It’s been over four years now since Jon Horst was promoted to general manager by the Milwaukee Bucks in June of 2017.
Since then, of course, the Bucks have gone on to have their most successful stretch of years in decades, culminating with an NBA championship. For a GM to take a team and turn it into a championship contender, they had to do a lot of things right. But there are also going to be a lot of bumps along the way. Many have questioned some of Horst’s decisions in his four years running the Bucks, but there has also been a lot of praise along the way as well; mainly his NBA Executive of the Year award win following the 2018-19 season.
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No player, coach, general manager, executive, etc., is going to be perfect, and there will always be a move or two (or more) that fans and media will look back on and say they should have done something differently.
So let’s review Horst’s process to winning an NBA championship and grade his success in the three main areas of a general manager’s job: drafting, free agency, and trades.
Most general managers have a strong point in those three categories and an obvious weak point, and Horst is no exception.
One move that isn’t in that group was the hiring of Mike Budenholzer. Although many have their opinions on Budenholzer, there’s no question he’s the best head coach the Bucks have had in a long, long time — even prior to the championship.
There have been a lot of moves in Horst’s tenure to work through, so let’s start to unpack.
Reviewing Jon Horst’s record at the draft in his Milwaukee Bucks tenure
Not to spoil too much, but this is easily Jon Horst’s biggest weak point as a general manager through his four years as Bucks GM.
Since the 2017 NBA Draft, here are his draft picks in order:
- D.J. Wilson (2017 1st round, 17th overall)
- Sterling Brown (2017 2nd round, 46th overall; acquired from Philadelphia)
- Donte DiVincenzo (2018 1st round, 17th overall)
- Jordan Nwora (2020 2nd round, 45th overall)
- Sam Merrill (2020 2nd round, 60th overall; acquired from New Orleans)
- Sandro Mamukelashvili (2021 2nd round, 54th overall; acquired from Indiana)
- Georgios Kalaitzakis (2021 2nd round, 60th overall; acquired from Indiana)
DiVincenzo is pretty clearly the best player of this group, and it’s not particularly close, as I’m sure most people would agree. After that, it’s probably Brown, who found relative success with the Houston Rockets last season and is now with the Dallas Mavericks.
Looking back at the 2017 NBA Draft, there were a few players taken after Wilson, who you’d rather have seen the Bucks select. John Collins was taken two picks later, Jarrett Allen was taken five picks later, and OG Anunoby was taken six picks later. Obviously, hindsight is 20/20, but even at the time, people were surprised by the selection.
I would say Brown was a solid pick looking back on it, with only Monte Morris of the Denver Nuggets being a discernably better player taken after him.
In Horst’s defense, Wilson and DiVincenzo are the Bucks’ only two first round picks in his tenure, so he hasn’t had a ton of opportunities to show his full drafting prowess. They did have a first round pick in 2019 but used it to trade Tony Snell’s contract, a first in 2020 but used it in the Jrue Holiday trade, and exchanged their 31st overall selection in 2021 for four additional second round picks, two of which they used in the Grayson Allen trade.
The Bucks do own their 2022 first round pick, and I’m hoping Horst actually uses the pick to select a player. Milwaukee is obviously in win-now mode, but having young, cheap, and productive players is the best way a team can maximize their window.
Reviewing Jon Horst’s record in free agency in his Milwaukee Bucks tenure
As is the case with most general managers, there are some solid hits for Horst, but there have also been a few misses as general manager of the Bucks.
Let’s start with probably his biggest hit in free agency: Brook Lopez. In 2018, Horst signed Lopez to a one-year, $3.38 million contract. Lopez has since become a core piece of the Bucks’ success both offensively and defensively. He has fit perfectly with Giannis Antetokounmpo and has become one of the league’s best rim protectors.
Beyond Lopez, I think Horst has done well in signing Pat Connaughton; who has become an incredibly valuable reserve in the Horst-and-Mike Budenholzer Era, Bobby Portis; another valuable reserve who is in his prime ages, and even signing veterans like Wesley Matthews and Jason Terry were valuable in their short time.
He has also done relatively well in re-signing players and keeping them with the Bucks, such as Lopez and Portis but also signing Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton to extensions. You can quibble with the value of Middleton’s contract, but they’re better off with him than without him. And getting Antetokounmpo to sign his supermax might be Horst’s biggest win overall.
On the other end, though, there have been some rough moments. In terms of bringing in outside players, the D.J. Augustin signing was probably Horst’s worst thus far. He saved himself by moving on from Augustin without having to give up too much and acquired P.J. Tucker, who was then not re-signed by Horst.
That leads me to Horst’s biggest miss in free agency, and that is the infamous decision to let Malcolm Brogdon walk in a sign-and-trade to the Indiana Pacers. It’s a debate whether it was actually ownership who decided they couldn’t bring Brogdon back (similar to Tucker), but it’s still a move that is on Horst’s record as general manager.
Reviewing Jon Horst’s record in trades in his Milwaukee Bucks tenure
Trades are always hard to judge in the short term, especially when draft picks are involved because we’ll only ever know the full scope of the trade when the players and picks have given us a larger sample. The Bucks have made quite a few dealings since Horst took over.
Horst’s first big trade acquisition was Eric Bledsoe for Greg Monroe and a first round pick (which turned into Desmond Bane). Bledsoe is known for his disappointing playoff performances as a Buck, but this is an obvious win. Monroe only played one more season after being traded from Milwaukee, and Bledsoe was a two-time All-Defense Team selection.
His next big move was dumping the bloated contracts of John Henson and Matthew Dellavedova, as well as a 2022 first round pick (which the Bucks have now got back) in exchange for George Hill. There was more minutiae in the deal, but those were the main parts. You’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who thinks this is a bad trade. They got off two bad contracts, and Hill became a vital reserve for the team backing up Bledsoe.
Then there was trading Jason Smith (acquired in the Hill trade) and four second round picks for Nikola Mirotic at the trade deadline in 2019. It wasn’t a huge price to pay for Mirotic, but he ended up being pretty underwhelming in his short time with the Bucks. I can’t call it a loss since none of the second rounders have been incredible (one is Sam Merrill!), but it’s not an overwhelming win either.
Horst’s worst trades are trading Tony Snell and the 30th overall pick in 2019 (Kevin Porter Jr.) for Jon Leuer, a pure salary cap dump of Snell’s contract (which Horst signed), and Brogdon to the Pacers for a 2020 first and two future protected seconds.
Porter had his off-court issues but has also shown incredible flashes in his two seasons, so it’s unfortunate to see that they had to give away that pick because of a contract Horst signed. The Brogdon trade doesn’t look as bad because the first round pick was used in a bigger trade later on, but having Brogdon would be nice!
More recently, Horst has acquired Holiday, Tucker, and Allen in trades. The Holiday trade is the hardest to gauge due to all the draft picks surrendered, but he was instrumental in winning the title. Tucker’s acquisition cost was relatively low, and they got off the Augustin contract, but we’ll see how the draft picks turn out. Allen is undecided since, well, he has yet to play a game, but it looks like a good deal on the surface right now.
All in all, I think you have to say Jon Horst has had a pretty successful tenure as Bucks general manager.
I would be remiss, however, if I didn’t mention the Bogdan Bogdanovic debacle last offseason. It was something that looked very embarrassing for the Bucks after they thought they’d acquired another impact player along with Holiday, but the deal fell apart due to a number of issues. It’s probably the biggest stain on Horst’s record as general manager.
Obviously, there are some misses in both free agency and in trades, but I’d say the hits have outweighed the misses for the most part. My biggest criticism is that he hasn’t had many hits in the draft, which in part comes from not having the capital to do so due to his many trades.
Additionally, the lack of young, controllable players is concerning, but they’ve done well to add prime-age players in Portis and Allen to help minimize that.
We may look back on some of his recent trades, namely the Holiday deal, as one that could backfire with so many future draft picks involved. But at the end of the day, it brought a championship to the organization. That doesn’t mean we can ignore Horst’s mistakes, but it makes them easier to swallow. The process overall was there, and it led to the ultimate result.
I think this past offseason was Horst’s best. He had limited flexibility and arguably made the Bucks a better overall team by adding key depth pieces to their bench. Of course, this opinion could change by the middle of the season, but for now, this looks like his best work yet.
BTBP Final Grade: A-
Time will tell what else Horst has in store for the Bucks.