“Win-now” Grade: B-
Long-term vision grade: D-
Best part of the trade: Redick will immediately improve a Bucks team that lacks efficient scorers.
Worst part of the trade: Harris and Lamb have long-term potential. Redick, Ayon and Smith don’t.
Analysis: Win [Fight for the eighth seed] now; worry about the future later. That seems to be the mindset of the Bucks’ brass yet again. As a result, and for sake of brevity, I’ll analyze the trade on a “win now” basis (i.e., let’s talk Redick).
Milwaukee received the best player in the trade. Of course, the catch is that the 28-year-old Redick will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, which means the Bucks are likely just renting his services for a few months. Nonetheless, his efficient scoring – first and foremost – will be a welcome addition to Milwaukee’s backcourt.
Redick is shooting an impressive 47.1 percent in spot-up situations this season, according to Synergy, which results in 1.27 points per possession. That mark ranks 14th in the NBA. Conversely, Jennings (36.8 percent, .98 ppp) and Ellis (34.1 percent, .84 ppp) have struggled with their spot-up shooting all season. Beno Udrih, whom Redick replaces as the third rotational guard, was never a sharpshooting threat from the perimeter, either. Udrih converted just 39 percent of his spot-up shots (.88 ppp) and 26.5 percent of his three-point attempts year.
So, in short, Redick is very, very good at what he does – and that’s score efficiently:
Players averaging more pts/min on higher TS% than Redick: KD, LeBron, Harden, Parker, Amar’e, Bosh, Kevin Martin, Chris Paul.
— Evan Dunlap (@BQRMagic) February 20, 2013
If you narrow that list to players w/ more pts/min than Redick, higher TS%, higher AST rate, it’s LeBron, Harden, Tony Parker, Chris Paul.
— Evan Dunlap (@BQRMagic) February 20, 2013
Redick’s underrated perimeter defense and passing skills will also compliment Milwaukee’s roster quite nicely. As Grantland’s Zach Lowe said on Twitter, the more minutes coach Jim Boylan transfers from Ellis to Redick, the better. Ellis made it very clear in October, however, that he wouldn’t be receptive to a sixth-man role, which better suits his skill set.
“I don’t believe that,” Ellis told Charles Gardner of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. “People are entitled to their own opinion. If you put me on a team with a whole bunch of guys, I guarantee you I’m going to win that starting position no matter who it is.”
Even if Ellis remains in the starting lineup, it will be interesting to see how he reacts to a decreased role on the team
Best part of the trade: Floor spacing due to SUCCESSFUL THREE-POINT ATTEMPTS
Worst part of the trade: Two months of J.J. before a possible split
Analysis: The new sharpshooter and Mike Dunleavy will make defenses respect the Bucks’ perimeter shooting, but it doesn’t fix Brandon Jennings’ problem finishing at the rim. J.J. is a better option at the two than Monta Ellis, but the Bucks may be without both after this summer. If Redick stays, though, he’s a great piece for the future.
Best part of the trade: Receiving another shooter in Redick; Possibility of fewer minutes for Monta
Worst part of the trade: Trading two young promising players for an expiring contract
Analysis: While I am excited about getting a solid player like Redick, I’m also a little sad to see all these players leave. While both Tobias and Doron really never shined with the team, I still would’ve liked to see how they would progress as players. Yes, Redick is an expiring contract, but I’m optimistic that he’ll be extended in the off-season because he’ll be be promised a starting spot with the departure of Ellis.
Best part of the trade: Getting another offense weapon to spread the floor
Worst part of the trade: Losing Tobias Harris, who looked to have decent potential
Analysis: Kudos to John Hammond for not giving up the Bucks’ first-round pick in this deal. However, losing Tobias Harris stings a bit, especially if he ends up blossoming in to a capable NBA starter in Orlando. Even though both Harris and Doron Lamb looked good in the Vegas Summer League, there must have been a reason neither Skiles or Boylan gave either any significant playing time.
In this trade the Bucks acquire an efficient, lethal sharpshooter in J.J. Redick. The component of this deal that intrigues me most is the potential a Jennings-Redick-Dunleavy-
Best part of the trade: Finally having a shooting guard who can make a three-point shot
Worst part of the trade: Giving up Tobias Harris; Redick conundrum
Tobias Harris is a 20-year-old with the body of a power forward, the feet of a small forward, and a knack for putting the ball in the hoop. The Bucks gave up on him way too soon; in fact, they gave up on him too soon this season. The Bucks. Through the first 11 games of the season — games that Harris all started — Tobias was converting 57% of his shots, and the Bucks were 7-4 despite the fact that the Bucks were then playing with Demonic Ersan Ilyasova at the other forward spot.
Then Harris had a bad week, got benched, and was never heard from again. He never got to play with Good Ersan spacing the floor for him. It would have been a sight to see. His development will likely nag at Bucks fans for years.
The obvious problem with the trade is that the Bucks now have to avoid 1) overpaying Redick and 2) letting Redick bolt at the end of the season. Not only do you and I know this fact, but so too does Redick’s agent, Arn Tellem. From Yahoo! Sports:
Sources say Redick’s agent, Arn Tellem, will likely start the bidding at four years, $40 million for Redick on the free-agent market.
Redick won’t get that kind of a deal, but teams with interest in the guard tell Yahoo! Sports they could be willing to pay him in the range of $7 million annually.
If the Bucks can keep Redick at $7 million per season, that would be great. If not, then watch out. This trade could really backfire.