Milwaukee Bucks: Risk and reward of a potential Jabari Parker contract extension

Parker’s Qualifications

In three NBA seasons Parker has shown vast improvements in his overall game, but most notably in terms of his ability to score.

In his rookie year Parker averaged 12.3 points per game followed up by improvements to 14.1 points in 2015-2016 and 20.1 points per game this past season.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/10/2017.

As Parker has moved to play more of a stretch forward position, allowing Giannis Antetokounmpo to play at power forward, offensively his three-point field goal attempts and accuracy have hit career-highs. Parker made a total of 13 three-point field goals in his first two seasons, followed by a breakout shooting performance this year when he hit 65 three-point field goals at a respectable 36.5 percent clip.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/10/2017.

Parker is an offensive weapon, and all offensive measures point to him bringing at least 20 points and five rebounds to the table on a nightly basis.

If anything, in terms of Parker’s skill-set, is going to concern the Bucks, it’s going to be his defensive deficiencies.

With Parker on the court this season the Bucks allowed 109.3 points to their opponents per 100 possessions. This was the worst mark on the team outside of the likes of Axel Toupane and Gary Payton II who only played a combined eight games.

The leaders in defensive rating of players who average 25 minutes or more per game include Joel Embiid (99.1), Draymond Green (99.3), and Rudy Gobert (100.6). The chances of Parker ever finding his name in that kind of company are close to zero, but it’s the disparity between him and the rest of his teammates that’s alarming in its own right.

While the Bucks can’t expect Parker to be the best defensive player on the court, they’d certainly hope for a positive net rating. To put it simply, the aim would be for his offensive gains to outweigh his defensive drawbacks.

In the context of the season overall, assessing Parker’s net rating against his teammates may not be entirely fair as the shape of the team changed after Parker’s injury and Khris Middleton‘s return.

The most common five man combination Parker played with this past year — Giannis Antetokounmpo, Matthew Dellavedova, John Henson, and Tony Snell — did not include the likes of Khris Middleton (104.7) or Thon Maker (105.4), who are both considered to be strong defensive players.

In 2015-2016, it included a combination of Antetokounmpo, Michael Carter-Williams, Middleton, and Greg Monroe. In Parker’s rookie season the most common five man combination included Antekokuonmpo, Brandon Knight, O.J. Mayo, and Larry Sanders.

Parker has been faced with three new faces in his most common five man combinations every season in his young career to date, with Antetokounmpo being the only mainstay. Although there’s no doubt Parker has his own issues with awareness defensively, that means it’s also difficult for Bucks management to feel they have an accurate picture of Parker defensively.