What impact will the injury have on Brogdon’s free agency?
Before exploring the variety of ways in which this injury could affect Brogdon’s next contract when he hits free agency this summer, it’s important to acknowledge a simple fact. That is, this injury will absolutely have some effect, whether positive or negative, on that pay day.
Whatever path Brogdon was on in terms of free agency prior to Saturday’s MRI is one that he will no longer have the option of traveling down.
Between college and his time in the NBA, Brogdon hasn’t exactly been a stranger to injuries. This latest instance arriving so close to him hitting the open market may well provide cause for concern for teams who were prepared to throw a lucrative offer sheet his way in the summer.
If his injury ultimately sinks the Bucks, and they stumble through the regular season and suffer a swift and premature exit in the postseason, Brogdon’s value could still soar, in spite of injury concerns.
In that scenario, Milwaukee would be left in no doubt as to Brogdon’s importance to their plans, and rival teams may believe his contributions can stretch beyond his already impressive stats and start to imagine what the addition of Brogdon could do for their rosters.
If the Bucks go on a hot streak without him, powering through to the end of the regular season and making light work of the first two rounds of the postseason, Brogdon’s influence would then be at risk of being significantly minimized. Not only could Mirotic jump past him in terms of Milwaukee’s offseason priorities, but would Brogdon even be able to get his starting spot back for the latter stages of the playoffs?
That scenario is obviously the dream for the Bucks as it sees the team excel at a crucial juncture in the season, but it could also lead to a slightly quieter market for Brogdon. This would be incredibly unfortunate for the player, but may well equate to the Bucks’ best chance of bringing all of their relevant free agents back.
Even in a much more modest run where the Bucks simply maintain the high levels of play they’ve produced throughout the season, Brogdon’s importance would be diminished ever so slightly.
Regardless of how the next few weeks play out, and how well or poorly Brogdon may play if he gets the chance to return during a postseason run, it’s almost a guarantee that his value is set for major change. The story of the Bucks’ season will likely be captured by whether his value increases or decreases.