Milwaukee Bucks Roundtable: 2014-15 Regular Season Expectations
By Joe Dexter
The 2014-15 regular season is officially here. When the lights shine bright on the Milwaukee Bucks for the first time tonight, there will be a lot of excitement. What is the staff at Behind the Buck Pass looking forward to this season?
We let you in our expectations for the 2014-15 season in this edition of the BTBP Roundtable.
What are realistic expectations for Bucks fans this season? Should fans consider wins and losses when factoring in success for this team?
Nick Dorey: There is no question this team will improve from its 15-win mark from last season. With their core of young players that are improving and the addition of 2nd overall pick Jabari Parker, I think this team will win around 25 games.
However, if Parker plays at a high level, Giannis figures out how to use his unlimited abilities more consistently, Sanders stays healthy and plays to the level he’s capable of, this team could easily reach 30 wins. With all that being said, wins and losses will not be the measuring stick for success this season. If we can see a noticeable improvement from all of our young players, this season will be a huge success.
Seth Jovaag: Last I checked the Vegas odds are 24.5 wins. I’ve wavered on this. The East is better but is still the JV to the Western Conference’s Varsity. So, can the Bucks make hay against bad-to-average conference foes?
I think they can … sort of. I’m guessing 26 wins. That’s 11 better than last year, but still pretty bad. The good news: it shouldn’t matter much to the fans. This year is all about the Jabari-Giannis mojo, mixed with Jason Kidd’s star power and the dash of hope that comes from a bunch of young role players looking to prove they can be valued veterans (read: “mega-rich dudes”) with long NBA careers. Stay hungry, stay fed, my young Bucks, and we will all be happy to cheer, even when you miss the playoffs in a weak conference.
Joe Dexter: I see this team winning 25 games, but when you have a coach like Jason Kidd, it could sway either way. The one thing that you can guarantee is that Kidd will roll the dice in close games. He is willing to gamble to win and that could mean winning games they shouldn’t and losing games that they shouldn’t.
More important to me than wins is seeing moments of growth throughout the season for Larry Sanders, Jabari Parker and Giannis Antetokounmpo. These are the guys that are part of the future of this team. I want to see them grow together and become a formidable unit together.
How does Jason Kidd’s approach to coaching this team effect how they play? Do you buy into the fact that he is the coach that can help them develop into potential contenders down the road?
Jovagg: This is tricky. Kidd was a laughing stock less than 10 months ago, when it looked like he was allergic to in-game huddles. And then the Nets got much better, Kidd notched two coach-of-the-month honors and his team grinded out a 7-game playoff series over the gritty Raptors. Kidd seemed to grow into the job, and the idea that the former coach-on-the-court point guard could be a sideline general seemed feasible.
Then, just like that, he gave the finger to Brooklyn and came to … Milwaukee. Four months later, I still can’t believe that sentence is real.
The fact is, Kidd’s in an ideal spot. A small-market team with low short-term expectations and high long-term potential takes the pressure off. Giannis and Jabari seem as eager to play as border collies being dropped off at the dog park, which should extend the honeymoon period for fans until at least February. And here’s the thing: just having Jason Kidd in Milwaukee is a BIG DEAL, even if he’s just an OK coach. I think a young team will listen to what the future HOF’er has to say, and based on what he did late last season, I think he’s got the coaching chops, yet – and this is key – still has a lot to prove. So I’m buying J-Kidd stock, even though part of me wonders if the MIA huddle master will return.
Dorey: The transition game is going to be a big part of how the Bucks play this year because of having tall wing players that can get rebounds and handle the ball in transition. Jason Kidd is going to help the Bucks immensely as head coach. The way he will be able to help our guards learn and develop will be a great asset going forward and a huge help in developing the team into a potential contender.
Dexter: There is going to be a point of the season when fans and media question what Jason Kidd is doing. Yet, I don’t think there is a basketball mind out there that is as perfect for this roster as Kidd is. Instead of being a coach, he is going to be looked upon as the 16th man of this team. He’s an unsung leader that has been there before. He has a group of guys that are hungry to learn how to win in this league.
And most importantly, he is going to have the freedom to be as unconventional as he wants.
Jason Kidd might not be the perfect NBA coach but he is the perfect fit for the Milwaukee Bucks.
Is there any way Jabari Parker doesn’t win Rookie of the Year? What do you project from him during his rookie season?
Dorey: I think the only way Jabari Parker doesn’t win Rookie of the Year is if he gets injured. His NBA ready skill set combined with the fact that he will be a go-to scorer for the Bucks will be unmatched by any other rookie. I think he could easily be an 18 point, 9 rebound guy this season and run away with the trophy. My only concern is the possibility of him becoming a low percentage volume shooter, but in that case he’s still scoring a lot of points.
Jovaag: Based on the preseason, Jabari will carry a big scoring load for this team, which makes his ROY award seem like a lock. The only caveat – this year’s rookie class is deep, and chances are somebody else could end up racking up big minutes, too. Example: with Oladipo missing time in Orlando, I could see Elfrid Payton and his sweet hairdo dishing dimes and dropping the occasional 25 points this fall. If Kobe gets hurt again, Julius Randle could find himself chucking 18 shots a night. As for the overall No. 1, I’m sure Andrew Wiggins will get a lot of highlight alley-oops in Minnesota, but the knocks against his competitive fire on the offensive end seem merited. He needs more time.
So yes, I think Milwaukee’s favorite Mormon (seriously, can someone come up with an LDS nickname for Jabari, stat?) is poised for a big year. He’s got an NBA-ready game and a team that will need him to take over at times.
Your ROY for 2014-15: Jabari “Stormin’ Mormon” Parker (Seriously. New nickname. Anyone?).
Dexter: That nickname has more ring to it than a clanked Ricky Rubio jumper. I like it about as much as I do the chances of Parker winning ROY. I think we are going to have a closer race than people though. There are six or more rookies that are going to see legitimate time on the floor.
Elfrid Payton proved last night that he is always going to be on the radar. He’s the first rookie point guard to start on opening night for a reason. He will have some mismatches this season that allow him to stand out as the best player on the court.
Nerlens Noel will also stay in the conversation because he will make defensive highlights that keep him in the national spotlight all season. I think he’ll also have offensive nights that surprise NBA fans, because he just has a knack for scoring, even if it isn’t pretty.
Andrew Wiggins is going to play every night like Jabari Parker. I think people are writing him off simply because he lacked consistency in Bill Self’s offense at Kansas. The reason he had so much trouble because the offense wasn’t tailored around him like it will be in Minnesota.
Jabari Parker though brings the best all-around game and is going to be the most consistent rookie this year. And as we’ve seen this preseason, he has an ability to put together highlight plays. I’m looking forward to seeing his game develop throughout the year.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the favorites to win most improved player of the year. What does he need to improve heading into his second season with the Bucks?
Jovaag: Finding an NBA precedent for Giannis is like trying to recall another comet besides Halley’s. Yes, he’s built like Durant, but can we just stop with that? Durant is a whole different level of freak.
Still, I’ll try. Provided he adds some muscle, Giannis could be that long, rangy defender who attacks the rim with either hand and does “the little things” to win games. This analogy is wrong in about a zillion ways, but… Scottie Pippen anyone?
Consider: in his rookie year, Scottie’s slash line per 100 possessions was as follows:
19 points / 5.2 assists / 9.1 rebounds / 2.8 steals/ 1.6 blocks / 4 turnovers
Here’s Giannis’:
14.5 point / 4.1 assists / 9.3 rebounds / 1.7 steals / 1.7 blocks / 3.4 turnovers
Not bad, eh? Of course, rookie Pippen was 22 years old and had four years under his belt at the roundball powerhouse of the University of Central Arkansas (Go Bears!). In his second year, Pippen naturally got better, launching his crazy Robin-to-Jordan’s-Batman career. At age 19, could Giannis make a similar leap?
I’m not saying Giannis will ever be like Scottie. But at the end of the day, Year 2 Giannis just needs to do all the things pros do over time: rein in the turnovers, improve his shooting touch, get to the rim more often. He’s given every indication he’ll work at all those things and smile while doing it. Which is awesome. At this point, I think all he needs is time and the gentle, warm hands of Jason Kidd patting him on the shoulder when he occasionally turns the ball over twice as much as he scores. Go get ‘em, Giannis. The world awaits your uniqueness.
Dexter: The Pride of the South Side needs a Pippen to run with in Milwaukee doesn’t he? I think the one thing that is underrated about Antetokounmpo is that he is willing to take on whatever role is put in front of him by this coaching staff. There are a lot of young players that have no idea what there role is going to be in the future. They either fade from this league, or build up their game to the level that makes them valuable.
The Greek Freak is a unique talent. The key for him to blossom though will be developing the small parts of the game that youngsters aren’t worried about. Once he understands spacing better, where to be on the floor defensively and starts defining his offensive game through his understanding of where he is on the floor and what the defensive is giving him.
Some players just figure it out. The only magic elixir that will work is spending plenty of time on the court.
Dorey: Giannis needs to find his identity. He is a guy that can do everything, but he won’t realize his potential until he finds his comfort zone with the team. What position is he? Is he a shooter? Is he a slasher? Is he a dimer? Who does he defend? These questions need to be answered for us to have any idea of how effective he can be going forward.
Larry Sanders has proven that he can be a dominant force in this league. Can he reclaim that this year?
Jovaag: Oh, Larry. In my ideal world, you would revert into a double-double machine who designs super-fly skateboards in his spare time. If there’s a dash of Rasheed Wallace or Dennis Rodman in his game that inspires a mock thumbs-up the refs who toss him for the occasional rogue elbow, that’s OK! Hell, the Bradley Center needs that kind of juice.
But please, Larry, remember this: Rodman didn’t go totally North Korea until AFTER he’d dominated the glass for a dozen years (well, minus his time with the Spurs). Channel the insanity between the lines, and you could be a force for NBA good. We would love you. You know this. Just breathe deep. Tuck yourself into bed by midnight. Then go scare the hell out of opposing big men.
Unfortunately, here’s my prediction: this season we’ll see some more Jekyll and Hyde from Mr. Sanders. Half the games, we’ll get Old Larry, whose manic energy will be a Jolt soda for a young, already-hyper-kinetic team. But the other half won’t be pretty. Bucks fans will grow restless, then resentful. $44 million over four years brings high expectations, after all.
Prove me wrong, Larry! We want to love you so darn bad.
Dexter: The only thing that will be tucking Larry Sanders in at midnight is… the stat sheet he’s stuffing earlier in the evening. You’d be crazy as a fan to really believe that the real Larry Legend is going to be 100% committed to being the best basketball player he can be. He is still going to have fun.
He’s still going to wear a suit and sunglasses to the arena some nights because of it.
But look, there is no reason not to believe that he cant have career numbers. As I mentioned in my prediction post yesterday — I believe he’s going to average a double double this season. Kendall Marshall is going to benefit because of his pick and roll dunk game. Jabari Parker is going to see open looks because of how well he clogs the lane.
I still think there will be some growing pains with Sanders. Hopefully Jason Kidd can help build him up though and give him confidence that leads him to take his game to the next level.
Dorey: I truly think that this will be his best season yet. He learned his lesson last year and is past his injuries. I’m expecting him to be the dominant low post defender and rebounder he was 2 years ago with an improved offensive game.
Brandon Knight believes he’s a point guard. Jason Kidd seems to believe so too. Does he have the intangibles to lead this squad?
Jovaag: I think he does. Nobody should expect nine assists per game with Knight, nor should they expect a high-volume scorer. Though he only turns 23 in December, we’ve seen enough to realize he won’t be an elite PG. But with this team – assuming Giannis/Jabari/OJ/Ersan and the rest can occasionally hit some outside shots – he’s just got to be “solid,” not spectacular. Which he is. At the very least, I think Bucks fans know this: he’s better for this team than “that other Brandon” in Detroit. For which we should all be thankful.
Dorey: I think Brandon Knight is a point guard. He showed the ability to distribute the ball last season and his assist numbers would have been much higher if he was passing to players that shot a higher percentage. With the improved roster we have this year, Knight’s numbers should go up. He just needs to avoid becoming Brandon Jennings 2.0.
Dexter: I think he is going to find himself in the same grouping as Eric Bledsoe, Isaiah Thomas, and the many other combo guards in the league. I’m also not buying that he is part of the future of this team. Brandon Knight is going to be a serviceable player in this league for a long time.
I just don’t see it working though in Jason Kidd’s system.
Kidd is a traditional point guard who values having a guy that can run the show with confidence. There is a reason that the Bucks brought in both Kendall Marshall and Jerryd Bayless. I wouldn’t be surprised if by the end of the season, Knight isn’t playing shooting guard behind Khris Middleton.
He has the talent to prove me wrong, but I just don’t see Kidd putting his faith in a combo guard. Yet I still think he has a role on this team and a bright future as a contributor and scorer.
What is your one crazy prediction for this season?
Dexter: It don’t get crazier than the Bucks being able to find a trade partner for O.J. Mayo does it? Jared Dudley’s contract will be easy to move but it’s Mayo that can do more on the court for contending teams. Yes, that means I believe that O.J. will flash a bit of his former self in the first half of the season.
I’m not sure who will be interested in his services, but I think John Hammond finds a way to move his contract.
Dorey: My crazy prediction is that the Bucks take home the Rookie of the Year, Most Improved Player, and Defensive Player of the Year awards via Jabari Parker, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Larry Sanders.
Jovaag: Come mid-February, the team will finally cop to the fact that increased three-point shooting is the dominant trend of recent NBA history. The Bucks are long-distance-challenged, ranking 22nd last year in made 3-pointers and 19th in accuracy. Unless Ersan goes all “Three-lee-ya-Sova” on our asses this year, they’ll nab a spot-up ace by the trade deadline who can’t do much besides jack tons of net-burning threes. If Steve Novak can’t make the homecoming to Milwaukee, then look for the addition of a Jimmer-like stand-in to rain from deep. And yes, I am saying I want Jimmer on the Bucks (aaaaaand there goes my credibility).