's clear that he will do everything in his power to get back on the floor as soon as possible.
Could the Milwaukee Bucks survive if Antetokounmpo misses a game or two? Yes, but anything more could get foggy, especially with how the team has been slumping lately.
Patrick Beverley's defense
The Milwaukee Bucks traded for Patrick Beverley because they needed a defensive ace who was not afraid to take on tough matchups, just like one they will face in this series. Pacers budding superstar Tyrese Haliburton has played excellent basketball against Milwaukee this season, and the Bucks will have to slow him down to come out on top in this one. Beverley will likely get the call.
The Bucks did not have Beverley for any of their five matchups against Indiana this season. Instead, it was Malik Beasley guarding Haliburton more than any other player in the league this season. Across 117.2 partial possessions, the guard tallied 38 points and 13 assists on 16-of-29 (55.2 percent) field goal shooting, per NBA.com. Haliburton certainly got the better of that matchup.
Beverley is more defensive-minded than Beasley, so perhaps he could have better success at limiting the All-Star guard. If Beverley can provide his on-brand, intense defense and get Haliburton out of the game as much as possible, it would be a massive boost for Milwaukee. It will not be easy, but Beverley will be up for the challenge.
Doc Rivers' decision to move Beverley into the starting lineup could prove to be a stroke of genius if Beverley delivers defensively in this one.
Damian Lillard's production
With Giannis Antetokounmpo likely to miss some time, more pressure will fall onto the shoulders of Damian Lillard. Despite the playoffs nearing, Lillard still has failed to establish a groove this season, stringing together inconsistent performances. If that carries over into the postseason, it could spell doom for the shorthanded Milwaukee Bucks.
In eight games without Giannis this season, Lillard has upped his production, averaging 29.9 points, 7.6 assists and 4.3 rebounds per performance, according to StatMuse. The Milwaukee Bucks need those types of numbers, if not even better ones, from Lillard in this series to stay afloat if Giannis is going to miss some amount of time.
If Lillard comes out of the gates struggling like he did against the Orlando Magic in Milwaukee's final regular season game, the Bucks will be in immediate trouble. Khris Middleton is not exempt here, but the most pressure will fall on Lillard, who is the clear superstar. With no Giannis, Lillard will take the reigns on offense completely, flashing back to his Portland Trail Blazers playing days.
Even if and when Antetokounmpo returns, the Bucks still need Lillard's production to down this pesky Indiana Pacers team. When Lillard shoots above 50 percent this season, Milwaukee is 24-2. When he scores 30 or more, the Bucks are 17-3. The Milwaukee Bucks need these types of performances from their star guard to give them the best chance of winning.
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