Milwaukee Bucks: A concerning trend that isn’t being talked about enough

There has been a lot of slight concern or worry early in the season from fans of the Milwaukee Bucks. It’s not panic, per se, but it’s more along the lines of anxiousness that they’re still hovering around the 0.500.

As we all know, that is due primarily to the fact that the Bucks haven’t had their full complement of players for a single game yet this season, and their big four of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday have played exactly one game together and it was the season opener.

Much has been written about some of the concerning early trends in the Bucks season like their poor rebounding numbers without Lopez or that their 3-point shooting has been rather cold to begin the season (save for some hot quarters or the odd game here and there). But there was one trend in particular that I noticed recently that stood out to me.

I feel like I need to preface everything so far by saying it’s still early, small sample size theatre is a thing, and this doesn’t mean that the Bucks will be this way for the whole season, especially when they get their players back. It’s something I noticed and thought it could use some diving into.

A concerning trend for the Milwaukee Bucks that isn’t being talked about enough

For the season, the Bucks are sitting at a minus-0.9 net rating. It’s about middle-of-the-pack in regards to the rest of the league and suggests the Bucks are about where they deserve to be this early in the season at around 0.500.

However, when you look at the Bucks’ net rating by quarter, it gets a little interesting.

• 1st quarter: +0.5
• 2nd quarter: +5.6
• 3rd quarter: -9.4
• 4th quarter: +4.0

I’m not overly concerned with the first quarter as it’s early and that number has fluctuated quite a bit. That third-quarter number was bad before the game against the Sixers and has gotten worse.

Although their 106.0 offensive rating in the third quarter isn’t great, it’s consistent with their offensive rating in the second and fourth quarters, which are within a point or so of each other. The concerning part is that they’re posting an abysmal 115.5 defensive rating. Their 112.4 defensive rating in the first quarter is also bad, but they somewhat make up for it with an offensive rating of nearly 113.

By comparison over the last three seasons, this is easily the worst they’ve performed in any quarter as they’ve posted a positive net rating in every quarter except for the fourth quarter last season where they were minus-1.7 for some reason.

Going through some of their rate stats in the third, the most obvious reason as to why their net rating is so poor is because their defensive rebounding rate falls off a cliff in the third.

• 1st: 78.2%
• 2nd: 75.9%
• 3rd: 64.2%
• 4th: 75.3%

What is most strange to me about this is that it’s not as if the Bucks don’t have their best players out there for the third quarter. They’re always starting the third with their starters or who you would think are the best players, including Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Looking at their last three games before last night, the New York Knicks went on a 21-8 run in the third, the Washington Wizards went on a 17-4 run, and the Sixers made runs of 10-3 and 11-2.

Those three games in particular have tanked their third-quarter net rating. Before that, the Bucks were minus-0.4 in the third quarter. That means in those three games, the Bucks were minus-44.3 in the third quarter. Their net rating in the other three quarters was all positive.

Even despite having a strong third quarter against the Knicks on Wednesday, they still gave up their 24-point lead in the fourth quarter before pulling away late. Part of this can certainly be explained by Seth Partnow’s “rubber band effect” which essentially means that the larger a lead gets, the stronger chance the lead will be reduced.

What is interesting is that the Bucks’ defensive rebounding rate was still by far its lowest in the third quarter of games in their first eight at 60.7 percent. Part of that can be attributed to Lopez not being in the starting unit to begin the second half, but their DREB% is about 17 percent higher in the first quarter when Lopez would be playing as well.

That stat, and that their turnover rate is also at its lowest in the third quarter, are the most interesting numbers to me. They aren’t turning the ball over a ton, but are still allowing a ton of points because they aren’t finishing possessions by grabbing the rebound.

I can’t quite explain why the Bucks don’t rebound in the third quarter. Looking at their rotations for their last three games courtesy of Popcorn Machine, Antetokounmpo has been either the last or second last starter to sub out of the game.

Part of the blame can be given attributed to the Bucks starting both Antetokounmpo brothers for some games or having Giannis as the center as they’ve done better when Bobby Portis has started the last two games. But it still wouldn’t explain why they rebound much better in the first quarter when those same players are on the court.

All in all, there isn’t much to take from this so far, but it’s an interesting trend to note as the Bucks continue their road trip and beyond without Lopez.