Wake Forest big man John Collins was one of the most productive players in all of college basketball last year. Would he make a good pick for the Milwaukee Bucks in this year’s NBA Draft?
Who is John Collins?
Wake Forest didn’t receive much national attention this year, bowing out in the First Four of the NCAA tournament, but they rostered one of college basketball’s most productive players in John Collins.
A 6’10”, 225 pound power forward, Collins averaged 19.2 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks on just 26.6 minutes per game. His 35.9 PER led all college players who qualified for the leaderboard.
Although he was a sophomore in 2016-17, Collins still won’t be 20 years old until September.
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This makes him younger than at least three one-and-done players projected to go in the first round, and just slightly older than high-profile freshman like Lonzo Ball or De’Aaron Fox.
Posting a 29.9 percent usage rate, Collins was one of the only offensive options for a team that finished in the middle of the pack in the ACC.
This makes his efficiency (62 percent field goal percentage and 1.8 turnovers per game) all the more impressive.
That being said, questions about his game have been raised, most notably about his defense and ability to translate his craft to the NBA level.
To determine his worth as a prospect as well as his appeal to the Bucks, we’ll look at Collins’ strengths and weaknesses, as well as what the expert consensus says regarding his draft status.
Strengths
Diving into Collins’ gaudy scoring numbers (28.8 points per 40 minutes) reveals a couple main facets of his offensive game. For one, he used a ton of his possessions on post-ups, with 39.9 percent of his points coming in that department.
He displays quick footwork on the catch, not allowing the defense to collapse down on to him from the perimeter. Many of his moves involve him going over and through his defender rather than around them, which leads to him shooting 6.7 free throws per game.
Collins also uses his 37.5 inch max-vert and good hands to be an effective dive man in the pick-and-roll, scoring 1.61 points per possession in those instances. All told, he shot a whopping 69 percent at the rim.
He uses his foot speed and athleticism in transition, routinely beating his man down the court for run-out dunks and sealing off early post position. This should be attractive to the Bucks, who had the NBA’s fourth-best transition attack, according to Synergy.
Although he isn’t lengthy or particularly strong, Collins is also a gifted rebounder, taking in 14.8 boards per 40 minutes. He does his best work on the offensive glass, posting a 16.4 percent offensive rebound rate.
As we’ll get into, Collins’ defense leaves a lot to be desired, but his foot speed gives him the tools to one day be able to switch pick-and-rolls and execute a close-out-heavy defense scheme like the Bucks’.
Weaknesses
Offensively, Collins’ biggest problem adapting to the NBA is his lack of an outside shot. You can’t find many power forwards left that can’t stretch the floor out at least to the midrange, much less the three-point line.
He has shown a little touch from the mid-post area on turnaround jumpers, but hitting catch-and-shoot jumpers remains an unrealistic or at least untapped ability.
The other offensive issue Collins faced at Wake was his own shot selection. He tended to put his head down at times and force up shots over two or even three defenders, as evidenced by his dishing out only 17 assists the entire season.
One would hope that this was more a result of his teammates not being as skilled scorers, forcing Collins to take on a larger role. Perhaps in the NBA, he could downsize his usage into an even more efficient diet of shots.
Defensively is where most of the criticisms come into play. Collins isn’t thick enough to defend against legit size in the low post, which leads to him fouling frequently, at 4.5 fouls per 40 minutes.
This lack of bulk has also led to him struggling to score against longer opponents, especially considering his limited repertoire of moves.
A lack of defensive IQ is also a concerning occurrence on film, as Collins’ finds himself lost a lot in help situations. He also struggles in the pick-and-roll, particularly in terms of hedging.
His defensive issues aren’t so much inability as they are rawness, although he has a long way to go to even become competent on the point-preventing end.
What the Experts Say
(As of 6/1)
DraftExpress (Jonathan Givony): 18th
CBS Sports (Gary Parrish): 14th
The Ringer (Kevin O’Connor): 18th
Sporting News (Sam Vecenie): 13th
The Step Back (Chris Stone): 19th
In an interview with Vice Sports, Collins himself said he believes his game will translate well to the NBA.
"“The thing I can do that translates immediately is to use my energy offensively and defensively. Grab rebounds, making plays down on the floor. My ability to score near and around the basket. My ability to catch lobs and use my athleticism to the best of my ability. I can use that right now at the next level.”"
Josh Riddell of DraftExpress thinks that Collins has plenty of upside to go with the production he’s already displayed.
"“It’s hard to ignore the incredible productivity Collins put up as a very young, late-blooming sophomore, and there is undoubtedly plenty of potential to continue to harness long-term.”"
Fit With the Bucks
As the Bucks are still without a general manager at the time of writing, we have no real way of knowing the direction the franchise will take in the draft. However, if Milwaukee defaults to precedent, Collins doesn’t fit the description of their prototypical rookie.
He’s not as long or potentially transcendent as past draftees, what with his shorter wingspan and lower perceived ceiling. However, Collins could still find a spot on the Bucks in the mold of one of their current players.
Greg Monroe reinvented himself into being a dynamic bench scorer this season, using 30 percent of his possessions in the post and putting up career-highs in field goal percentage and points per 36 minutes.
He often commanded the Bucks’ offense while Giannis Antetokounmpo was off the floor, leading an improved bench unit. It’s possible Collins could take over this role if Monroe leaves the team in the next couple years.
He moves quickly when he gets the ball on the block, which could keep opponents from doubling him if he plays next to a traditional center.
In the short term, Collins would need to contend with a crowded frontcourt, leaving little room for his own development. Of course, there’s a lot left to be shaken out regarding the status of Monroe, Spencer Hawes, and others, but the reality is that Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker, and Mirza Teletovic would all be ahead of him on the depth chart.
Down the road, Thon Maker could make a good frontcourt mate for Collins as he can stretch the floor, switch on to guards, and protect the rim, making up for the latter’s deficiencies.
Next: NBA Draft 2017 Prospect Watch: Dennis Smith Jr.
John Collins could bring a lot to his new NBA team. Whether or not his skills will translate over to the modern league will likely determine whether or not the Milwaukee Bucks draft him.